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Consider a binomial random variable with \(n=8\) and \(p=.7 .\) Let \(x\) be the number of successes in the sample. Evaluate the probabilities in Exercises \(2-6 .\) $$ P(x<3) $$

Short Answer

Expert verified
Answer: The probability is approximately 0.07024 or 7.024%.

Step by step solution

01

Setup the probability mass function (PMF) formula

We will start with the formula for the probability mass function of a binomial random variable: $$ P(x=k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} $$
02

Calculate the probabilities for x = 0, 1, and 2

Now, we need to calculate \(P(x=0)\), \(P(x=1)\), and \(P(x=2)\) using the PMF formula. $$ P(x=0) = \binom{8}{0} 0.7^0 (1-0.7)^{8-0} \\ P(x=1) = \binom{8}{1} 0.7^1 (1-0.7)^{8-1} \\ P(x=2) = \binom{8}{2} 0.7^2 (1-0.7)^{8-2} $$
03

Substitute binomial coefficients

Next, we substitute the binomial coefficients. $$ P(x=0) = \frac{8!}{0!8!} 0.7^0 (1-0.7)^{8-0} \\ P(x=1) = \frac{8!}{1!7!} 0.7^1 (1-0.7)^{8-1} \\ P(x=2) = \frac{8!}{2!6!} 0.7^2 (1-0.7)^{8-2} $$
04

Evaluate the probabilities

Now, we evaluate the probabilities for \(x=0\), \(x=1\), and \(x=2\). $$ P(x=0) \approx 0.00057 \\ P(x=1) \approx 0.01017 \\ P(x=2) \approx 0.0595 $$
05

Calculate the probability P(x < 3)

Finally, we add the probabilities of having 0, 1, or 2 successes in the sample to find the probability \(P(x<3)\). $$ P(x<3) = P(x=0) + P(x=1) + P(x=2) \\ P(x<3) \approx 0.00057 + 0.01017 + 0.0595 \\ P(x<3) \approx 0.07024 $$ So, the probability of having fewer than 3 successes in the sample is approximately 0.07024 or 7.024%.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Mass Function
The Probability Mass Function (PMF) is a fundamental concept in statistics, particularly in the study of discrete random variables such as binomial distributions. For a given discrete random variable, the PMF provides the probability that the variable takes on a specific value. In simple terms, if you want to know the likelihood of a particular outcome, the PMF is your go-to tool.
The PMF for a binomial distribution is given by the formula:
  • \(P(x = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k}\)
This formula tells us the probability of getting exactly \(k\) successes in \(n\) independent trials, where each trial has a success probability of \(p\).
In the original exercise, we used this PMF to find the probability of different outcomes, such as having fewer than three successes.
Binomial Coefficient
The binomial coefficient, represented as \(\binom{n}{k}\), is a key component of the binomial PMF. It indicates the number of ways to choose \(k\) successes out of \(n\) trials. You might also know it as "n choose k."
The formula for the binomial coefficient is:
  • \(\binom{n}{k} = \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!}\)
This mathematical expression calculates how many different combinations of \(k\) successes you can have in \(n\) trials without considering the order. It's a crucial part of determining the probability of any single type of event.
In the given exercise, we calculated the binomial coefficients for \(x = 0\), \(x = 1\), and \(x = 2\) using \(n = 8\) to find out different probabilities for each of these numbers of successes.
Probability Calculation
Calculating probabilities using the binomial distribution involves plugging values into the PMF formula. In the provided example, we went step by step to find the probabilities for \(x = 0\), \(x = 1\), and \(x = 2\), which means zero, one, or two successes, respectively, when \(n = 8\) and the success probability \(p = 0.7\).
Here's a brief guide on the calculation process:
  • Determine the binomial coefficient using \(\binom{n}{k}\).
  • Calculate each part of the formula: \(p^k\) and \((1-p)^{n-k}\).
  • Multiply the values together for the probability of \(x = k\).
Finally, to find the probability of having fewer than three successes, simply sum the probabilities of \(x = 0\), \(x = 1\), and \(x = 2\).
So, \(P(x < 3) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + P(x = 2)\).
Random Variables
In statistics, a random variable represents a numerically valued function defined over a set of possible outcomes. It's not a fixed number; rather, it varies depending on how the random process occurs. Random variables can be discrete or continuous, but in a binomial distribution scenario, we deal with discrete random variables.
For the binomial distribution, the random variable \(x\) represents the number of successes in \(n\) trials. Each trial is independent, with a fixed probability of success; thus, the outcome is unpredictable and varies from trial to trial.
In our example, \(x\) was defined as "the number of successes" with \(n = 8\), meaning it can take any integer value between 0 and 8. This variability helps in modeling different real-world scenarios, where outcomes naturally fluctuate across attempts.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Under what conditions can the Poisson random variable be used to approximate a probability associated with the binomial random variable?

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