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Suppose a simple random sample of size \(n=75\) is obtained from a population whose size is \(N=10,000\) and whose population proportion with a specified characteristic is \(p=0.8\) (a) Describe the sampling distribution of \(\hat{p}\) (b) What is the probability of obtaining \(x=63\) or more individuals with the characteristic? That is, what is \(P(\hat{p} \geq 0.84) ?\) (c) What is the probability of obtaining \(x=51\) or fewer individuals with the characteristic? That is, what is \(P(\hat{p} \leq 0.68) ?\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) Approximately normal with mean 0.8 and standard deviation 0.046. (b) Approximately 0.1922. (c) Approximately 0.0045.

Step by step solution

01

Describe the sampling distribution of \hat{p}

Start by noting that the sample size (n) is 75, population size (N) is 10,000, and population proportion (p) is 0.8.The mean of the sampling distribution of \hat{p} (the sample proportion) is given by \mu_{\hat{p}}=p. Thus, \mu_{\hat{p}}=0.8.The standard deviation of the sampling distribution of \hat{p} is calculated using the formula \sigma_{\hat{p}} = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}} \times \sqrt{\frac{N-n}{N-1}}.First, calculate the \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}} term:\[\sqrt{\frac{0.8(1-0.8)}{75}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.8(0.2)}{75}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.16}{75}} = \sqrt{0.0021333} \approx 0.0462 \]Then, adjust for the finite population using the finite population correction factor:\[\sqrt{\frac{10,000 - 75}{10,000 - 1}} = \sqrt{\frac{9,925}{9,999}} \approx \sqrt{0.9925} \approx 0.9962 \]Multiply these two results together to find \sigma_{\hat{p}}:\[0.0462 \times 0.9962 \approx 0.046 \]Thus, the standard deviation \sigma_{\hat{p}} \approx 0.046So, the sampling distribution of \hat{p} is approximately normal with mean 0.8 and standard deviation 0.046.
02

Calculate the probability \mathbf{P(\hat{p} \geq 0.84)}

First, convert the sample proportion \hat{p} = 0.84 into a z-score:\[z = \frac{\hat{p} - \mu_{\hat{p}}}{\sigma_{\hat{p}}} = \frac{0.84 - 0.8}{0.046} = \frac{0.04}{0.046} \approx 0.87 \]Using the standard normal distribution table, find the probability corresponding to z = 0.87.\[P(Z \geq 0.87) = 1 - P(Z < 0.87) \]From the standard normal table, P(Z < 0.87) \approx 0.8078.Thus, the probability is:\[P(Z \geq 0.87) = 1 - 0.8078 = 0.1922 \]So, \[P(\hat{p} \geq 0.84) \approx 0.1922 \]
03

Calculate the probability \mathbf{P(\hat{p} \leq 0.68)}

Convert the sample proportion \hat{p} = 0.68 into a z-score:\[z = \frac{\hat{p} - \mu_{\hat{p}}}{\sigma_{\hat{p}}} = \frac{0.68 - 0.8}{0.046} = \frac{-0.12}{0.046} \approx -2.61 \]Using the standard normal distribution table, find the probability corresponding to z = -2.61.\[P(Z \leq -2.61) \]From the standard normal table, P(Z \leq -2.61) \approx 0.0045.So, \[P(\hat{p} \leq 0.68) \approx 0.0045 \]

