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A subject is taught to do a task in two different ways. Studies have shown that when subjected to mental strain and asked to perform the task, the subject most often reverts to the method first learned, regardless of whether it was easier or more difficult. If the probability that a subject returns to the first method learned is .8 and six subjects are tested, what is the probability that at least five of the subjects revert to their first learned method when asked to perform their task under stress?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Based on our calculation using the binomial distribution, the probability that at least five out of six subjects revert to their first-learned method when asked to perform their task under stress is approximately 0.507904.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the parameters of the binomial distribution

The total number of subjects (n) is 6, and the probability of reverting to the first method (p) is 0.8. We are looking for the probability of at least 5 successes, which means we need to calculate the probabilities of getting exactly 5 and exactly 6 successes.
02

Calculate the probability of X = 5 successes

Using the binomial formula, we will calculate the probability of getting exactly 5 successes (X = 5): \[P(X=5) = C(n, k) * p^k * (1-p)^{(n-k)}\] Where: - n = 6 (total trials) - k = 5 (number of successes) - p = 0.8 (probability of success) - C(n, k) = combination(n, k) = n! / (k! * (n-k)!) Plugging the values into the formula: \[P(X=5) = C(6, 5) * 0.8^5 * (1-0.8)^{(6-5)}\] Calculating the combination: \[C(6, 5) = \frac{6!}{5!(6-5)!} = 6\] Now, calculating the probability: \[P(X=5) = 6 * 0.8^5 * (1-0.8)^{(6-5)} = 6 * 0.8^5 * 0.2^1 = 0.24576\]
03

Calculate the probability of X = 6 successes

Using the binomial formula, we will calculate the probability of getting exactly 6 successes (X = 6): \[P(X=6) = C(6, 6) * 0.8^6 * (1-0.8)^{(6-6)}\] Calculating the combination: \[C(6, 6) = \frac{6!}{6!(6-6)!} = 1\] Now, calculating the probability: \[P(X=6) = 1 * 0.8^6 * (1-0.8)^{(6-6)} = 1 * 0.8^6 * 0.2^0 = 0.262144\]
04

Calculate the probability of at least 5 successes

Now that we have the probabilities of exactly 5 and exactly 6 successes, we can add them together to find the probability of at least 5 successes: \[P(X \geq 5) = P(X=5) + P(X=6) = 0.24576 + 0.262144 = 0.507904\] The probability that at least five out of six subjects revert to their first-learned method when asked to perform their task under stress is approximately 0.507904.

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