Chapter 6: Problem 42
College Freshmen According to the Higher Education Research Institute, \(55 \%\) of college freshmen in 4-year colleges and universities during 2003 were female. Suppose 12 freshmen are randomly selected and the number of females is recorded. (a) Find the probability that exactly 7 of them are female. (b) Find the probability that 5 or more are female. (c) Find the probability that 8 or fewer are female. (d) Find the probability that between 7 and \(10,\) inclusive, are female.
Short Answer
Step by step solution
Define the Problem
Setup the Binomial Formula
Step 3a: Calculate P(X=7) for part (a)
Step 4a: Find the Cumulative Probability for P(X ≥ 5) in part (b)
Step 5a: Use Technology for Cumulative Probability
Step 6a: Calculate the Cumulative Probability for P(X ≤ 8) in part (c)
Step 7a: Use Technology for Cumulative Probability
Step 8a: Find the Probability for 7 ≤ X ≤ 10 in part (d)
Step 9a: Use Technology for Probability Calculation
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Key Concepts
These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.
Probability Calculation
First, determine the basic probability of success (getting a female) in one trial. For this exercise, it's given as 0.55. Then, calculate the specific probabilities using the binomial formula, which we'll discuss further below.
Using a binomial calculator or software can speed up the calculations and reduce potential errors. For example, part (a) in the given exercise involves calculating the probability of exactly 7 females out of 12. You simply plug in the values into the formula and compute the result.
Summarized steps to calculate the probability:
- Identify the probability of the desired outcome.
- Use the binomial formula to get the exact probability for a given number of trials and successes.
- Sum individual probabilities for a range of outcomes for cumulative probabilities (explained below).
Cumulative Probability
In part (b) of the exercise, you need the cumulative probability that 5 or more freshmen are females, which means you sum probabilities from 5 to 12.
The formula remains the same, but you need to perform multiple calculations:
oindent \[ P(X \text{≥} 5) = P(X = 5) + P(X = 6) + \ldots + P(X = 12). \]
For part (c), we find the cumulative probability for 8 or fewer females. Here, sum all probabilities from 0 to 8:
oindent \[ P(X \text{≤} 8) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + \ldots + P(X = 8). \]
In many practical applications, using a binomial calculator or software simplifies cumulative probability computations. Simply input the range and other parameters to get the result quickly.
Binomial Formula
oindent \[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \]
Where:
- is the total number of trials (12 freshmen).
- k is the number of successful outcomes (e.g., number of females).
- \binom{n}{k} is a combination function representing the number of ways to choose k successes from n trials, calculated as: \[ \binom{n}{k} = \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!} \]
- p is the probability of success on an individual trial (0.55, or 55% for females).
- (1-p) is the probability of failure on an individual trial (0.45).
For example, in part (a), we calculate the probability of exactly 7 females by substituting n = 12, k = 7, and p = 0.55:
oindent \[ P(X = 7) = \binom{12}{7} (0.55)^7 (0.45)^5. \]
This gives the precise likelihood of 7 freshmen being female out of 12.
Combinatorics
In binomial distribution, we use combinatorial calculations to determine the number of ways to choose a certain number of successes (k) from a total number of trials (n). The combination formula, denoted as \binom{n}{k}, is used for this purpose.
For example, in calculating \binom{12}{7} for part (a) of the exercise, we compute:
oindent \[ \binom{12}{7} = \frac{12!}{7!(12-7)!} = \frac{12!}{7!5!} = 792 \]
This tells us there are 792 ways to choose 7 females out of 12 freshmen. Knowing combinatorics is essential as it underpins the whole binomial formula and allows us to find combinations efficiently.