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Refer to Exercise \(8.3 .\) What effect does a larger population variance have on the margin of error?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Answer: A larger population variance leads to a greater population standard deviation, resulting in a larger margin of error. This implies that the estimate becomes less precise, and there is more uncertainty about the true value.

Step by step solution

01

Understand Margin of Error

Margin of error is a measure of uncertainty in statistical estimates. It shows the possible range that the true value lies within a certain confidence level. In general, a larger margin of error indicates greater uncertainty about the estimate.
02

Standard Formula for Margin of Error

The standard formula for the margin of error (ME) is given as: ME = z * (σ / √n) where z = the critical value for the desired confidence level, σ = population standard deviation, and n = sample size.
03

Effect of Larger Population Variance on Margin of Error

We know that variance is the square of the standard deviation (σ²). Thus, if the population variance increases, it means that the population standard deviation (σ) also increases. Now, looking at the formula to calculate margin of error (ME = z * (σ / √n)), we can see that an increase in the population standard deviation (σ) will directly impact the margin of error. As σ increases, the margin of error (ME) will also increase.
04

Conclusion

A larger population variance results in a greater population standard deviation, which in turn leads to a larger margin of error. This means that the estimate will be less precise, and there will be more uncertainty about the true value.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Population Variance
Population variance is a fundamental concept in statistics that measures how data points in a population are spread out. Essentially, it quantifies the degree of variation or dispersion present among all the members in the population.
To calculate population variance, you first find the mean (average) of all data points. Then, you subtract the mean from each individual data point and square the result to eliminate negative values. Finally, the average of these squared differences gives you the population variance.The formula for population variance, denoted as \( \sigma^2 \), is:\[ \sigma^2 = \frac{\sum (x_i - \mu)^2}{N} \]where:
  • \( x_i \) is each individual data point,
  • \( \mu \) is the mean of the population,
  • \( N \) is the total number of data points in the population.
Understanding population variance is important as it affects various statistical measures, such as the margin of error. An increase in population variance typically leads to more uncertainty in statistical estimates and predictions.
Population Standard Deviation
Population standard deviation is closely related to population variance, but it provides a more intuitive measure of spread. It represents the average distance of each data point from the mean.
While variance gives the squared average difference, standard deviation adjusts by taking the square root, thus bringing the value back to the original unit of measure of the data.The formula for population standard deviation, denoted as \( \sigma \), is:\[ \sigma = \sqrt{\sigma^2} \]where \( \sigma^2 \) is the population variance.Calculating standard deviation is preferred in many cases because it is in the same unit as the original data and therefore easier to interpret. A higher population standard deviation indicates that the data points are more spread out, which could lead to a higher margin of error in statistical estimates. This happens because greater spread (higher \( \sigma \)) implies greater uncertainty about where any individual measurement falls relative to the population mean.
Statistical Estimates
Statistical estimates involve making inferences or educated guesses about a population based on a sample. These estimates aim to approximate unknown parameters of the population, such as the mean or standard deviation.
They are fundamental in statistical analysis and lay the groundwork for hypothesis testing and decision-making. Some common types of statistical estimates include:
  • Point Estimates: Single value estimates of a population parameter, like the sample mean as an estimate of the population mean.
  • Interval Estimates: Provide a range of values within which the population parameter is expected to lie, usually called confidence intervals.
One key aspect of statistical estimates is the margin of error, which quantifies the uncertainty in the estimate. A larger margin of error suggests greater variability and less precision in the estimate. Factors like sample size, confidence level, and population standard deviation affect the margin of error. Therefore, knowing the population variance and standard deviation is critical, as these influence the reliability and accuracy of statistical estimates.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Refer to Exercise 8.5 . What effect does an increased sample size have on the margin of error?

Acid rain, caused by the reaction of certain air pollutants with rainwater, appears to be a growing problem in the northeastern United States. (Acid rain affects the soil and causes corrosion on exposed metal surfaces.) Pure rain falling through clean air registers a pH value of 5.7 (pH is a measure of acidity: 0 is acid; 14 is alkaline). Suppose water samples from 40 rainfalls are analyzed for \(\mathrm{pH}\) and \(\bar{x}\) and \(s\) are equal to 3.7 and \(.5,\) respectively Find a \(99 \%\) confidence interval for the mean \(\mathrm{pH}\) in rainfall and interpret the interval. What assumption must be made for the confidence interval to be valid?

Red Meat, continued Refer to Exercise \(8.75 .\) The researcher selects two groups of 400 subjects each and collects the following sample information on the annual beef consumption now and 10 years ago: $$\begin{array}{lll} & \text { Ten Years Ago } & \text { This Year } \\\\\hline \text { Sample Mean } & 73 & 63 \\\\\text { Sample Standard Deviation } & 25 & 28\end{array}$$ a. The researcher would like to show that per-capita beef consumption has decreased in the last 10 years, so she needs to show that the difference in the averages is greater than \(0 .\) Find a \(99 \%\) lower confidence bound for the difference in the average per-capita beef consumptions for the two groups. b. What conclusions can the researcher draw using the confidence bound from part a?

Samples of 400 printed circuit boards were selected from each of two production lines \(A\) and \(B\). Line A produced 40 defectives, and line B produced 80 defectives. Estimate the difference in the actual fractions of defectives for the two lines with a confidence coefficient of \(.90 .\)

A study was conducted to compare the mean numbers of police emergency calls per 8 -hour shift in two districts of a large city. Samples of 100 8-hour shifts were randomly selected from the police records for each of the two regions, and the number of emergency calls was recorded for each shift. The sample statistics are listed here: $$\begin{array}{lcc} & \multicolumn{2}{c} {\text { Region }} \\\\\cline { 2 - 3 } & 1 & 2 \\\\\hline \text { Sample Size } & 100 & 100 \\\\\text { Sample Mean } & 2.4 & 3.1 \\\\\text { Sample Variance } & 1.44 & 2.64\end{array}$$ Find a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the difference in the mean numbers of police emergency calls per shift between the two districts of the city. Interpret the interval.

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