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Assume the random variable \(X\) is normally distributed with mean \(\mu=50\) and standard deviation \(\sigma=7 .\) Compute the following probabilities. Be sure to draw a normal curve with the area corresponding to the probability shaded. $$P(X \leq 45)$$

Short Answer

Expert verified
0.2389

Step by step solution

01

Standardize the Variable

First, convert the value 45 to a standard normal variable (Z-score) using the formula: \[Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}\] Given that \(\mu = 50\) and \(\sigma = 7\), calculate the Z-score for \(X = 45\): \[Z = \frac{45 - 50}{7} = \frac{-5}{7} \approx -0.71\]
02

Find the Corresponding Probability

Using the Z-score table or a calculator, find the probability that the standard normal variable is less than or equal to -0.71. \[P(Z \leq -0.71)\] This value corresponds to approximately 0.2389.
03

Interpret the Result

The probability \(P(X \leq 45)\) is 0.2389. This represents the area under the normal curve to the left of 45. To complete the solution, sketch a normal curve, labeling the mean at 50 and shading the area to the left of 45.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Normal curve
The normal curve, also known as the Gaussian curve, is a common way of representing a normal distribution. This curve is symmetric about the mean, which is located at the center of the distribution. It has a bell shape and its highest point occurs at the mean. The spread of the curve is determined by the standard deviation.
  • The mean marks the central point.
  • The standard deviation measures how spread out the values are.

In the given exercise, the normal curve is centered at 50 with a standard deviation of 7. When you draw this curve, you will see the bell shape centered at 50, and your task is to find the probability that a value falls to the left of 45.
Z-score
The Z-score, or standard score, describes the position of a particular value in terms of standard deviations from the mean. It allows us to prescribe how unusual or typical a certain value is within a normal distribution.
The Z-score is calculated using the formula: \ \(Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}\).
Here's what each part means:
  • \mu is the mean of the dataset.
  • \sigma is the standard deviation.
  • X is the value you are converting to a Z-score.

In the problem, we computed the Z-score for X = 45 which corresponds to \ \( Z \approx -0.71 \). This tells us that 45 is about 0.71 standard deviations below the mean.
Standard normal variable
A standard normal variable (Z) is a normalized version of a random variable, adjusted so that it has a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. This standardization allows for easy comparison across different datasets.
The process of standardizing converts any normal distribution to a standard normal distribution using the calculated Z-score.
  • A Z-score of 0 corresponds to the mean.
  • Positive Z-scores are above the mean.
  • Negative Z-scores are below the mean.

With a Z-score of \ \( Z \approx -0.71 \), we've determined where our value (45) falls relative to the mean (50) of our original distribution. The next step is to use the Z-score to find the desired probability.
Probability calculation
Once you have the Z-score, the next step is to calculate the probability. This is done using a Z-score table or an online calculator.
These tools provide the area under the standard normal curve to the left of the given Z-score. For our Z-score of \ \( Z \approx -0.71 \), this area, or probability, is approximately 0.2389. This means that there is a 23.89% chance that a value will fall to the left of 45 in our original distribution.

By sketching the normal curve, labeling the mean, and shading the appropriate area, you can visually represent the solution. This helps in understanding how the components of the normal distribution and Z-scores work together to calculate probabilities.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Times The mean incubation time of fertilized chicken eggs kept at \(100.5^{\circ} \mathrm{F}\) in a still-air incubator is 21 days. Suppose the incubation times are approximately normally distributed with a standard deviation of 1 day. (Source: University of Illinois Extension.) (a) What is the probability that a randomly selected fertilized chicken egg hatches in less than 20 days? (b) What is the probability that a randomly selected fertilized chicken egg takes over 22 days to hatch? (c) What is the probability that a randomly selected fertilized chicken egg hatches between 19 and 21 days? (d) Would it be unusual for an egg to hatch in less than 18 days?

In clinical trials of a medication whose purpose is to reduce the pain associated with migraine headaches, \(2 \%\) of the patients in the study experienced weight gain as a side effect. Suppose a random sample of 600 users of this medication is obtained. Use the normal approximation to the binomial to (a) approximate the probability that exactly 20 will experience weight gain as a side effect. (b) approximate the probability that 20 or fewer will experience weight gain as a side effect. (c) approximate the probability that 22 or more patients will experience weight gain as a side effect. (d) approximate the probability that between 20 and 30 patients, inclusive, will experience weight gain as a side effect.

Describe the procedure for finding the area under any normal curve.

Suppose the reaction time \(X\) (in minutes) of a certain chemical process follows a uniform probability distribution with \(5 \leq X \leq 10\) (a) Draw the graph of the density curve. (b) What is the probability that the reaction time is between 6 and 8 minutes? (c) What is the probability that the reaction time is between 5 and 8 minutes? (d) What is the probability that the reaction time is less than 6 minutes?

A discrete random variable is given. Assume the probability of the random variable will be approximated using the normal distribution. Describe the area under the normal curve that will be computed. For example, if we wish to compute the probability of finding at least five defective items in a shipment, we would approximate the probability by computing the area under the normal curve to the right of \(X=4.5\). The probability that the number of tornadoes that occur in the month of May is between 30 and \(40,\) inclusive.

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