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High-Speed Internet According to a report by the Commerce Department in the fall of \(2004,20 \%\) of U.S. households had some type of high-speed Internet connection. Suppose 20 U.S. households are selected at random and the number of households with high-speed Internet is recorded. (a) Find the probability that exactly 5 households have high-speed Internet. (b) Find the probability that at least 10 households have high-speed Internet. Would this be unusual? (c) Find the probability that fewer than 4 households have high-speed Internet. (d) Find the probability that between 2 and 5 households, inclusive, have high-speed Internet.

Short Answer

Expert verified
P(X=5) ≈ 0.1746. P(X≥10) is very low and unusual. P(X<4) ≈ 0.1008. P(2≤X≤5) ≈ 0.6624.

Step by step solution

01

- Define Parameters

Given: 20% of U.S. households have high-speed Internet. Let the number of households, n, be 20. Let the probability of success (a household having high-speed Internet), p, be 0.2. The complementary probability, q, is 1 - p, which is 0.8.
02

- Recognize Binomial Distribution

This problem follows a binomial distribution where the number of trials n is 20 and the probability of success p is 0.2. Use the binomial probability formula: \[ P(X=k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \] where k is the number of successes.
03

- Calculate Probability for (a)

For part (a), we need to find the probability that exactly 5 households have high-speed Internet. Substitute n=20, k=5, and p=0.2 into the binomial formula:\[ P(X=5) = \binom{20}{5} (0.2)^5 (0.8)^{15} \] Evaluate the binomial coefficient and the powers of p and q to find the probability.
04

- Calculate Probability for (b)

For part (b), find the probability that at least 10 households have high-speed Internet. This is the sum of probabilities from 10 to 20. \[ P(X \text{≥}10) = \binom{20}{10}(0.2)^{10}(0.8)^{10} + \binom{20}{11}(0.2)^{11}(0.8)^{9} + ... + \binom{20}{20}(0.2)^{20}(0.8)^{0} \] Calculate these probabilities individually and sum them.
05

- Determine Unusualness for (b)

Generally, an event with a probability less than 0.05 is considered unusual. If the calculated probability is less than 0.05, then it is unusual for at least 10 households to have high-speed Internet.
06

- Calculate Probability for (c)

For part (c), find the probability that fewer than 4 households have high-speed Internet. This is the sum of probabilities from 0 to 3. \[ P(X < 4) = \binom{20}{0}(0.2)^0(0.8)^{20} + \binom{20}{1}(0.2)^1(0.8)^{19} + \binom{20}{2}(0.2)^2(0.8)^{18} + \binom{20}{3}(0.2)^3(0.8)^{17} \] Calculate these probabilities individually and sum them.
07

- Calculate Probability for (d)

For part (d), find the probability that between 2 and 5 households, inclusive, have high-speed Internet. \[ P(2 \text{≤} X \text{≤} 5) = \binom{20}{2}(0.2)^{2}(0.8)^{18} + \binom{20}{3}(0.2)^{3}(0.8)^{17} + \binom{20}{4}(0.2)^{4}(0.8)^{16} + \binom{20}{5}(0.2)^{5}(0.8)^{15} \] Calculate these probabilities individually and sum them.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Theory
Probability theory is the mathematical framework for quantifying uncertainty. It allows us to make informed predictions about uncertain events. In the given exercise, we use probability theory to calculate occurrences in a binomial distribution context. To start with, understand the basics:

- **Probability (p):** It's a measure of the likelihood that an event will occur. It ranges from 0 (impossible event) to 1 (certain event).
- **Complementary Probability (q):** This is the probability that an event will not occur (q = 1 - p).

The exercise question defines the probability p = 0.2 for a household having high-speed internet and q = 0.8 for not having it. By implementing probability theory, we can solve for the probability of different numbers of households having high-speed internet among 20 households. This foundational understanding makes it possible to calculate exact probabilities using the binomial distribution formula.
Statistical Analysis
Statistical analysis involves collecting, organizing, analyzing, interpreting, and presenting data. In our problem, we statistically analyze the given data to find the probabilities of certain outcomes.

To structure a proper statistical analysis, follow these steps:

- **Define Parameters:** Identify n (number of trials) and p (probability of success). Here, n=20 and p=0.2.
- **Apply Binomial Distribution:** Use the binomial distribution formula: \[ P(X=k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \] which shows the probability of k successes in n trials.
- **Calculate Probabilities:** For specific requirements like exactly 5 households or fewer than 4 households, substitute appropriate values into the formula and sum as needed.

In statistical analysis, interpreting your results is key. For example, in part (b) of the problem, determining whether the probability of at least 10 households having high-speed internet is unusual involves assessing the calculated probability against a threshold (typically 0.05). Proper statistical analysis uncovers meaningful insights from data.
Probability Distributions
Probability distributions show us how probabilities are distributed over various outcomes. Specifically, a binomial distribution represents the number of successes in a sequence of independent experiments.

Key characteristics of binomial distribution include:

- **Number of Trials (n):** Fixed number of experiments or trials (in our case, 20 households).
- **Probability of Success (p):** Constant probability for any given trial (20% or 0.2 here).
- **Discrete Distribution:** Only distinct values (e.g., 0, 1, 2, ..., 20) are possible outcomes.

Using the binomial distribution, we can answer different parts of our problem:

- **Exact Probability:** For part (a), find P(X=5).
- **Cumulative Probability:** For part (b), sum probabilities from X=10 to X=20.
- **Range Probability:** For part (d), find the sum from X=2 to X=5.

Understanding these distributions helps compare different outcomes and make data-driven decisions. In sum, the binomial distribution is pivotal in determining probabilities for specified scenarios and ranges.

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