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From experience, a shipping company knows that the cost of delivering a small package within 24 hours is \(\$ 14.80 .\) The company charges \(\$ 15.50\) for shipment but guarantees to refund the charge if delivery is not made within 24 hours. If the company fails to deliver only \(2 \%\) of its packages within the 24 -hour period, what is the expected gain per package?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Answer: The expected gain per package is $0.39.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the possible outcomes and their probabilities

There are two possible outcomes for each package delivery: 1. The package is delivered within 24 hours (with a probability of 98% or 0.98). In this case, the company keeps the shipment charge (\(15.50) and pays the cost of delivery (\)14.80). 2. The package is not delivered within 24 hours (with a probability of 2% or 0.02). In this case, the company refunds the shipment charge and still pays the cost of delivery.
02

Calculate the gain for each outcome

To calculate the gain for each outcome, we need to subtract the cost of delivery from the fee for each scenario. 1. Delivered within 24 hours: Gain = Fee - Cost = \(15.50 - 14.80 = \)0.70 2. Not delivered within 24 hours: Gain = Fee - Cost = \(0 - 14.80 = \)-14.80
03

Calculate the expected value

Now, we can compute the expected value by multiplying each outcome's gain by its probability and summing up the results: Expected Gain = (Gain1)*(Probability1) + (Gain2)*(Probability2) Expected Gain = (\(0.70)*(0.98) + (-\)14.80)*(0.02) Expected Gain = \(0.686 - \)0.296 = $0.39 The expected gain per package is \(\$ 0.39\).

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