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Let \(x\) be a binomial random variable with \(n=10\) and \(p=.4 .\) Find these values: a. \(P(x=4)\) b. \(P(x \geq 4)\) c. \(P(x>4)\) d. \(P(x \leq 4)\) e. \(\mu=n p\) f. \(\sigma=\sqrt{n p q}\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
In a task with 10 trials and a probability of success at 0.4, the probabilities for different outcomes and the mean and standard deviation are as follows: a. The probability of exactly 4 successes (P(x=4)) is approximately 0.2508. b. The probability of at least 4 successes (P(x≥4)) is approximately 0.6179. c. The probability of more than 4 successes (P(x>4)) is approximately 0.3671. d. The probability of up to 4 successes (P(x≤4)) is approximately 0.6329. e. The mean (μ) of this binomial random variable is 4. f. The standard deviation (σ) of this binomial random variable is approximately 1.549.

Step by step solution

01

Notation and formulas

Let's organize the given information: Number of trials, n = 10 Probability of success, p = 0.4 Probability of failure, q = 1 - p = 0.6 We will use the binomial formula for probability \(P(X=k) =C(n,k) p^k q^{n-k}\) and the cumulative binomial formula (sum of probabilities).
02

Calculate P(x=4)

To calculate \(P(x=4)\) we can use the binomial formula given as: $$ P(x=4) = C(10,4)\cdot 0.4^4 \cdot 0.6^6 $$ Now, calculating the values: $$ P(x=4) = \binom{10}{4} \cdot 0.4^4 \cdot 0.6^6 \approx 0.2508 $$
03

Calculate P(x≥4) and P(x>4)

For these two probabilities, we will use the cumulative probability formula. We first calculate \(P(x < 4)\) and then subtract it from 1 to get the probability \(P(x \geq 4)\). Next, subtract the probability we computed in step 2 (\(P(x=4)\)) to get \(P(x>4)\). 1. \(P(x \geq 4) = 1 - P(x<4) = 1 - (P(x=0) + P(x=1) + P(x=2) + P(x=3))\) Calculate each probability individually: $$P(x=0) = \binom{10}{0} \cdot 0.4^0 \cdot 0.6^{10} \approx 0.0060$$ $$P(x=1) = \binom{10}{1} \cdot 0.4^1 \cdot 0.6^9 \approx 0.0401$$ $$P(x=2) = \binom{10}{2} \cdot 0.4^2 \cdot 0.6^8 \approx 0.1209$$ $$P(x=3) = \binom{10}{3} \cdot 0.4^3 \cdot 0.6^7 \approx 0.2150$$ Now sum these probabilities and subtract the result from 1. $$P(x \geq 4) = 1 - 0.0060 - 0.0401 - 0.1209 - 0.2150 \approx 0.6179$$ 2. \(P(x > 4) = P(x \geq 4) - P(x=4)\) $$P(x > 4) = 0.6179 - 0.2508 \approx 0.3671$$
04

Calculate P(x≤4)

Since we have already calculated the individual probabilities, we can just add them up. $$P(x \leq 4) = P(x=0) + P(x=1) + P(x=2) + P(x=3) + P(x=4) = 0.0060 + 0.0401 + 0.1209 + 0.2150 + 0.2508 \approx 0.6329$$
05

Calculate the mean, μ=np

Now, we can calculate \(\mu\), the mean of a binomial random variable with n=10 trials and a probability p=0.4 of success using the formula \(\mu=np\). $$ \mu = 10 \cdot 0.4 = 4 $$
06

Calculate the standard deviation, σ=sqrt(npq)

Finally, we can calculate the standard deviation of a binomial random variable with n=10 trials, a probability p=0.4 of success, and a probability q=0.6 of failure using the formula \(\sigma=\sqrt{npq}\). $$ \sigma = \sqrt{10 \cdot 0.4 \cdot 0.6} = \sqrt{2.4} \approx 1.549 $$ Now, we have our results: a. \(P(x=4) \approx 0.2508\) b. \(P(x \geq 4) \approx 0.6179\) c. \(P(x>4) \approx 0.3671\) d. \(P(x \leq 4) \approx 0.6329\) e. \(\mu = 4\) f. \(\sigma \approx 1.549\)

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability
Probability is a measure that quantifies the likelihood of a certain event occurring. In a binomial distribution, probability plays a crucial role in understanding how often a specific outcome happens when an experiment is repeated a number of times.

In the context of binomial probability, we use formulas to calculate different probabilities, such as finding the chance of getting exactly 4 successes in 10 trials with a probability of success per trial being 0.4. Here, the binomial probability formula is:
  • \(P(X=k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k q^{n-k}\)
Where \(\binom{n}{k}\) is the binomial coefficient, calculated as the number of combinations of \(n\) trials and \(k\) successes.

By plugging in the values to solve for various probabilities, such as \(P(x=4)\), you gain deeper insights into the likelihood of various outcomes during repeated trials.
Random Variable
A random variable is a numerical description of the results of a statistical experiment. In a binomial distribution, the random variable is typically denoted as \(X\) and represents the number of successes in a set number of trials.

For example, in the problem scenario provided, \(X\) indicates the number of successes in 10 trials where each trial has a success probability of 0.4.

The possible values of \(X\) range from 0 to 10, as these are the possible outcomes when considering the number of times the trial could result in a 'success'.

Understanding random variables is essential in probability as they allow us to quantify and analyze the results of random processes.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a measure that is used to quantify the amount of variation in a set of data values. In the context of a binomial distribution, it provides insight into how much the outcomes of a random variable, like our \(X\), deviate from the mean, \(\mu\).

The standard deviation is calculated using the formula for a binomial distribution:
  • \(\sigma = \sqrt{npq}\)
Where \(n\) is the number of trials, \(p\) is the probability of success in each trial, and \(q\) is the probability of failure.

By computing the standard deviation, you gain an understanding of how "spread out" the distribution of successes is around the mean value \(\mu\), providing further clarity on the predictability or variability of the experiment.
Mean
The mean, also known as the expected value, represents the average outcome expected from a statistical experiment, particularly in a binomial distribution.

It can be calculated using the formula:
  • \(\mu = np\)
Where \(n\) is the number of trials and \(p\) is the probability of success per trial.

In our scenario, with 10 trials and a 0.4 probability of success per trial, the mean is \(4\).

This means that, over numerous sets of 10 trials, we would expect an average of 4 successes, highlighting the central tendency of our binomial random variable. Understanding the mean provides a simple measure of the center of probability for the distribution.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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