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Suppose a simple random sample of size \(n=75\) is obtained from a population whose size is \(N=10,000\) and whose population proportion with a specified characteristic is \(p=0.8\) (a) Describe the sampling distribution of \(\hat{p}\) (b) What is the probability of obtaining \(x=63\) or more individuals with the characteristic? That is, what is \(P(\hat{p} \geq 0.84) ?\) (c) What is the probability of obtaining \(x=51\) or fewer individuals with the characteristic? That is, what is \(P(\hat{p} \leq 0.68) ?\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) Approximately normal with mean 0.8 and standard deviation 0.046. (b) Approximately 0.1922. (c) Approximately 0.0045.

Step by step solution

01

Describe the sampling distribution of \hat{p}

Start by noting that the sample size (n) is 75, population size (N) is 10,000, and population proportion (p) is 0.8.The mean of the sampling distribution of \hat{p} (the sample proportion) is given by \mu_{\hat{p}}=p. Thus, \mu_{\hat{p}}=0.8.The standard deviation of the sampling distribution of \hat{p} is calculated using the formula \sigma_{\hat{p}} = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}} \times \sqrt{\frac{N-n}{N-1}}.First, calculate the \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}} term:\[\sqrt{\frac{0.8(1-0.8)}{75}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.8(0.2)}{75}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.16}{75}} = \sqrt{0.0021333} \approx 0.0462 \]Then, adjust for the finite population using the finite population correction factor:\[\sqrt{\frac{10,000 - 75}{10,000 - 1}} = \sqrt{\frac{9,925}{9,999}} \approx \sqrt{0.9925} \approx 0.9962 \]Multiply these two results together to find \sigma_{\hat{p}}:\[0.0462 \times 0.9962 \approx 0.046 \]Thus, the standard deviation \sigma_{\hat{p}} \approx 0.046So, the sampling distribution of \hat{p} is approximately normal with mean 0.8 and standard deviation 0.046.
02

Calculate the probability \mathbf{P(\hat{p} \geq 0.84)}

First, convert the sample proportion \hat{p} = 0.84 into a z-score:\[z = \frac{\hat{p} - \mu_{\hat{p}}}{\sigma_{\hat{p}}} = \frac{0.84 - 0.8}{0.046} = \frac{0.04}{0.046} \approx 0.87 \]Using the standard normal distribution table, find the probability corresponding to z = 0.87.\[P(Z \geq 0.87) = 1 - P(Z < 0.87) \]From the standard normal table, P(Z < 0.87) \approx 0.8078.Thus, the probability is:\[P(Z \geq 0.87) = 1 - 0.8078 = 0.1922 \]So, \[P(\hat{p} \geq 0.84) \approx 0.1922 \]
03

Calculate the probability \mathbf{P(\hat{p} \leq 0.68)}

Convert the sample proportion \hat{p} = 0.68 into a z-score:\[z = \frac{\hat{p} - \mu_{\hat{p}}}{\sigma_{\hat{p}}} = \frac{0.68 - 0.8}{0.046} = \frac{-0.12}{0.046} \approx -2.61 \]Using the standard normal distribution table, find the probability corresponding to z = -2.61.\[P(Z \leq -2.61) \]From the standard normal table, P(Z \leq -2.61) \approx 0.0045.So, \[P(\hat{p} \leq 0.68) \approx 0.0045 \]

