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The calcium (Ca) content of a powdered mineral substance was analyzed 10 times with the following percent compositions recorded: \(\begin{array}{lllll}.0271 & .0282 & .0279 & .0281 & .0268\end{array}\) \(\begin{array}{llll}.0271 & .0281 & .0269 & .0275 & .0276\end{array}\) a. Find a \(99 \%\) confidence interval for the true calcium content of this substance. b. What does the phrase " \(99 \%\) confident" mean? c. What assumptions must you make about the sampling procedure so that this confidence interval will be valid? What does this mean to the chemist who is performing the analysis?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Answer: "99% confident" means that if we repeated the sampling procedure many times, 99% of the resulting confidence intervals would contain the true calcium content. The assumptions for the confidence interval to be valid include a representative sample, normally distributed data, independent measurements, and random sampling. These assumptions must be met for the confidence interval to provide meaningful information about the true calcium content of the substance.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the sample mean and sample standard deviation

To calculate the sample mean (\(\bar{x}\)), sum all the measurements, and divide by the number of measurements (10). To calculate the sample standard deviation (s), subtract the sample mean from each data point, square the result, sum the squared differences, divide by the degrees of freedom (n-1 = 9), and take the square root of that value: Sample Mean ( \(\bar{x}\) ): \(\bar{x} = \frac{(.0271+.0282+.0279+.0281+.0268+.0271+.0281+.0269+.0275+.0276)}{10} = 0.02761\) Sample Standard Deviation (s): \(s=\sqrt{\frac{(\text{sum of squared differences})}{n-1}}\) \(s=\sqrt{\frac{(0.0271-0.02761)^{2}+\cdots+(0.0276-0.02761)^{2}}{9}} = 0.000442\)
02

Find the critical t-value

Since we want a 99% confidence interval and have 9 degrees of freedom (10-1), we use a t-distribution table to find the appropriate critical t-value. For a two-tailed test, the value for a 99% confidence level with 9 degrees of freedom is approximately \(t_{critical} = 3.25\).
03

Calculate the Margin of Error

With the sample mean, sample standard deviation, and critical t-value, we can now calculate the margin of error (ME) using the following formula: Margin of Error (ME): \(ME=t_{critical} \times \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}}\) \(ME=3.25 \times \frac{0.000442}{\sqrt{10}} \approx 0.000454\)
04

Find the 99% Confidence Interval

To find the 99% confidence interval, we subtract and add the margin of error from the sample mean: Confidence Interval (CI): \(CI = (\bar{x} - ME, \bar{x} + ME)\) \(CI = (0.02761 - 0.000454, 0.02761 + 0.000454) = (0.027156, 0.028064)\).
05

Explain the meaning of "99% confident" and assumptions

a) We are 99% confident that the true calcium content of the substance lies within the interval (0.027156, 0.028064). b) The phrase "99% confident" means that, if we repeated this sampling procedure many times, then 99% of the resulting confidence intervals would contain the true calcium content. c) Assumptions for the confidence interval to be valid include that the sample is representative of the population, the data is normally distributed, independent, and obtained through random sampling. The chemist needs to ensure that the sampling procedure and analysis meet these assumptions for the confidence interval to provide meaningful information about the true calcium content of the substance.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Mean
The sample mean, denoted as \( \bar{x} \), provides a central value for your data set. It's calculated by summing up all the observations in the sample and dividing this total by the number of observations. For your calcium content data, you would sum all the ten measurements: .0271, .0282, .0279, .0281, .0268, .0271, .0281, .0269, .0275, and .0276. Then, divide the sum by 10, which is the number of observations in the sample. This simple mathematical operation gives you the average percent composition of calcium in the powdered mineral: \( \bar{x} = 0.02761 \).

  • Essential for summarizing data
  • First step in constructing a confidence interval
Calculating the sample mean is intuitive but crucial, as it serves as the foundation for more complex statistical analyses like confidence intervals.
Sample Standard Deviation
The sample standard deviation, denoted as \( s \), measures the spread of your data points around the sample mean. It gives insight into the variability of the calcium content measurements. To calculate \( s \), first, subtract the sample mean from each observation and square the result. Next, sum these squared differences. Then, divide this sum by the number of data points minus one, which is the degrees of freedom. Finally, take the square root of this value.

For your data set, the calculation involved finding differences such as \((0.0271-0.02761)^2\) and so on, for each observation. In this case, your sample standard deviation is approximately 0.000442.

  • Indicates consistency or variability in data
  • Used to calculate the confidence interval's margin of error
Understanding standard deviation helps in determining whether the data points are closely packed or spread out over a wide range.
Critical t-value
In statistics, the critical t-value is a point on the t-distribution curve that is used to calculate confidence intervals. It captures the tail behavior of the distribution, especially useful when dealing with small sample sizes. Given your context of a 99% confidence interval and 9 degrees of freedom (since \( n-1 = 10-1 \)), you reference a t-distribution table to find the critical t-value. Here, \( t_{critical} = 3.25 \).

  • Accounts for sample size and desired confidence level
  • Crucial to determine margin of error
This value is critical because it scales the margin of error according to how precisely you want to estimate the sample's true mean with high confidence.
Margin of Error
The margin of error (ME) quantifies the range within which the true population parameter is expected to lie, with a certain level of confidence. To calculate it, you use the formula: \( ME = t_{critical} \times \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}} \), where \( t_{critical} \) is the critical t-value, \( s \) is the sample standard deviation, and \( n \) is the sample size. In your specific exercise, this formula results in an ME of approximately 0.000454.

  • Provides a boundary for confidence interval
  • Affected by sample size, standard deviation, and confidence level
The margin of error is essential for interpreting confidence intervals, as it translates statistical calculations into a tangible "range" within which you are likely to find the true population mean. It's the buffer that tells you how precise your sample mean is, added to and subtracted from the sample mean to form the bounds of your confidence interval.

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