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Many employers provide workers with sick/personal days as well as vacation days. Among workers who have taken a sick day when they were not sick, \(49 \%\) say that they needed a break! \(^{13}\) Suppose that a random sample of \(n=12\) workers who took a sick day is selected. Rounding \(49 \%\) to \(p=.5\), find the probabilities of the following events. a. What is the probability that more than six workers say that they took a sick day because they needed a break? b. What is the probability that fewer than five of the workers needed a break? c. What is the probability that exactly 10 of the workers took a sick day because they needed a break?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Based on the given information, we calculated the probabilities of certain events using the binomial probability formula. We found that: a. The probability that more than six workers needed a break is 0.6123. b. The probability that fewer than five workers needed a break is 0.1208. c. The probability that exactly 10 workers needed a break is 0.0161.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the probabilities for each number of workers

For each number of workers from 7 to 12, we will calculate the binomial probability using the formula: \(P(X=k) = C(n, k) \cdot p^k \cdot (1-p)^{n-k}\) For example, for 7 workers: \(P(X=7) = C(12, 7) \cdot 0.5^7 \cdot (1-0.5)^{12-7}\) Repeat this process for 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 workers.
02

Sum the probabilities

Add all the calculated probabilities: \(P(X>6) = P(X=7) + P(X=8) + P(X=9) + P(X=10) + P(X=11) + P(X=12)\) Calculating this, we find the probability that more than six workers needed a break is 0.6123. #b. Probability that fewer than five workers needed a break.# To find the probability that fewer than five workers needed a break, we will sum the probabilities of 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 workers needing a break.
03

Calculate the probabilities for each number of workers

For each number of workers from 0 to 4, we will calculate the binomial probability using the formula: \(P(X=k) = C(n, k) \cdot p^k \cdot (1-p)^{n-k}\) For example, for 0 workers: \(P(X=0) = C(12, 0) \cdot 0.5^0 \cdot (1-0.5)^{12-0}\) Repeat this process for 1, 2, 3, and 4 workers.
04

Sum the probabilities

Add all the calculated probabilities: \(P(X<5) = P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2) + P(X=3) + P(X=4)\) Calculating this, we find the probability that fewer than five workers needed a break is 0.1208. #c. Probability that exactly 10 workers needed a break.# Now we will find the probability that exactly 10 workers needed a break.
05

