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Hunters \(\mathrm{A}\) and \(\mathrm{B}\) shoot at a target; the probabilities of hitting the target are \(p_{1}\) and \(p_{2}\), respectively. Assuming independence, can \(p_{1}\) and \(p_{2}\) be selected so that \(P(\) zero hits \()=P(\) one hit \()=P(\) two hits \() ?\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
No, there are no values of \(p_{1}\) and \(p_{2}\) that can be selected such that the probabilities of zero hits, one hit and two hits are equal.

Step by step solution

01

Writing Down the Probability Equations

The probabilities of zero, one and two hits are calculated as follows - The probability of zero hit means neither A nor B hits the target. This would be given by \((1-p_{1})*(1-p_{2})\). The probability of one hit means either A or B hits but not both. This would be given by \((1-p_{1})*p_{2} + p_{1}*(1-p_{2})\). The probability of two hits is when both A and B hit the target. This would be given by \(p_{1}*p_{2}\). Therefore, our equations are \((1-p_{1}) * (1-p_{2}) = (1-p_{1}) * p_{2} + p_{1} * (1-p_{2}) = p_{1}* p_{2}\)
02

Solving the Equations

Solving these three equations together may seem complicated. However, since they're all equal to each other, we can set them equal to a common variable, say x. Therefore, we have the system of equations: \((1-p_{1}) * (1-p_{2}) = x, (1-p_{1}) * p_{2} + p_{1} * (1-p_{2}) = x, p_{1}* p_{2} = x\), up to which we can easily see that \(x = 0\). If we substitute this into the equations we get \(p_{1} = 0\) or \(p_{2} = 0\) or \(p_{1} = p_{2} = 1\)
03

Checking the Solutions

Plug these solutions into our system of equations again to check if any of them work. The first solution \(p_{1} = 0\) and \(p_{2} = 0\) gives us the probabilities of 1 for zero hits, 0 for one hit and 0 for two hits, so it doesn't work. The second solution of \(p_{1} = p_{2} = 1\) gives probabilities of 0 for zero hits, 0 for one hit, and 1 for two hits, so it also doesn't work. Hence, there are no values for p1 and p2 that satisfy the conditions of the problem.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Independent Events
In probability theory, understanding independent events is crucial for analyzing how separate occurrences can affect overall outcomes.
When two events are independent, it means that the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of the other. In mathematical terms, two events, event A and event B, are said to be independent if the probability of both events happening simultaneously is equal to the product of their individual probabilities. This can be expressed as:
  • \( P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \cdot P(B) \)
In the context of the exercise with hunters A and B, their shots at the target are considered independent. That means whether or not hunter A hits the target does not affect the probability of hunter B hitting the target.
Therefore, to analyze the problem's solution, each resulting situation (zero, one, or two hits) can be calculated individually using their independent probabilities.
Probability Equations
Probability equations help us express the likelihood of different outcomes in a quantifiable manner. In this particular exercise, we start by defining the events:
  • The chance of zero hits, when neither A nor B hits the target, is derived from the probabilities of missing the target for both: \((1 - p_{1}) \cdot (1 - p_{2})\).
  • The chance of one hit involves two scenarios, either hunter A hits while B misses, or B hits while A misses, which gives us: \((1 - p_{1}) \cdot p_{2} + p_{1} \cdot (1 - p_{2})\).
  • Lastly, the probability of both hitting the target (two hits) is simply: \(p_{1} \cdot p_{2}\).
These equations form the base for further calculations by setting them equal to determine possible values of \(p_{1}\) and \(p_{2}\) that satisfy equality among all outcomes.
Such equations allow us to answer more complex questions by equating different scenarios and solvable expressions.
System of Equations
When dealing with multiple probability equations at once, combining them into a system of equations can streamline the solution process. A system of equations allows mathematicians to solve multiple equations simultaneously for common variables.
In the exercise provided, we must solve a system involving three equations based on different probability outcomes:
  • \((1 - p_{1}) \cdot (1 - p_{2}) = x\)
  • \((1 - p_{1}) \cdot p_{2} + p_{1} \cdot (1 - p_{2}) = x\)
  • \(p_{1} \cdot p_{2} = x\)
By setting these equations equal to a common variable \(x\), we examine the conditions under which each equation balances equally with the others.
Throughout the exercise, solving these equations shows if particular values for \(p_{1}\) and \(p_{2}\) allow all three scenarios to have identical probabilities.
Ultimately, the conclusion is reached by checking the conditions under which these probabilities equalize, thereby validating if such \(p_{1}\) and \(p_{2}\) values exist.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A French nobleman, Chevalier de Méré, had asked a famous mathematician, Pascal, to explain why the following two probabilities were different (the difference had been noted from playing the game many times): (1) at least one six in 4 independent casts of a six-sided die; (2) at least a pair of sixes in 24 independent casts of a pair of dice. From proportions it seemed to de Méré that the probabilities should be the same. Compute the probabilities of \((1)\) and \((2)\).

Let \(X\) be a random variable. If \(m\) is a positive integer, the expectation \(E\left[(X-b)^{m}\right]\), if it exists, is called the \(m\) th moment of the distribution about the point \(b\). Let the first, second, and third moments of the distribution about the point 7 be 3,11, and 15, respectively. Determine the mean \(\mu\) of \(X\), and then find the first, second, and third moments of the distribution about the point \(\mu\).

Consider an urn which contains slips of paper each with one of the numbers \(1,2, \ldots, 100\) on it. Suppose there are \(i\) slips with the number \(i\) on it for \(i=1,2, \ldots, 100 .\) For example, there are 25 slips of paper with the number \(25 .\) Assume that the slips are identical except for the numbers. Suppose one slip is drawn at random. Let \(X\) be the number on the slip. (a) Show that \(X\) has the pmf \(p(x)=x / 5050, x=1,2,3, \ldots, 100\), zero elsewhere. (b) Compute \(P(X \leq 50)\). (c) Show that the cdf of \(X\) is \(F(x)=[x]([x]+1) / 10100\), for \(1 \leq x \leq 100\), where \([x]\) is the greatest integer in \(x\).

Each of four persons fires one shot at a target. Let \(C_{k}\) denote the event that the target is hit by person \(k, k=1,2,3,4 .\) If \(C_{1}, C_{2}, C_{3}, C_{4}\) are independent and if \(P\left(C_{1}\right)=P\left(C_{2}\right)=0.7, P\left(C_{3}\right)=0.9\), and \(P\left(C_{4}\right)=0.4\), compute the probability that (a) all of them hit the target; (b) exactly one hits the target; (c) no one hits the target; (d) at least one hits the target.

Let the subsets \(C_{1}=\left\\{\frac{1}{4}

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