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A binomial probability experiment is conducted with the given parameters. Compute the probability of \(x\) success in the \(n\) independent trials of the experiment. \(n=20, p=0.7, x \geq 12\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that at least 12 out of 20 trials are successful given a success probability of 0.7 per trial.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the binomial probability formula

The binomial probability formula is given by \[P(X = x) = \binom{n}{x} p^x (1-p)^{n-x}\]where \( \binom{n}{x} \) is the binomial coefficient, \(p\) is the probability of success in a single trial, \(1 - p\) is the probability of failure, \(n\) is the number of trials, and \(x\) is the number of successes.
02

Compute the binomial coefficient

The binomial coefficient \(\binom{n}{x}\) is calculated using the formula: \[ \binom{n}{x} = \frac{n!}{x! (n-x)!} \] where \(n!\) is the factorial of \(n\).
03

Calculate individual probabilities

For each value of \(x\) from 12 to 20, calculate the probability \(P(X = x)\). This involves computing the binomial coefficient, raising \(p\) to the power of \(x\), and raising \((1-p)\) to the power of \(n-x\).
04

Sum the probabilities

Sum the probabilities calculated in the previous step for all values of \(x\) from 12 to 20. This gives the cumulative probability of having at least 12 successes in 20 trials.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

binomial coefficient
The binomial coefficient is a key part of the binomial probability formula. It helps us determine how many ways we can achieve a certain number of successes in a fixed number of trials. The formula for the binomial coefficient is \(\binom{n}{x} = \frac{n!}{x! (n-x)!}\). This formula uses factorials, which are the product of all positive integers up to a given number. For example, 4! (read as '4 factorial') is equal to 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 24.

In our example, where we have n = 20 trials and want to find the probability of getting at least 12 successes (x ≥ 12), we need to calculate the binomial coefficients for x = 12, 13, ..., up to 20. Each factorial calculation helps us see how many different ways those specific numbers of successes can happen in those trials.
probability of success
The probability of success in a single trial, denoted as \(p\), is crucial when solving binomial probability questions. It tells us the chance that a single trial will result in success. For our example, p = 0.7, which means there's a 70% chance of success in each trial.

The binomial probability formula \(P(X = x) = \binom{n}{x} p^x (1-p)^{n-x}\) uses this probability in two places:
  • \(p^x\): Probability of having all x successes.
  • \((1-p)^{n-x}\): Probability of having the remaining trials as failures.
So, for x = 12, 13, ..., 20, we need to raise p to the power of x each time and also raise (1-p) to the power of n-x.
cumulative probability
Cumulative probability is about finding the total chance of a range of outcomes happening. In this exercise, we want to find the cumulative probability of getting at least 12 successes in 20 trials.

To do that, we calculate individual probabilities for each x (from 12 to 20) using the binomial probability formula. Then, we add up all these individual probabilities to get the cumulative probability.

For instance, if \( P(X = 12) = 0.15 \) and \( P(X = 13) = 0.20 \), and so on till \( P(X = 20) \), summing these up gives us the total probability of having at least 12 successes in the experiment.

This step-by-step process helps us understand not just exact probabilities but also ranges of outcomes, providing a deeper insight into the likelihood of various events.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Smokers According to the Information Please Almanac, \(80 \%\) of adult smokers started smoking before turning 18 years old. (a) Compute the mean and standard deviation of the random variable \(X,\) the number of smokers who started before 18 in 200 trials of the probability experiment. (b) Interpret the mean. (c) Would it be unusual to observe 180 smokers who started smoking before turning 18 years old in a random sample of 200 adult smokers? Why?

Determine which of the following probability experiments represents a binomial experiment. If the probability experiment is not a binomial experiment, state why. An investor randomly purchases 10 stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Historically, the probability that a stock listed on the NYSE will increase in value over the course of a year is \(48 \% .\) The number of stocks that increase in value is recorded.

A binomial probability experiment is conducted with the given parameters. Compute the probability of \(x\) success in the \(n\) independent trials of the experiment. \(n=9, p=0.2, x \leq 3\)

On-Time Flights According to American Airlines, its Elight 215 from Orlando to Los Angeles is on time \(90 \%\) of the time. Suppose 100 flights are randomly selected. (a) Compute the mean and standard deviation of the random variable \(X,\) the number of on-time flights in 100 trials of the probability experiment. (b) Interpret the mean. (c) Would it be unusual to observe 80 on-time flights in a random sample of 100 flights from Orlando to Los Angeles? Why?

Migraine Sufferers Depakote is a medication whose purpose is to reduce the pain associated with migraine headaches. In clinical trials of Depakote, \(2 \%\) of the patients in the study experienced weight gain as a side effect. Suppose a random sample of 30 Depakote users is obtained and the number of patients who experienced weight gain is recorded. (Source:Abbott Laboratories) (a) Find the probability that exactly 3 experienced weight gain as a side effect. (b) Find the probability that 3 or fewer experienced weight gain as a side effect. (c) Find the probability that 4 or more patients experienced weight gain as a side effect. (d) Find the probability that between 1 and 4 patients, inclusive, experienced weight gain as a side effect.

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