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A random sample of \(n=1000\) observations from a binomial population produced \(x=279 .\) a. If your research hypothesis is that \(p\) is less than .3 , what should you choose for your alternative hypothesis? Your null hypothesis? b. What is the critical value that determines the rejection region for your test with \(\alpha=.05 ?\) c. Do the data provide sufficient evidence to indicate that \(p\) is less than \(.3 ?\) Use a \(5 \%\) significance level.

Short Answer

Expert verified
b) What is the critical value for the rejection region in this test? c) Based on the data, does it provide enough evidence that the proportion of success is less than 0.3? a) The null hypothesis (H鈧) is that the proportion of success (p) is greater than or equal to 0.3: \(H_0: p \geq 0.3\). The alternative hypothesis (H鈧) is that the proportion of success (p) is less than 0.3: \(H_1: p < 0.3\). b) The critical value for the rejection region in this test is approximately: \(Z_{\alpha} = -1.645\). c) Based on the data, there is not enough evidence to conclude that the proportion of success is less than 0.3.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the null and alternative hypotheses.

The research hypothesis is that \(p\) is less than \(0.3\). This is the alternative hypothesis. The null hypothesis is that \(p\) is equal to or greater than \(0.3\). So, we have: Null hypothesis (H鈧): \(p \geq 0.3\) Alternative hypothesis (H鈧): \(p < 0.3\)
02

Calculate the test statistic.

The test statistic, Z-score, is given by: \(Z=\frac{\hat{p}-p_{0}}{\sqrt{\frac{p_{0}(1-p_{0})}{n}}}\) where \(\hat{p}=\frac{x}{n},\) \(p_{0}\) is the value in the null hypothesis, and n is the sample size. In this case, \(\hat{p}=\frac{279}{1000}=0.279,\) \(p_{0}=0.3,\) and \(n=1000.\) Calculate the test statistic: \(Z=\frac{0.279-0.3}{\sqrt{\frac{0.3(1-0.3)}{1000}}}=-1.44\)
03

Calculate the critical value.

The rejection region is determined by 伪, which is \(0.05.\) Since we have a one-tailed test (less than), we will look for a critical value associated with a \(5\%\) significance level in the left tail. Using a Z-table, we find that the critical value for a one-tailed test at a \(5\%\) significance level is approximately: \(Z_{\alpha}=-1.645\)
04

Compare the test statistic to the critical value.

The test statistic, \(Z=-1.44\), is greater than the critical value, \(Z_{\alpha}=-1.645.\) Since test statistic is greater than critical value (not in rejection region), we do not reject the null hypothesis.
05

Make a conclusion.

The data does not provide sufficient evidence to indicate that \(p\) is less than \(0.3\) at a \(5\%\) significance level. Therefore, we cannot conclude that the proportion of success is less than \(0.3.\)

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Distribution
The binomial distribution is a probability distribution that summarizes the likelihood of a value taking one of two possible outcomes, commonly referred to as 'success' and 'failure'. This distribution is appropriate when you perform an experiment that's repeated several times independently, and each experiment, or trial, has only two outcomes.

For example, if you have a population and you are interested in determining the number of people who respond "yes" to a particular question, the binomial distribution is the right choice. In the original exercise, we have 1000 observations where 279 are considered successes. Thus, the probability used in this binomial setting is represented by "p" and is what we wish to test.

This distribution helps to calculate probabilities of having a certain number of "successes" in the sample, given the probability of success remains consistent across those trials.
Null Hypothesis
The null hypothesis, denoted as \(H_0\), is a fundamental part of any hypothesis test. It is the statement being tested, and it usually suggests there is no effect or no difference. In other words, it's a hypothesis that the observed effect is just due to chance.

In the context of our exercise, the null hypothesis is that the probability \(p\) of success (where 'success' means achieving the interest condition) is equal to or greater than 0.3. This sets a baseline that the researcher aims to test against, with the possibility of rejecting it based on the evidence provided by the data.

Accepting the null hypothesis implies there isn't enough statistical evidence to suggest that \(p\) is indeed less than 0.3, and thus, this hypothesis remains the valid assertion.
Alternative Hypothesis
The alternative hypothesis, denoted as \(H_1\), represents what researchers aim to prove. It is often the opposite of the null hypothesis and suggests that there is a significant effect or a notable difference.

In the problem at hand, the alternative hypothesis states that \(p < 0.3\). This implies the belief that the probability of success is indeed less than 0.3, contrasting the null hypothesis. The success of this hypothesis would depend on the statistical evidence provided by the data collected from the sample.

The alternative hypothesis is essential in hypothesis testing because it frames the test's purpose, directing the analysis focus. It's what motivates the testing and analysis and could lead to significant findings if statistically proved.
Significance Level
The significance level, denoted by \(\alpha\), is a threshold in hypothesis testing, dictating how much risk there is in rejecting the null hypothesis. It is the probability of committing a Type I error, which happens when we incorrectly reject the null hypothesis when it is true.

In our specific exercise, the significance level is set at \( \alpha = 0.05 \), meaning there is a 5% chance of concluding there is an effect, when there is none. Setting a lower 伪 reduces the risk of a Type I error but can increase the risk of a Type II error (not rejecting a false null hypothesis).

The significance level is used to determine the critical value, which in this problem was calculated as approximately -1.645 for a one-tailed test. Comparing the test statistic to this critical value helps in deciding whether or not we should reject the null hypothesis based on statistical evidence.

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