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportion
The sample proportion, often denoted as \(\hat{p}\), is a key concept in statistics. It represents the proportion of a specific characteristic within a sample. For example, if we take a sample of 75 individuals from a population and we know that 0.8, or 80%, of the population has a certain characteristic, the sample proportion \(\hat{p}\) is the proportion of those 75 individuals who have that characteristic. The formula to find the sample proportion is simple: \(\hat{p} = \frac{x}{n}\), where \(\hat{p}\) is the sample proportion, \(\frac{x}{n}\) is the number of individuals with the characteristic in the sample, and \(\frac{x}{n}\) is the sample size.
Standard Deviation
The standard deviation measures the amount of variability or dispersion of a set of values. In the context of a sampling distribution, the standard deviation of the sample proportion \(\hat{p}\) indicates how much the sample proportion is expected to vary from sample to sample. The formula to calculate this is: \(\sigma_{\hat{p}} = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n} \times \frac{N-n}{N-1}}\). Here, \(\frac{p(1-p)}{n}\) adjusts for the population proportion and sample size, and the correction factor \(\sqrt{\frac{N-n}{N-1}}\) adjusts for finite populations. This accounts for scenarios where the population is not infinite, providing a more accurate measure of variability.
Z-Score
A z-score indicates how many standard deviations an element is from the mean. It's used in probability calculations with the standard normal distribution. To convert a sample proportion to a z-score, you use the formula: \(\frac{\hat{p} - \mu_{\hat{p}}}{\sigma_{\hat{p}}}\). In our problem, for example, if \(\hat{p}\) is 0.84 with a mean \mu_{\hat{p}} of 0.8 and a standard deviation \sigma_{\hat{p}} of 0.046, you would get \(\frac{0.84 - 0.8}{0.046} \approx 0.87\). This z-score tells us that the sample proportion of 0.84 is 0.87 standard deviations above the mean.
Probability Calculation
Calculating probabilities using the standard normal distribution involves converting your values to z-scores and then using the standard normal distribution table. For example, if we want to find the probability of obtaining a sample proportion of 0.84 or higher, we calculate its z-score as 0.87 and refer to the standard normal table. For z = 0.87, the cumulative probability is approximately 0.8078. Thus, the probability is: \(\mathbf{P(Z \geq 0.87)} \approx 1-0.8078 = 0.1922\). This tells us there is about a 19.22% chance of obtaining a sample proportion this high or higher. Similarly, calculating the probability for \(\hat{p}\) \(\leq 0.68\) involves finding the corresponding z-score (in this case -2.61) and using the standard normal table, which reveals a much lower probability value.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The following data represent the ages of the winners of the Academy Award for Best Actor for the years \(1999-2004\) $$\begin{array}{lr} 2004: \text { Jamie Foxx } & 37 \\ \hline 2003 \text { - Sean Penn } & 43 \\ \hline 2002 \text { . Adrien Brody } & 29 \\ \hline 2001: \text { Denzel Washington } & 47 \\ \hline 2000 \text { . Russell Crowe } & 36 \\ \hline 1999 \text { . Kevin Spacey } & 40 \end{array}$$ (a) Compute the population mean, \(\mu\) (b) List all possible samples with size \(n=2\). There should be \(_{6} C_{2}=15\) samples. (c) Construct a sampling distribution for the mean by listing the sample means and their corresponding probabilities. (d) Compute the mean of the sampling distribution. (e) Compute the probability that the sample mean is within 3 years of the population mean age. (f) Repeat parts \((b)-(e)\) using samples of size \(n=3\) Comment on the effect of increasing the sample size.

Suppose a simple random sample of size \(n=40\) is obtained from a population with \(\mu=50\) and \(\sigma=4 .\) Does the population need to be normally distributed for the sampling distribution of \(\bar{x}\) to be approximately normally distributed? Why? What is the sampling distribution of \(\bar{x} ?\)

The shape of the distribution of the time required to get an oil change at a 10 -minute oil-change facility is unknown. However, records indicate that the mean time for an oil change is 11.4 minutes and the standard deviation for oil-change time is 3.2 minutes. (a) To compute probabilities regarding the sample mean using the normal model, what size sample would be required? (b) What is the probability that a random sample of \(n=40\) oil changes results in a sample mean time less than 10 minutes?

According to a CNN report, \(7 \%\) of the population do not have traditional phones and instead rely on only cell phones. Suppose a random sample of 750 telephone users is obtained. (a) Describe the sampling distribution of \(\hat{p},\) the sample proportion that is "cell-phone only." (b) In a random sample of 750 telephone users, what is the probability that more than \(8 \%\) are "cell-phone only"? (c) Would it be unusual if a random sample of 750 adults results in 40 or fewer being "cell-phone only"?

Suppose a simple random sample of size \(n=12\) is obtained from a population with \(\mu=64\) and \(\sigma=17\) (a) What must be true regarding the distribution of the population in order to use the normal model to compute probabilities regarding the sample mean? Assuming this condition is true, describe the sampling distribution of \(\bar{x}\) (b) Assuming the requirements described in part (a) are satisfied, determine \(P(\bar{x}<67.3)\) (c) Assuming the requirements described in part (a) are satisfied, determine \(P(\bar{x} \geq 65.2)\)

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