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportion
The sample proportion, often denoted as \(\hat{p}\), is a key concept in statistics. It represents the proportion of a specific characteristic within a sample. For example, if we take a sample of 75 individuals from a population and we know that 0.8, or 80%, of the population has a certain characteristic, the sample proportion \(\hat{p}\) is the proportion of those 75 individuals who have that characteristic. The formula to find the sample proportion is simple: \(\hat{p} = \frac{x}{n}\), where \(\hat{p}\) is the sample proportion, \(\frac{x}{n}\) is the number of individuals with the characteristic in the sample, and \(\frac{x}{n}\) is the sample size.
Standard Deviation
The standard deviation measures the amount of variability or dispersion of a set of values. In the context of a sampling distribution, the standard deviation of the sample proportion \(\hat{p}\) indicates how much the sample proportion is expected to vary from sample to sample. The formula to calculate this is: \(\sigma_{\hat{p}} = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n} \times \frac{N-n}{N-1}}\). Here, \(\frac{p(1-p)}{n}\) adjusts for the population proportion and sample size, and the correction factor \(\sqrt{\frac{N-n}{N-1}}\) adjusts for finite populations. This accounts for scenarios where the population is not infinite, providing a more accurate measure of variability.
Z-Score
A z-score indicates how many standard deviations an element is from the mean. It's used in probability calculations with the standard normal distribution. To convert a sample proportion to a z-score, you use the formula: \(\frac{\hat{p} - \mu_{\hat{p}}}{\sigma_{\hat{p}}}\). In our problem, for example, if \(\hat{p}\) is 0.84 with a mean \mu_{\hat{p}} of 0.8 and a standard deviation \sigma_{\hat{p}} of 0.046, you would get \(\frac{0.84 - 0.8}{0.046} \approx 0.87\). This z-score tells us that the sample proportion of 0.84 is 0.87 standard deviations above the mean.
Probability Calculation
Calculating probabilities using the standard normal distribution involves converting your values to z-scores and then using the standard normal distribution table. For example, if we want to find the probability of obtaining a sample proportion of 0.84 or higher, we calculate its z-score as 0.87 and refer to the standard normal table. For z = 0.87, the cumulative probability is approximately 0.8078. Thus, the probability is: \(\mathbf{P(Z \geq 0.87)} \approx 1-0.8078 = 0.1922\). This tells us there is about a 19.22% chance of obtaining a sample proportion this high or higher. Similarly, calculating the probability for \(\hat{p}\) \(\leq 0.68\) involves finding the corresponding z-score (in this case -2.61) and using the standard normal table, which reveals a much lower probability value.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The following exercise is meant to illustrate the normality of the distribution of the sample proportion, \(\hat{p}\) (a) Using MINITAB or some other statistical spreadsheet, randomly generate 2000 samples of size 765 from a population with \(p=0.3 .\) Store the number of successes in a column called \(x .\) (b) Determine \(\hat{p}\) for each of the 2000 samples by computing \(\frac{x}{765} .\) Store each \(\hat{p}\) in a column called phat. (c) Draw a histogram of the 2000 estimates of \(p .\) Comment on the shape of the distribution. (d) Compute the mean and standard deviation of the sampling distribution of \(\hat{p}\) in the simulation. (e) Compute the theoretical mean and standard deviation of the sampling distribution of \(\hat{p} .\) Compare the theoretical results to the results of the simulation. Are they close?

Load the sampling distribution applet on your computer. Set the applet so that the population is bell shaped. Take note of the mean and standard deviation. (a) Obtain 1000 random samples of size \(n=5 .\) Describe the distribution of the sample mean based on the results of the applet. According to statistical theory, what is the distribution of the sample mean? (b) Obtain 1000 random samples of size \(n=10 .\) Describe the distribution of the sample mean based on the results of the applet. According to statistical theory, what is the distribution of the sample mean? (c) Obtain 1000 random samples of size \(n=30 .\) Describe the distribution of the sample mean based on the results of the applet. According to statistical theory, what is the distribution of the sample mean? (d) Compare the results of parts (a)-(c). How are they the same? How are they different?

In a town of 500 households, 220 have a dog. The population proportion of dog owners in this town (expressed as a decimal) is _____.

Suppose a simple random sample of size \(n=1460\) is obtained from a population whose size is \(N=1,500,000\) and whose population proportion with a specified characteristic is \(p=0.42\) (a) Describe the sampling distribution of \(\hat{p}\) (b) What is the probability of obtaining \(x=657\) or more individuals with the characteristic? (c) What is the probability of obtaining \(x=584\) or fewer individuals with the characteristic?

Determine \(\mu_{x}\) and \(\sigma_{x}\) from the given parameters of the population and the sample size. $$\mu=64, \sigma=18, n=36$$

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