Chapter 4: Problem 31
Let \(Y_{1}
Short Answer
Expert verified
The 95% confidence interval for \(\theta\) is approximately \((2.3/(1 - 0.025)^{\frac{1}{12}}, \infty)\).
Step by step solution
01
Deriving the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)
To derive the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the given pdf, integrate the pdf from the lower limit 0 to x. This yields \(F(x) = \int_0^x f(t) dt = \int_0^x \frac{3t^2}{\theta^3} dt = \frac{t^3}{\theta^3} \Bigg|_{t=0}^{t=x} = \frac{x^3}{\theta^3}\). Thus, \(F(x) = \frac{x^3}{\theta^3}\) for \(0 < x < \theta\).
02
Deriving the Probability for the nth Order Statistic
As \(\frac{Y_n}{\theta}\) follows the same distribution as \(X\), we can also write \(P(c < \frac{Y_n}{\theta} < 1) = P(c<X<1) = F(1) - F(c) = 1 - c^3\). Since there are \(n\) number of samples, the probability for the nth order statistic is \(P(c < \frac{Y_n}{\theta} < 1) = 1 - c^{3n}\).
03
Computing the 95% Confidence Interval for Theta
First, we set \(P(c < \frac{Y_n}{\theta} < 1) = 1 - c^{3n}\) equal to 0.025 (since the confidence level is 95%, the two-tailed alpha level is 0.05, which means we have 0.025 in each tail of the distribution). Solving this equation for \(c\), we get \(c = (1 - 0.025)^{\frac{1}{3n}}\). Plugging in the observed value of \(Y_4 = 2.3\) and solving for \(\theta\), we can create the 95% confidence interval for \(\theta\) using the equation \(\theta = \frac{Y_4}{c}\). The resultant 95% confidence interval for \(\theta\) will be the range \((\frac{Y_4}{c_{upper}},\frac{Y_4}{c_{lower}})\) where \(c_{upper} = (1 - 0.025)^{\frac{1}{12}}\) and \(c_{lower} = (1 - 0.975)^{\frac{1}{12}}\). Since this is a one-sided interval, the upper bound for theta will be \(\infty\).
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Key Concepts
These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.
Cumulative Distribution Function
The cumulative distribution function, commonly known as the CDF, is a fundamental concept in probability and statistics. It helps us understand the probability that a random variable takes on a value less than or equal to a given point. Simply put, the CDF provides the area under the probability density function (PDF) up to a certain point.
For a given continuous random variable with a probability density function (PDF), say, the function is given by:
For a given continuous random variable with a probability density function (PDF), say, the function is given by:
- Integration: To get the CDF from a PDF, integrate the PDF from the lower bound of the variable to the value you're interested in.
- Example: In the exercise, the PDF is given as \(f(x) = \frac{3x^2}{\theta^3}\). By integrating it from 0 to \(x\), we derive the CDF \(F(x) = \frac{x^3}{\theta^3}\).
Confidence Interval
A confidence interval provides a range of values, derived from a data sample, that is likely to contain the value of an unknown population parameter. It gives an indication of how uncertain a statistic is. In practical terms, it helps us answer questions like "How much can we trust the estimate of \(\theta\) from our sample?"
- Setup: For a 95% confidence interval, you'd expect that the true parameter will be within this interval 95 times out of 100 repeated experiments.
- Calculation: In the exercise, with \(Y_4 = 2.3\) and \(n = 4\), the confidence interval for \(\theta\) is calculated by finding \(c\), where \(c = (1 - 0.025)^{1/(3n)}\) and substituting \(Y_4\) to find the range.
Probability Density Function
The probability density function (PDF) describes the likelihood of a random variable to take on a particular value. Unlike probabilities, which are discrete, PDFs provide a continuous model, meaning that the probability of the variable being exactly a specific value is zero. Instead, we look at the probability of the variable falling within a certain interval.
- Shape: PDF graphs can have various shapes depending on the distribution of data. For instance, in the given exercise, the PDF has a form \(f(x) = \frac{3x^2}{\theta^3}\), which might resemble a curve showing increasing probability with greater \(x\) until a limit \(\theta\).
- Usage: The role of a PDF is to allow us to calculate probabilities by integrating over an interval. This is how we derive the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) from the PDF.