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Last year's records of auto accidents occurring on a given section of highway were classified according to whether the resulting damage was \(\$ 1000\) or more and to whether a physical injury resulted from the accident. The data follows: $$\begin{array}{lcc} & \text { Under } \$ 1000 & \$ 1000 \text { or More } \\\\\hline \text { Number of Accidents } & 32 & 41 \\\\\text { Number Involving Injuries } & 10 & 23\end{array}$$ a. Estimate the true proportion of accidents involving injuries when the damage was \(\$ 1000\) or more for similar sections of highway and find the margin of error. b. Estimate the true difference in the proportion of accidents involving injuries for accidents with damage under \(\$ 1000\) and those with damage of \(\$ 1000\) or more. Use a \(95 \%\) confidence interval.

Short Answer

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Question: Estimate the true proportion of accidents involving injuries when the damage was $1000 or more and find the margin of error. Additionally, estimate the true difference in the proportion of accidents involving injuries for accidents with damage under $1000 and those with damage of $1000 or more, using a 95% confidence interval. Answer: The estimated proportion of accidents involving injuries with damage $1000 or more is approximately $\frac{23}{41}$. The margin of error for this proportion is approximately \(1.96*\sqrt{\frac{\frac{23}{41}(1-\frac{23}{41})}{41}}\). The 95% confidence interval for the difference in proportions of accidents involving injuries for accidents under $1000 and those with damage $1000 or more is \((\frac{23}{41} - \frac{10}{32})\pm 1.96*\sqrt{\frac{\frac{23}{41}(1-\frac{23}{41})}{41}+\frac{\frac{10}{32}(1-\frac{10}{32})}{32}}\).

Step by step solution

01

We will find the proportion of accidents involving injuries for those with damage \(1000 or more by taking the number of such accidents involving injuries (23) and dividing it by the total number of accidents with \)1000 or more damage (41). So, the proportion is \(\frac{23}{41}\). #Step 2: Calculate Margin of Error#

To find the margin of error, use the formula for a one-proportion confidence interval: \(MOE = z*\sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}}\). We are given a 95% confidence level, so we will use a \(z\)-score of 1.96. In this case, \(\hat{p}=\frac{23}{41}\) and \(n=41\). Plugging in these values, we have \(MOE=1.96*\sqrt{\frac{\frac{23}{41}(1-\frac{23}{41})}{41}}\). #Part b: Confidence Interval for Difference in Proportions# #Step 1: Find Proportions of Injuries for Both Groups#
02

We already calculated the proportion of injuries when damage was \(1000 or more, which is \)\frac{23}{41}\(. Now we need to calculate the proportion of injuries when the damage was under \)1000. For this, take the number of accidents involving injuries (10) and divide it by the total number of accidents under \(1000 (32). So, the proportion is \)\frac{10}{32}$. #Step 2: Calculate Difference in Proportions#

Now we need to find the difference between the proportions found in Step 1. The difference is \(\frac{23}{41} - \frac{10}{32}\). #Step 3: Calculate Standard Error#
03

The formula for standard error for the difference in proportions is \(\sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1)}{n_1}+\frac{\hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)}{n_2}}\). In this case, \(\hat{p}_1=\frac{23}{41}\), \(n_1=41\), \(\hat{p}_2=\frac{10}{32}\), and \(n_2=32\). Plug in these values and calculate the standard error. #Step 4: Calculate Confidence Interval for Difference in Proportions#

We will now find the 95% confidence interval for the difference in proportions using the difference and standard error calculated in previous steps. The formula for the confidence interval is \((\hat{p}_1-\hat{p}_2)\pm z*SE(\hat{p}_1-\hat{p}_2)\). Plug in the values fromSteps 2 and 3 and use \(z\)-score of 1.96 to find the 95% confidence interval for the difference in proportions.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Proportion of Accidents
The proportion of accidents involving injuries is a crucial measure to determine the likelihood of injuries in auto accidents on a highway. In this context, we first focus on how to calculate this proportion when damages are \(1000 or more. To do this, we take the number of accidents involving injuries and divide it by the total number of accidents. For our specific case, the number of accidents with injuries and damages exceeding \)1000 is 23, while the total number of such accidents is 41. Therefore, the proportion is calculated as: \[ \text{Proportion} = \frac{23}{41} \approx 0.561 \]This result implies that approximately 56.1% of accidents with damages over $1000 result in injuries. Recognizing this proportion provides valuable insight into the risk of injury associated with more severe accidents.
Margin of Error
The margin of error (MOE) quantifies the amount of random sampling error in a survey's results. It's a critical element when constructing confidence intervals, as it indicates the range within which we expect the true population parameter to lie, given our sample data.
To calculate the MOE for the proportion of accidents involving injuries when damages are $1000 or more, we use the formula for a one-proportion confidence interval:\[ \text{MOE} = z*\sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}} \] Here, \(\hat{p}\) is the sample proportion, \(n\) is the sample size, and \(z\) is the z-score corresponding to the desired confidence level. In this example, \(\hat{p} = \frac{23}{41}\), \(n = 41\), and for a 95% confidence level, \(z = 1.96\). Plugging these values into the formula gives:\[ \text{MOE} = 1.96*\sqrt{\frac{\frac{23}{41}(1-\frac{23}{41})}{41}} \] Calculating this provides an MOE, which helps define the boundaries of our confidence interval. This metric highlights the precision of our proportion estimate, allowing us to understand the extent of possible error due to sampling variability.
Difference in Proportions
When comparing two groups, such as accidents with damage under \(1000 and those with damage of \)1000 or more, determining the difference in proportions can reveal insights into varying risk levels. First, we calculate the proportion of injuries for each group:- For damages of \(1000 or more: \(\hat{p}_1 = \frac{23}{41}\)- For damages under \)1000: \(\hat{p}_2 = \frac{10}{32}\)The difference in these proportions provides information on how much higher the injury rate is in more severe accidents. The calculation is straightforward:\[ \text{Difference} = \hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2 = \frac{23}{41} - \frac{10}{32} \]This result gives us a measure of the proportionate increase in injury likelihood associated with higher damage accidents compared to lower ones. Understanding this difference helps us assess and prioritize safety measures for different accident severities.
Standard Error
The standard error (SE) is a statistical measure that reflects the average distance that a sample proportion will be from the true population proportion, assuming repeated sampling. It is particularly pivotal for assessing the variability of sample estimates, thus influencing the width of confidence intervals. For comparing two proportions, as in our problem, the formula is:\[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1)}{n_1} + \frac{\hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)}{n_2}} \]In our situation:- \(\hat{p}_1 = \frac{23}{41}\) and \(n_1 = 41\) for damages \(1000 or more- \(\hat{p}_2 = \frac{10}{32}\) and \(n_2 = 32\) for damages under \)1000By substituting these values into the formula, we calculate the SE for the difference in proportions. This value reveals the degree of uncertainty in our estimate of the difference between the two group proportions. A smaller SE suggests more confidence in the precision of our estimate, whereas a larger SE indicates greater variability. Hence, understanding and calculating the standard error is essential when making statistical inferences based on sample data.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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