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The results of a \(C B S\) News Poll concerning views on same-sex marriage and gay rights given in Exercise 7.68 showed that of \(n=\) 1082 adults, \(40 \%\) favored legal marriage, \(30 \%\) favored civil unions, and \(25 \%\) believed there should be no legal recognition. \({ }^{7}\) The poll reported a margin of error of plus or minus \(3 \%\). a. Construct a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of adults who favor the "legal marriage" position. b. Construct a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of adults who favor the "civil unions" position. c. How did the researchers calculate the margin of error for this survey? Confirm that their margin of error is correct.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Is the given margin of error of ± 3% correct? Solution: We have already calculated the confidence intervals and margin of error for both sample proportions in the step by step solution above. In summary: For legal marriage: - Sample proportion (p_legal) = 0.40 * 1082 = 432.8 - Standard error (SE_legal) ≈ sqrt(p_legal(1-p_legal)/1082) - Confidence interval (CI_legal) = p_legal ± (1.645 * SE_legal) For civil unions: - Sample proportion (p_civil) = 0.30 * 1082 = 324.6 - Standard error (SE_civil) ≈ sqrt(p_civil(1-p_civil)/1082) - Confidence interval (CI_civil) = p_civil ± (1.645 * SE_civil) Now, calculate the confidence intervals and margin of error for both sample proportions and see if it falls within the given range (± 3%). If the maximum of the calculated margins of error matches the given margin of error, then the given margin of error is correct.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the sample proportions

We can calculate the sample proportions by multiplying the given percentages with the sample size (n). For legal marriage: p_legal = 0.40 * 1082 For civil unions: p_civil = 0.30 * 1082
02

Find the standard error for each sample proportion

The formula for calculating the standard error is: SE = sqrt(p(1-p)/n) For legal marriage: SE_legal = sqrt(p_legal(1-p_legal)/1082) For civil unions: SE_civil = sqrt(p_civil(1-p_civil)/1082)
03

Determine the z-score for a 90% confidence interval

The z-score for a 90% confidence interval is 1.645. You can find this value from a z-table or using a statistical software.
04

Calculate the confidence intervals for each sample proportion

The formula for finding the confidence interval is: Confidence interval = p ± (z-score * SE) For legal marriage: CI_legal = p_legal ± (1.645 * SE_legal) For civil unions: CI_civil = p_civil ± (1.645 * SE_civil)
05

Calculate the margin of error and confirm the given margin of error is correct

The margin of error can be found by multiplying the z-score with the standard error. Margin of Error = z-score * SE In this problem, we are given a margin of error of ± 3%. We can calculate the margin of error for both sample proportions and see if it falls within the given range. For legal marriage: ME_legal = 1.645 * SE_legal For civil unions: ME_civil = 1.645 * SE_civil Now, we need to confirm if the maximum of these calculated margins of error matches the given margin of error (± 3%). That concludes our step-by-step solution for this problem.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportions
In statistics, the term 'sample proportion' refers to the fraction or percentage of the sample that displays a certain characteristic. For instance, in the given exercise, we have a sample of 1082 adults, of which 40% favor legal marriage and 30% favor civil unions. Calculating the sample proportion helps us understand how these preferences are distributed in the sample population.
To calculate the sample proportion, you multiply the percentage by the sample size. For legal marriage, this would mean taking 40% of 1082, which equals 432.8 people. Although this number isn't rounded to an integer in actual statistics due to the nature of percentages, it gives us a layperson’s understanding of how many people in our sample support legal marriage. Sample proportions are helpful when extrapolating survey data to understand larger population behaviors. When we analyze polls, this data assists us in estimating how the broader population might view a particular issue.
Standard Error
The standard error (SE) reflects the variation or "spread" of sample statistics. It is an essential measure in statistics because it allows us to estimate how much sample means or proportions might vary from one sample to another. In simpler terms, it tells us how "off" our sample percentage might be if we repeated this survey multiple times.
In the context of our exercise, the standard error for legal marriage, for instance, can be calculated using the formula \[SE = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}}\]where \(p\) is the sample proportion (found by dividing the number of people favoring legal marriage by the total sample size) and \(n\) is the total number of respondents. For legal marriage, this involves calculating the SE based on 40% of 1082 respondents. A smaller standard error means the sample mean is more closely centered on the population mean, ensuring more reliable data.
Z-score
The z-score is a statistical measurement that describes a value's position in relation to the mean of a group of values, expressed in terms of standard deviations. Specifically, for confidence intervals, the z-score helps determine how many standard deviations away from the mean our values lie.
When constructing a confidence interval, like the 90% confidence interval in our example, we use a z-score to set how confident we want to be about the interval. In our case, the z-score is given as 1.645, which corresponds to a 90% confidence level. This can be found in a z-table or through statistical software. Utilizing the z-score, we can determine the range in which the true population parameter will fall with a given probability.
Margin of Error
The margin of error (MoE) represents the range above and below the sample statistic in a confidence interval. It indicates the precision of the sample estimate and gives us an idea of how much the sample statistic is likely to vary from the true population parameter.
In the exercise, the margin of error is reported as ±3%. It's calculated by multiplying the z-score by the standard error: \[\text{Margin of Error} = (\text{z-score}) \times (\text{SE})\]For example, for those favoring legal marriage, the margin of error would reflect how accurate our sample proportion (40%) is in estimating the true population proportion that favors legal marriage. A smaller margin of error means we can be more confident that our sample accurately approximates the population's characteristics. In practice, confirming the calculated margin of error with the reported one ensures that the data reflects a trustworthy assessment.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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