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Suppose that 1 out of every 10 homeowners in the state of California has invested in earthquake insurance. If 15 homeowners are randomly chosen to be interviewed, a. What is the probability that at least one had earthquake insurance? b. What is the probability that four or more have earthquake insurance? c. Within what limits would you expect the number of homeowners insured against earthquakes to fall?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Answer: To find the probability of at least one homeowner having earthquake insurance, we first need to find the probability of no homeowners having insurance and subtract it from 1, using the complement rule. We found the probability of no homeowners having insurance in Step 1 as (9/10)^15. Therefore, the probability of at least one homeowner having earthquake insurance is 1 - (9/10)^15.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate probability of no homeowners having earthquake insurance

First, we need to find the probability of not having earthquake insurance. We are given the probability of having insurance as 1/10, so the probability of not having insurance is 1 - 1/10 which is 9/10. Now we can calculate the probability of none of the 15 homeowners having earthquake insurance: Px(0) = (15 C 0) * (1/10)^0 * (9/10)^(15-0) = (9/10)^15
02

Calculate the probability of at least one homeowner having earthquake insurance

Now we can use the complement rule for the probability of at least one person having earthquake insurance. The complement of "at least one" is "none", so we can subtract the probability calculated in Step 1 from 1: P(at least one) = 1 - P(none) = 1 - (9/10)^15
03

Calculate the probability of four or more homes having earthquake insurance

To find the probability of four or more homes having earthquake insurance, we first find the probability that 0, 1, 2, or 3 homes have insurance and subtract that from 1. P(four or more) = 1 - P(0) - P(1) - P(2) - P(3) Using the binomial probability formula for each value of x, we need to find P(1), P(2), and P(3), and then substitute the values into the above equation to find the final probability.
04

Identify the limits for the number of homeowners insured against earthquakes

To find the limits, we can use the mean and the standard deviation of a binomial distribution. The mean (μ) can be found using the formula: μ = n * p And the standard deviation (σ) can be found using: σ = sqrt(n * p * (1-p)) For a binomial distribution, most values will fall within three standard deviations (99.7%) of the mean. Calculate the mean and standard deviation and use them to find the limits. Overall, the solution involves using the binomial probability formula, complement rule, and the mean and standard deviation of a binomial distribution to answer the given questions.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Complement Rule in Probability
Understanding the complement rule in probability is like learning a shortcut for certain types of calculations. Essentially, the complement rule states that the probability of an event not occurring is equal to one minus the probability that it does occur. This becomes particularly handy when it's easier to calculate the chances of an event not happening than the event happening itself.

For example, in the exercise provided, the probability that at least one out of 15 homeowners has earthquake insurance is more easily found by first calculating the probability that none have insurance, and then using the complement rule. To put it into a formula, if we denote the probability of at least one homeowner having insurance as P(at least one), and the probability of none having insurance as P(none), the rule can be expressed as:

\[\begin{equation}P(at least one) = 1 - P(none)\[\begin{equation}
Applying this to our scenario, if P(none) = \((9/10)^{15}\), then P(at least one) is simply 1 minus this value. This approach often simplifies the calculation process in binomial probability problems.
Mean of a Binomial Distribution
When we talk about the mean of a binomial distribution, we're referring to the expected value or average number of successes in a given number of trials. The mean is calculated as the product of the number of trials (\(n\)) and the probability of success on any given trial (\(p\)).

\[\begin{equation}\text{Mean}, \(mu\) = n * p\[\begin{equation}
In the context of the exercise, where homeowners are randomly chosen for interviews about earthquake insurance, if \(n = 15\) (the number of homeowners interviewed) and \(p = 1/10\) (the probability of a homeowner having insurance), then the mean number of insured homeowners in our sample is \(15 * \frac{1}{10} = 1.5\). This is the 'average' number of homeowners we'd expect to have insurance if we repeated this sampling process many times.
Standard Deviation of a Binomial Distribution
The standard deviation of a binomial distribution measures how spread out the values (in this case, the number of successes) are from the mean. In simpler terms, it tells us how much variability we can expect from the average. For a binomial distribution, the standard deviation (\(\sigma\)) can be calculated using the square root of the product of the number of trials (\(n\)), the probability of success (\(p\)), and the probability of failure (\(1-p\)).

\[\begin{equation}\sigma = \sqrt{n * p * (1-p)}\[\begin{equation}
For our exercise, with \(n = 15\) and \(p = 1/10\), the standard deviation would be \(\sqrt{15 * \frac{1}{10} * \frac{9}{10}}\). This value helps us understand the extent of fluctuation to expect in the number of homeowners with insurance. For instance, if the standard deviation is large, it indicates a high degree of variability around the mean, which might suggest that our sample could be quite different from the general population.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

In 2017 , the average of the revised SAT score (Evidence Based Reading and Writing, and Math) was 1060 out of \(1600 .^{3}\) Suppose that \(45 \%\) of all high school graduates took this test and that 100 high school graduates are randomly selected from throughout the United States. Which of the following random variables have an approximate binomial distribution? If possible, give the values of \(n\) and \(p\). a. The number of students who took the SAT. b. The scores of the 100 students on the SAT. c. The number of students who scored above average on the SAT. d. The length of time it took students to complete the SAT.

The National Hockey League (NHL) has about \(70 \%\) of its players born outside the United States, and of those born outside the United States, approximately \(60 \%\) were born in Canada. \({ }^{5}\) Suppose that \(n=12\) NHL players are selected at random. Let \(x\) be the number of players in the sample born outside of the United States so that \(p=.7,\) and find the following probabilities: a. At least five or more of the sampled players were born outside the United States b. Exactly seven of the players were born outside the United States c. Fewer than six were born outside the United States.

A CEO is considering buying an insurance policy to cover possible losses incurred by marketing a new product. If the product is a complete failure, a loss of \(\$ 800,000\) would be incurred; if it is only moderately successful, a loss of \(\$ 250,000\) would be incurred. Insurance actuaries have determined that the probabilities that the product will be a failure or only moderately successful are .01 and \(.05,\) respectively. Assuming that the \(\mathrm{CEO}\) is willing to ignore all other possible losses, what premium should the insurance company charge for a policy in order to break even?

Use the probability distribution for the random variable \(x\) to answer the questions. $$\begin{array}{l|lllll}x & 0 & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 \\\\\hline p(x) & .1 & .3 & .3 & ? & .1\end{array}$$ What is the probability that \(x\) is 3 or less?

Evaluate the binomial probabilities in Exercises \(16-19\). $$ C_{0}^{4}(.05)^{0}(.95)^{4} $$

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