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The length of time of calls made to a support helpline follows an exponential distribution with an average duration of 40 minutes so that \(\lambda=1 / 40=.025 .\) a. What is the probability that a call to the helpline lasts less than 5 minutes? b. What is the probability that a call to the helpline lasts more than 50 minutes? c. What is the probability that a call lasts between 20 and 30 minutes? d. Tchebysheff's Theorem says that the interval \(40 \pm 2(40)\) should contain at least \(75 \%\) of the population. What is the actual probability that the call times lie in this interval?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Based on the calculations, we found the following probabilities for call durations: a. The probability that a call lasts less than 5 minutes is approximately 11.75%. b. The probability that a call lasts more than 50 minutes is approximately 28.65%. c. The probability that a call lasts between 20 and 30 minutes is approximately 9.54%. d. The actual probability that call times lie in the interval 40 ± 2(40) is approximately 95.02%, which is higher than the 75% predicted by Tchebysheff's Theorem. This is because Tchebysheff's Theorem provides a lower bound on the probability and is not specific to the exponential distribution.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the probability a call lasts less than 5 minutes

To calculate this probability, we will use the cdf formula with \(x = 5\) and \(\lambda = 0.025\): \(P(X < 5) = F(5) = 1 - e^{-0.025 \times 5}\) Now, calculate the probability: \(P(X < 5) = 1 - e^{-0.125} \approx 0.1175\)
02

Calculate the probability a call lasts more than 50 minutes

To calculate this probability, we can use the complementary probability (1 - cdf) with \(x = 50\) and \(\lambda = 0.025\): \(P(X > 50) = 1 - F(50) = 1 - (1 - e^{-0.025 \times 50})\) Now, calculate the probability: \(P(X > 50) = e^{-1.25} \approx 0.2865\)
03

Calculate the probability a call lasts between 20 and 30 minutes

To calculate this probability, we will use the cdf formula to find the probabilities for 20 and 30 minutes and subtract them: \(P(20 < X < 30) = F(30) - F(20) = (1 - e^{-0.025 \times 30}) - (1 - e^{-0.025 \times 20})\) Now, calculate the probability: \(P(20 < X < 30) = e^{-0.5} - e^{-0.75} \approx 0.0954\)
04

Calculate the actual probability call times lie in the interval 40 ± 2(40)

First, calculate the lower and upper bounds of the interval: \(40-2(40) = -40\) (Since call duration can't be negative, we'll use 0 as the lower bound) \(40+2(40) = 120\) Now, use the cdf to find the probability call times lie in this interval: \(P(0 < X < 120) = F(120) - F(0) = (1 - e^{-0.025 \times 120}) - (1 - e^{-0.025 \times 0})\) Calculate the probability: \(P(0 < X < 120) = 1 - e^{-3} \approx 0.9502\) The actual probability that the call times lie in this interval is approximately 95.02%, which is higher than the 75% predicted by Tchebysheff's Theorem. This is because Tchebysheff's Theorem provides a lower bound on the probability and is not specific to the exponential distribution.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Density Function (PDF)
The probability density function (PDF) is a fundamental concept used in statistics and probability theory to describe the likelihood of a continuous random variable taking on a particular value. For the exponential distribution, the PDF is defined as:
\[ f(x; \lambda) = \begin{cases} \lambda e^{-\lambda x} & x \geq 0 \ 0 & x < 0 \end{cases} \]
The parameter \( \lambda \) represents the rate at which events happen, known as the rate parameter. In the context of the support helpline example, the value of \( \lambda = 0.025 \) indicates that, on average, calls arrive or happen at a rate of once every 40 minutes.
Understanding the PDF is crucial for predicting the probability of events over specific intervals, which is essential for making informed decisions based on continuous data.
Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)
The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is another vital concept in statistics that provides the probability that a random variable \( X \) will take a value less than or equal to \( x \. The CDF for an exponential distribution is given by:
\[ F(x; \lambda) = 1 - e^{-\lambda x} \]
The CDF climbs from 0 to 1 as \( x \) increases, reflecting the accumulating probability. When solving problems like those in the exercise, the CDF is particularly important as it allows us to evaluate the probability of a random event occurring within a certain time frame. Calculating the difference between CDF values at two points gives the probability of the random variable falling within that interval, thereby addressing questions related to the duration of calls to the helpline.
Tchebysheff's Theorem
Tchebysheff's Theorem is a statistical rule that provides a way to understand the dispersion of data in any probability distribution with a finite mean and variance. It states that for any distribution:
\[ P(|X - \mu| \geq k\sigma) \leq \frac{1}{k^2} \]
where \( \mu \) is the mean, \( \sigma \) is the standard deviation, and \( k \) is any positive constant. The theorem guarantees that at least \( (1 - \frac{1}{k^2}) \) of values from a dataset fall within \( k \) standard deviations from the mean, regardless of the shape of the distribution. In the exercise's context, it was demonstrated how Tchebysheff's Theorem could be conservative, as the actual probability can be higher in specific distributions like the exponential distribution, which is inherently one-sided and does not extend below zero.
Exponential Probability
Exponential probability refers to the likelihood of time until a certain event occurs in processes that are memoryless, meaning past events do not affect the future. The memoryless property is specific to the exponential distribution and implies that the probability of an event occurring in the next instant is always the same, regardless of how much time has elapsed.
Issues a, b, and c in the exercise effectively demonstrate how the exponential distribution can be used to calculate the probability for different time frames. The CDF of the exponential distribution is key to finding these probabilities. Whether we need to find the probability that a call will last less than a certain time, more than a certain time, or between two time points, we use the exponential CDF to obtain the desired exponential probability. This provides a firm basis for anticipating call durations and helps in resource planning for the support helpline.

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