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A certain virus afflicted the families in 3 adjacent houses in a row of 12 houses. If three houses were randomly chosen from a row of 12 houses, what is the probability that the 3 houses would be adjacent? Is there reason to believe that this virus is contagious?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Answer: The probability of choosing three adjacent houses from a row of 12 houses randomly is 1/22 or approximately 0.045 (4.5%). This small probability suggests that the virus might be contagious, but further investigation is necessary to confirm its contagiousness.

Step by step solution

01

Find the total number of ways to choose three houses

Using combinations, we can find the total number of ways to choose three houses from 12 houses. The formula for combinations is given by C(n, k) = n! / (k! * (n - k)!), where n is the total number of objects and k is the number of objects we want to choose. In this case, n = 12 (number of houses) and k = 3 (number of houses to choose). C(12, 3) = \frac{12!}{3!(12-3)!} = \frac{12!}{3!9!} = \frac{12 * 11 * 10}{3 * 2 * 1} = 220 So, there are 220 ways to choose three houses from a row of twelve houses.
02

Find the number of ways to choose three adjacent houses

To find the number of ways to choose three adjacent houses, we should focus on the possible starting positions of the three adjacent houses. In a row of 12 houses, there are 10 possible starting positions for the three adjacent houses (from house 1 to house 10). Therefore, there are 10 ways to choose three adjacent houses.
03

Calculate the probability of choosing three adjacent houses

Now, we can calculate the probability by dividing the number of ways to choose three adjacent houses (10) by the total number of ways to choose three houses (220). P(Three Adjacent Houses) = \frac{10}{220} = \frac{1}{22} The probability of choosing three adjacent houses is 1/22, which is approximately 0.045.
04

Determine if the virus is contagious

To determine if there is a reason to believe that the virus is contagious, we must look at the probability of randomly choosing three adjacent houses (1/22). Since this probability is small (about 4.5%), it suggests that the occurrence of the virus in three adjacent houses is not merely due to chance. Therefore, there might be a reason to believe that the virus is contagious. However, this information alone is not enough to conclude that the virus is contagious. A further investigation is necessary to determine the true nature of the virus and its potential contagiousness.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Combinations in Probability
When we want to calculate the likelihood of selecting a specific group of items from a larger set without caring about the order, we use the concept of combinations in probability. This is particularly important in scenarios where the order doesn't affect the outcome, such as choosing three houses from a row of twelve.

In the given exercise, we're interested in the different ways we can choose three houses out of twelve. This is represented using the combinations formula, which has the form C(n, k) = \(\frac{n!}{k!(n - k)!}\), where 'n' represents the total number of elements to choose from, and 'k' denotes the number of elements we are selecting. The exclamation point '!' signifies factorial, which we'll explore further in the next section.

Understanding how combinations work is essential for solving problems related to probability in various fields, including biology where we might be interested in how a virus spreads from one entity to another under certain conditions. With combinations, we can calculate the total possible selections (in this case, the arrangement of houses) and then identify the unique case of interest (adjacent houses) to determine the likelihood of its occurrence.
Factorial Notation
Factorial notation is a mathematical symbol that involves multiplying a series of descending natural numbers. For instance, the factorial of 5, represented by '5!', is calculated as 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1. In probability and combinations, factorials are used to calculate the total number of ways items can be arranged because it takes into account every possible combination.

To calculate the number of ways we can select k items from a set of n, the combination formula uses factorials to exclude arrangements that are the same (since order doesn't matter). This is why the denominator includes both k! and (n - k)! – they cancel out any repeated combinations that arise from the order. This process simplifies the computation and ensures we only count distinct groups.

In our exercise, factorial notation is crucial for finding the total number of ways to choose any three houses (C(12, 3)) and to understand the scale of our probability calculations. Having a firm grasp of factorials is integral to not only probability but also to a wider range of math and science applications.
Contagiousness Hypothesis Testing
When facing a scenario like the spread of a virus in a neighborhood, scientists and researchers often turn to hypothesis testing to assess whether an event (such as adjacent houses all having cases of the virus) is due to a contagious effect or merely a chance occurrence. This is known as contagiousness hypothesis testing.

In our exercise, we used probability to explore whether the presence of the virus in three adjacent houses was random or possibly due to contagion. With a probability of 1/22 (or about 4.5%), and given the seriousness of disease spread, this low probability could indicate that the event was not random and warrants further investigation. In real-world applications, researchers would perform more comprehensive tests, including looking at the virus’s transmission rates, before drawing conclusions.

While our exercise simplifies the process, in practice, hypothesis testing is complex and considers multiple factors such as sample sizes, control groups, and statistical significance. Such analysis often leads to a ‘p-value’ – a numerical measure that helps determine the strength of the results against an assumed hypothesis. For diseases, a significant result might mean implementing measures to control a potential outbreak, underlying the importance of this method in health sciences.

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