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Bob is asked to construct a probability model for rolling a pair of fair dice. He lists the outcomes as \(2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 .\) Because there are 11 outcomes, he reasoned, the probability of rolling a two must be \(\frac{1}{11} .\) What is wrong with Bob's reasoning?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Bob incorrectly assumed all sums are equally likely. The correct probability of rolling a sum of 2 is \[ \frac{1}{36}\].

Step by step solution

01

Identify the total number of possible outcomes

When rolling two six-sided fair dice, each die has 6 faces, so the total number of possible outcomes is given by multiplying the number of faces on each die. Therefore, the total number of possible outcomes is \(6 \times 6 = 36\).
02

Identify the number of ways to obtain a sum of 2

To get a sum of 2, the only possible roll is (1,1). So, there is exactly 1 way to roll a 2.
03

Calculate the correct probability for rolling a sum of 2

The probability of rolling a 2 is the ratio of the number of ways to roll a 2 to the total number of possible outcomes. Therefore, \[ P(2) = \frac{1}{36}\].
04

Explain what Bob did wrong

Bob incorrectly assumed that each possible outcome of the sum (2 through 12) is equally likely, and thus divided by 11. However, the sums are not equally probable. Some sums have more combinations leading to them (e.g., 7 can be rolled in 6 different ways), whereas 2 can only be rolled in 1 way. Hence, his reasoning for the probability is incorrect.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Total Possible Outcomes
When working with probability models involving dice, it's crucial to understand the concept of total possible outcomes. Each die has 6 faces, numbered from 1 to 6. When rolling two dice, each face of the first die can pair with any face of the second die.
Therefore, the total number of outcomes is found by multiplying the number of faces on each die:
6 faces (die 1) × 6 faces (die 2) = 36 total outcomes.
This means, there are 36 different results when you roll two dice, ranging from (1,1) to (6,6).

Understanding the total possible outcomes is the foundation for calculating any probability involving dice. Make sure to count all combinations correctly to avoid errors similar to Bob's mistake.
Sum of Two Dice
When rolling two dice, each pair of numbers will result in a specific sum. These sums range from 2 (1+1) to 12 (6+6). However, not all sums appear with the same frequency.
For example:
  • The sum of 2 can only occur in one way: (1,1).
  • Similarly, sum of 3 can occur in two ways: (1,2) and (2,1).

The most common sum is 7, which can be achieved in six different ways: (1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), and (6,1). Hence, each sum has different probabilities of occurring. Recognizing these combinations helps in understanding why some sums are more frequent than others.
Probability Calculation
To calculate the probability of a specific event occurring, divide the number of ways that event can happen by the total number of possible outcomes.
In the case of rolling a sum of 2 with two dice:
  • Number of ways to get a sum of 2: 1 (only (1,1))
  • Total possible outcomes: 36

The probability of rolling a sum of 2 is therefore \(\frac{1}{36}\). Correctly calculating probabilities relies on an accurate count of successful outcomes and total outcomes.
Combinatorial Probability
Combinatorial probability involves counting possible combinations and understanding how they relate to probability. In the context of dice rolls, it helps determine the likelihood of specific sums.
For example, to find the probability of rolling a sum of 7:
  • Identify all possible combinations that give a sum of 7: (1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), and (6,1).
  • Count the number of successful combinations: 6.
  • Total possible outcomes: 36.
The probability of rolling a sum of 7 is \(\frac{6}{36} = \frac{1}{6}\).
Combinatorial probability requires careful counting of possible successful outcomes, ensuring none are missed, and understanding their relation to the total number of possible outcomes.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Suppose a single card is selected from a standard 52 -card deck. What is the probability that the card drawn is a club? Now suppose a single card is drawn from a standard 52 -card deck, but we are told that the card is black. What is the probability that the card drawn is a club?

In five-card stud poker, a player is dealt five cards. The probability that the player is dealt two cards of the same value and three other cards of different value so that the player has a pair is 0.42. Explain what this probability means. If you play five-card stud 100 times, will you get a pair exactly 42 times? Why or why not?

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John, Roberto, Clarice, Dominique, and Marco work for a publishing company. The company wants to send two employees to a statistics conference in Orlando. To be fair, the company decides that the two individuals who get to attend will have their names drawn from a hat. This is like obtaining a simple random sample of size 2 (a) Determine the sample space of the experiment. That is, list all possible simple random samples of size \(n=2\) (b) What is the probability that Clarice and Dominique attend the conference? (c) What is the probability that Clarice attends the conference? (d) What is the probability that John stays home?

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