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Suppose you are standing on the bank of a straight river. (a) Choose, at random, a direction which will keep you on dry land, and walk \(1 \mathrm{~km}\) in that direction. Let \(P\) denote your position. What is the expected distance from \(P\) to the river? (b) Now suppose you proceed as in part (a), but when you get to \(P\), you pick a random direction (from among all directions) and walk \(1 \mathrm{~km}\). What is the probability that you will reach the river before the second walk is completed?

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) 0 km; (b) 50% probability.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Problem

We are given two scenarios where you start at the bank of a river. In part (a), you walk 1 km in a direction parallel to the river, and in part (b), you walk another 1 km in a random direction after reaching point P.
02

Analyze Part (a)

Since you are walking parallel to the river, the distance to the river remains constant after the walk. Hence, the expected distance from point P to the river is 0 km because you have not moved away from the river's bank.
03

Analyze Part (b)

After reaching point P, you pick a random direction to walk another 1 km. This time you could potentially walk towards or away from the river. Consider the circle with P as the center and a radius of 1 km. Only if you walk in the semi-circle direction that points towards the river will you reach it.
04

Calculate the Semi-circle Probability

The probability can be calculated as the ratio of the semi-circle angle {walk towards the river} to the full circle. Since a semi-circle is half of a circle, the probability is 0.5 (or 50%) that you will reach the river during your second walk.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Expected Distance
When discussing expected distance in probability problems, such as the one involving a walk parallel to a riverbank, it's essential to understand the concept of 'expectation.' Expectation or expected value is a measure of the center of a probability distribution. Here, it relates to your expected position after performing a random action. In part (a) of the exercise, after walking parallel to a straight river bank for 1 km, your distance to the river doesn't change. You're essentially moving along the line that defines the edge of the river. Therefore, your expected distance from point P to the river remains at 0 km. This concept illustrates a fundamental aspect of expected value: when there is no change in a particular direction due to the action taken, the expected distance remains unaltered. Understanding this can simplify many probability problems that deal with unchanged distances or positions.
Random Walk
Random walk is a mathematical formalization of a path consisting of successive random steps. It's an important concept in various fields, including physics, finance, and ecological studies, as well as being pertinent in our river problem. In part (b) of the problem, once you've reached point P, the scenario changes to a random walk, since you choose a completely random direction to walk another 1 km. This means that every direction has an equal probability, and thus your path is unpredictable. The idea of a random walk can help in understanding how systems or individuals move over time when there isn't a set direction or path, which can be applied to various stochastic processes in real life. The random walk problem also provides a foundation for understanding how probabilities are assigned to complex systems, including movements away or towards specific positions, like our riverbank.
Geometric Probability
Geometric probability involves using geometric figures and their properties to solve probabilistic problems. It's a unique application of probability that simplifies understanding of certain scenarios. In our problem's second part, geometric probability is evident when considering the outcome of walking 1 km from point P in a random direction. The possible positions form a circle with a 1 km radius around P. To find the likelihood of reaching the river during this random walk, we consider the semi-circle that represents directions leading back to the river.
  • The full circle represents all possible outcomes.
  • The semi-circle represents the favorable outcomes.
Thus, the probability is determined by the ratio of the semi-circle to the full circle, resulting in a probability of 0.5, or 50%. Understanding geometric probability can provide powerful insights into spatial-dependent probability questions, making it an invaluable tool for specific types of problems.

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