Calculate the probability using the binomial formula

For 10 workers, calculate the binomial probability using the formula: \(P(X=10) = C(n, 10) \cdot p^{10} \cdot (1-p)^{n-10}\) Calculating this, we find the probability that exactly 10 workers needed a break is 0.0161.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Distribution
The binomial distribution is a probability distribution that models the number of successful outcomes in a fixed number of independent and identically distributed Bernoulli trials. In simpler terms, it's used when you have a fixed number of attempts, each of which can result in either a success or a failure. This distribution is particularly useful in scenarios like flipping a coin a certain number of times, or like in our exercise, figuring out how many workers take a sick day for a specific reason.
In the binomial distribution, two key parameters are essential:
  • Number of trials (\[n\]): The total number of attempts or tests.
  • Probability of success (\[p\]): The likelihood of one particular result in a single trial.
For our initial problem, \[n=12\] and \[p=0.5\] as the probability of a worker taking a sick day because they needed a break is 49%, which we round to 50%.
The binomial distribution helps us calculate the probabilities of getting exactly, at most, or more than a certain number of successes within the given trials.
Probability Calculation
When it comes to calculating probabilities in a binomial distribution, the formula used is:\[P(X=k) = C(n, k) \cdot p^k \cdot (1-p)^{n-k}\]where \[C(n, k)\] is a binomial coefficient which represents the number of ways to choose \[k\] successes out of \[n\] trials. This is often denoted as "n choose k" and can be calculated using the formula:\[C(n, k) = \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!}\]In the exercise, for example, to find the probability that exactly 10 workers out of 12 took a sick day because they needed a break, you'd evaluate:\[P(X=10) = C(12, 10) \cdot 0.5^{10} \cdot (0.5)^{2}\]Such calculations allow us to determine the likelihood of different numbers of workers taking sick days for a non-health-related reason.
We use these probabilities summed over different ranges, such as all results greater than 6, or fewer than 5, for further insights into behaviors among the sampled workers.
Random Sampling
Random sampling is a technique used to select a sample from a larger population in such a way that every member of the population has an equal chance of being chosen. This ensures that the sample is representative of the whole, reducing selection bias.
In our scenario, we selected a random group of 12 workers out of a larger population of those who have put in a sick day. This is crucial because it helps in making sure that our findings and the probabilities we calculate can be generalized to the entire group of workers who might claim a sick day.
Random sampling lays down a strong foundation for statistical inference. It assumes that the selected sample reflects the population's characteristics, and helps in making predictions and decisions based on data analysis. Without random sampling, the results could be skewed and not truly reflective of the actual behaviors in the larger population.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Consider the medical payment problem in Exercise 5.27 in a more realistic setting. Of all patients admitted to a medical clinic, \(30 \%\) fail to pay their bills and the debts are eventually forgiven. If the clinic treats 2000 different patients over a period of 1 year, what is the mean (expected) number of debts that have to be forgiven? If \(x\) is the number of forgiven debts in the group of 2000 patients, find the variance and standard deviation of \(x\). What can you say about the probability that \(x\) will exceed \(700 ?\) (HINT: Use the values of \(\mu\) and \(\sigma,\) along with Tchebysheff's Theorem, to answer this question.)

A peony plant with red petals was crossed with another plant having streaky petals. The probability that an offspring from this cross has red flowers is \(.75 .\) Let \(x\) be the number of plants with red petals resulting from ten seeds from this cross that were collected and germinated. a. Does the random variable \(x\) have a binomial distribution? If not, why not? If so, what are the values of \(n\) and \(p ?\) b. Find \(P(x \geq 9)\). c. Find \(P(x \leq 1)\). d. Would it be unusual to observe one plant with red petals and the remaining nine plants with streaky petals? If these experimental results actually occurred, what conclusions could you draw?

Teen Magazines Although teen magazines Teen People, Hachette Filipacche, and Elle Girl folded in \(2006,70 \%\) of people in a phone-in poll said teens are still a viable market for print, but they do not want titles that talk to them like they are teens. \({ }^{8}\) They read more sophisticated magazines. A sample of \(n=400\) people are randomly selected. a. What is the average number in the sample who said that teenagers are still a viable market for print? b. What is the standard deviation of this number? c. Within what range would you expect to find the number in the sample who said that there is a viable market for teenage print? d. If only 225 in a sample of 400 people said that teenagers are still a viable market for print, would you consider this unusual? Explain. What conclusions might you draw from this sample information?

How do you survive when there's no time to eat-fast food, no food, a protein bar, candy? A Snapshot in USA Today indicates that \(36 \%\) of women aged \(25-55\) say that, when they are too busy to eat, they get fast food from a drive-thru. \({ }^{14} \mathrm{~A}\) random sample of 100 women aged \(25-55\) is selected. a. What is the average number of women who say they eat fast food when they're too busy to eat? b. What is the standard deviation for the number of women who say they eat fast food when they're too busy to eat? c. If 49 of the women in the sample said they eat fast food when they're too busy to eat, would this be an unusual occurrence? Explain.

Gray Hair on Campus College campuses are graying! According to a recent article, one in four college students is aged 30 or older. Many of these students are women updating their job skills. Assume that the \(25 \%\) figure is accurate, that your college is representative of colleges at large, and that you sample \(n=200\) students, recording \(x\), the number of students age 30 or older. a. What are the mean and standard deviation of \(x\) ? b. If there are 35 students in your sample who are age 30 or older, would you be willing to assume that the \(25 \%\) figure is representative of your campus? Explain.

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