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A food company plans to conduct an experiment to compare its brand of tea with that of two competitors. A single person is hired to taste and rank each of three brands of tea, which are unmarked except for identifying symbols \(A\), \(B\), and \(C\). a. Define the experiment. b. List the simple events in \(S\). c. If the taster has no ability to distinguish a difference in taste among teas, what is the probability that the taster will rank tea type \(A\) as the most desirable? As the least desirable?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Answer: The probability of the taster ranking type A as the most desirable is 1/3, and the probability of ranking type A as the least desirable is also 1/3.

Step by step solution

01

a. Define the experiment

The experiment consists of a single person hired to taste and rank three brands of tea (A, B, and C) in order of preference without knowing the brands.
02

b. List the simple events in S

To define the simple events in S, let's consider all the possible rankings that the taster could give. There are 3! (3 factorial) ways to rank the three tea types, which means there are 6 simple events in the sample space S: 1. A > B > C 2. A > C > B 3. B > A > C 4. B > C > A 5. C > A > B 6. C > B > A
03

c. Probability of ranking type A as the most desirable

If the taster is unable to distinguish any difference in taste among the teas, each of the 6 possible rankings is equally likely. There are 2 events in which tea type A is ranked as the most desirable (events 1 and 2), so the probability of this outcome is 2 out of 6, which can be simplified as: $$ P(\text{A most desirable}) = \frac{2}{6} = \frac{1}{3} $$
04

Probability of ranking type A as the least desirable

Similarly, there are 2 events in which tea type A is ranked as the least desirable (events 3 and 5), so the probability of this outcome is also 2 out of 6, which can be simplified as: $$ P(\text{A least desirable}) = \frac{2}{6} = \frac{1}{3} $$

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Space
In probability theory, a sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment. In our tea-tasting experiment, we are dealing with the rankings of three tea brands labeled A, B, and C. Since the taster is tasked with ranking them, we must consider every possible order in which the taster might prefer them.
These possible rankings represent the different outcomes, termed 'simple events', that exist in our sample space.
  • A > B > C
  • A > C > B
  • B > A > C
  • B > C > A
  • C > A > B
  • C > B > A
This accounts for a total of 6 different outcomes, or simple events, that define our sample space in this experiment. Each event corresponds to a unique ranking arrangement of the three teas.
Ranking
Ranking in this context refers to ordering the three tea brands from most desirable to least desirable. The person conducting the taste test does not know which brand corresponds to which label (A, B, or C), eliminating any bias.
The concept of ranking is based on the assumption that the taster relies solely on their taste preference during the test. This ensures the authenticity of the results. Since there are three tea brands, each taster has 3 choices for the first position, then 2 remaining choices for the second position, and only 1 choice left for the third position.
This calculation, known as a factorial, is written as 3!, which is equal to 6. These 6 unique rankings form the total number of possible ways to rank the teas in this experiment.
Simple Events
A simple event is one specific outcome or occurrence from the sample space. It involves no further breakdown and cannot be divided into smaller parts. For the tea ranking exercise, each simple event is a specific sequence or order in which the teas are ranked.
To illustrate, consider the simple event A > B > C. Here, the taster ranks tea A as the most preferred, followed by B, and lastly C. Each ranking arrangement, like A > B > C or C > B > A, is a distinct simple event.
Understanding simple events is crucial as they serve as the basic building blocks to calculate probabilities in more complex scenarios. They help in analyzing how each specific outcome contributes to the overall probability experimentation in this case.
Equally Likely Outcomes
Equally likely outcomes mean that each outcome within the sample space has the same probability of occurring. In our experiment, it is assumed that the taster cannot tell the difference between the teas based on taste alone. This implies that the rankings are purely random, with no bias or preference affecting them.
Given this assumption, the 6 possible rankings are equally likely. Thus, each configuration has an equal chance of happening, with a probability of \(\frac{1}{6}\)because there are 6 possible outcomes.
Equally likely outcomes simplify calculations of probability, as each event carries the same weight or chance of occurring. This fairness is essential in applications requiring unbiased interpretations like surveys, unbiased random sampling, and probability evaluations.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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