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Use the appropriate slider on the Power of a \(z\) -Test applet to answer the following questions. Write a sentence for each part, describing what you see using the applet. a. What effect does increasing the sample size have on the power of the test? b. What effect does increasing the distance between the true value of \(\mu\) and the hypothesized value, \(\mu=880,\) have on the power of the test? c. What effect does decreasing the significance level \(\alpha\) have on the power of the test?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Answer: The power of a z-test is affected in the following ways: 1. Increasing the sample size increases the power of the test. It makes the test more sensitive to detecting significant differences between the true and hypothesized values. 2. Increasing the distance between the true value and the hypothesized value also increases the power of the test, as it makes the deviation more detectable statistically. 3. Decreasing the significance level will generally decrease the power of the test as it requires stronger evidence to reject the null hypothesis. This reduces the likelihood of detecting a significant difference when one actually exists but reduces the chances of false positives and may increase the chances of false negatives.

Step by step solution

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a. Effect of increasing sample size on power of the test

Increasing the sample size tends to increase the power of the test. This occurs because as the sample size gets larger, the standard error of the sample mean decreases, which makes the test more sensitive to detect a significant difference between the true and hypothesized values.
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b. Effect of increasing distance between true value and hypothesized value on power of the test

Increasing the distance between the true value of \(\mu\) and the hypothesized value of \(\mu=880\) will increase the power of the test. This is because the larger the difference between the true value and the hypothesized value, the more likely it is for the test to detect a significant difference, as the deviation will be more detectable statistically.
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c. Effect of decreasing significance level \(\alpha\) on power of the test

Decreasing the significance level \(\alpha\) will generally decrease the power of the test. A smaller significance level means that we require stronger evidence to reject the null hypothesis. As a result, the likelihood of detecting a significant difference when one actually exists decreases, leading to a lower power of the test. However, please keep in mind that a lower significance level also reduces the chances of false positives (Type I errors) but may increase the chances of false negatives (Type II errors).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Size and Power
Understanding the relationship between sample size and the power of a statistical test is crucial for any researcher. Sample size, often denoted as 'n', refers to the number of observations or data points in a study. The power of a test is the probability that the test correctly rejects a false null hypothesis, essentially detecting an effect when there is one.

When you increase the sample size of your study, you are imbuing the test with more sensitivity. This is because a larger sample size tends to reduce the standard error – the variability of the sample mean from the population mean – which in turn makes the test more adept at detecting true effects. Imagine you're listening for a faint sound; the quieter the room (the smaller the error), the easier it is to hear (detect the effect).

For instance, consider a scenario where you’re testing a new medication. With just a handful of patients, it might be hard to tell whether the medicine is genuinely effective due to the natural variability in patient outcomes. However, by increasing the sample size – recruiting more patients into the trial – you reduce this variability and increase the chances that any true improvement in patient health due to the medication can be statistically confirmed.

This principle is why responsible researchers and scientists often seek to have as large a sample size as possible within practical and ethical limits. However, it's important to note that after reaching a certain threshold, increasing the sample size yields diminishing returns in power enhancement, and other considerations such as cost and feasibility come into play.
Effect Size on Power
The concept of effect size is integral to understanding the power of a statistical test. Effect size measures the magnitude of the difference between two groups or the strength of a relationship in your study. It's like measuring how strong a spice flavor is in a dish; the larger the effect size, the more potent the flavor.

In the context of a hypothesis test, increasing the effect size between the true value of the parameter under investigation and the hypothesized value indeed enhances the power of the test. To visualize this, think about trying to spot a red apple in a sea of green ones; the more vivid the red (the larger the effect size), the easier it is to spot (the higher the power of the test).

Let's tie this to the medical trial example again. If the new medicine has a profound effect on patient health, represented by a large effect size, then even a relatively small sample might suffice to detect the medication’s efficacy. Conversely, if the medicine's effect is subtle, a larger sample may be required to notice any genuine improvement over the placebo.

This relationship implies that researchers must consider not only how many participants they have but also how significant the expected outcomes are. Designing studies to detect smaller effect sizes usually involves increasing the sample size, which can be more costly and time-consuming.
Significance Level and Power
When determining the significance level for a statistical test, researchers are setting a threshold to decide when to reject the null hypothesis. The standard significance levels are often set at 0.05, 0.01, or 0.10. This alpha level mirrors the risk of committing a Type I error – rejecting a true null hypothesis, or in other words, finding a 'false positive.'

A lower significance level means being more conservative with your conclusions, requiring stronger evidence to claim an effect. In the sound analogy, it's like demanding the sound to be louder before you agree that it's not a figment of your imagination. But as you set a lower alpha, the power of the test decreases because you are less likely to detect an effect unless it's very strong.

In practice, when you decrease the significance level, you're increasing the burden of proof. Returning to our medical trial, if you set a very low significance level, you'd only conclude the medication is effective if there’s overwhelming evidence. While this strict criterion reduces the chance of wrongly declaring the medicine effective (Type I error), it may also risk not recognizing a true effect (increasing Type II errors).

It's a balancing act; the choice of significance level affects how conclusive your findings are. It also impacts the sample size needed for the study. If you're working with a low significance level, you may require more data to achieve the same power as you would with a higher level, all other factors being equal. It's essential to consider the implications of this trade-off when designing an experiment.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Man's Best Friend The Humane Society reports that there are approximately 65 million dogs owned in the United States and that approximately in \(40 \%\) of all U.S. households own at least one dog. In a random sample of 300 households, 114 households said that they owned at least one dog. Does this data provide sufficient evidence to indicate that the proportion of households with at least one dog is different from that reported by the Humane Society? Test using \(\alpha=.05 .\)

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What's Normal? What is normal, when it comes to people's body temperatures? A random sample of 130 human body temperatures, provided by Allen Shoemaker \(^{3}\) in the Journal of Statistical Education, had a mean of 98.25 degrees and a standard deviation of 0.73 degrees. Does the data indicate that the average body temperature for healthy humans is different from 98.6 degrees, the usual average temperature cited by physicians and others? Test using both methods given in this section. a. Use the \(p\) -value approach with \(\alpha=.05\). b. Use the critical value approach with \(\alpha=.05 .\) c. Compare the conclusions from parts a and b. Are they the same? d. The 98.6 standard was derived by a German doctor in \(1868,\) who claimed to have recorded 1 million temperatures in the course of his research. \({ }^{4}\) What conclusions can you draw about his research in light of your conclusions in parts a and \(b\) ?

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