/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 17 Suppose that each day the price ... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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Suppose that each day the price of a stock moves up \(1 / 8\) of a point, moves down \(1 / 8\) of a point, or remains unchanged. For \(i \geq 1\), let \(U_{i}\) and \(D_{i}\) be the events that the price of the stock moves up and down on the \(i\) th trading day, respectively. In terms of \(U_{i}\) 's and \(D_{i}\) 's find an expression for the event that the price of the stock (a) remains unchanged on the \(i\) th trading day; (b) moves up every day of the next \(n\) trading days; (c) remains unchanged on at least one of the next \(n\) trading days; (d) is the same as today after three trading days; (e) does not move down on any of the next \(n\) trading days.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The events are expressed as: (a) \(U_{i}' \cap D_{i}'\) (b) \(U_i \cap U_{i+1} \cap ... \cap U_{i+n-1}\) (c) \(\bigcup_{i=1}^{n}(U_{i}' \cap D_{i}')\) (d) \((U_i \cap U_{i+1} \cap D_{i+2}) \cup (U_i \cap D_{i+1} \cap U_{i+2}) \cup (D_i \cap U_{i+1} \cap U_{i+2}) \cup (U_i' \cap D_i' \cap U_{i+1}' \cap D_{i+1}' \cap U_{i+2}' \cap D_{i+2}')\)(e) \(D_{i}' \cap D_{i+1}' \cap ... \cap D_{i+n-1}'\)

Step by step solution

01

Formulate Event for Unchanged Stock Price

The event that the price of the stock remains unchanged on the \(i\) th trading day could mean neither \(U_i\) nor \(D_i\). We can represent it as \(U_{i}' \cap D_{i}'\), where \(U_{i}'\) and \(D_{i}'\) represent the complement of events \(U_{i}\) and \(D_{i}\) respectively.
02

Formulate Event for Stock Price Moving Up

The event that the stock price moves up every day of the next \(n\) trading days means the stock price rises on day \(i\), day \(i+1\), day \(i+2\), ..., day \(i+n-1\). This can be expressed as \(U_i \cap U_{i+1} \cap ... \cap U_{i+n-1}\).
03

Formulate Event for Unchanged Stock Price in Future Days

The event that the stock price remains unchanged on at least one of the next \(n\) trading days can be represented as \(\bigcup_{i=1}^{n}(U_{i}' \cap D_{i}')\), which denotes the stock price remains unchanged on \(i\) th day or \((i+1)\) th day or ... or \((n)\) th day.
04

Formulate Event for Price Same as Today After Three trading days

The event that the price is the same as today after three trading days could mean the stock price increases twice and decreases once with no order necessary, or the price remains unchanged for all of the three days. It can be represented as \((U_i \cap U_{i+1} \cap D_{i+2}) \cup (U_i \cap D_{i+1} \cap U_{i+2}) \cup (D_i \cap U_{i+1} \cap U_{i+2}) \cup (U_i' \cap D_i' \cap U_{i+1}' \cap D_{i+1}' \cap U_{i+2}' \cap D_{i+2}')\).
05

Formulate Event for Price Not Moving Down in Future Days.

The event that the stock price does not move down on any of the next \(n\) trading days means the stock does not decrease in price on \(i\) th day, \((i+1)\) th day,..., \((i+n-1)\) th day. This can be expressed as \(D_{i}' \cap D_{i+1}' \cap ... \cap D_{i+n-1}'\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Events
In the world of stock trading, an event is a specific outcome or occurrence related to the movement of stock prices. Each day, stock prices can either move up, move down, or stay the same. Every possible occurrence of these movements on a given trading day can be seen as an event.
For example, if on the third trading day the stock price moves up, that is an event. In our exercise, events are represented as \( U_i \) for price moving up and \( D_i \) for price moving down.
To describe events where prices do not follow these paths, we use complements such as \( U_i' \) and \( D_i' \), which signify non-occurrence of these events, like the stock not moving up or down, respectively. Events are crucial when we calculate probabilities, as they form the basis for applying probability expressions to analyze likely price movements.
Trading Days
Trading days are essential in financial markets because they determine when stocks can be traded. They are the business days on which exchanges are open, typically Monday to Friday, excluding public holidays. In discussions involving stock price probabilities, trading days are used as time markers to predict and analyze patterns.
In this exercise, different scenarios are analyzed over trading days to form expressions of probability. For instance, understanding how a stock behaves over the next \( n \) trading days might include looking at the event of price rising on each day or ensuring no price drop occurs. Each day becomes an integral part of predicting future stock market behavior by discussing trading days in contexts like the price being unchanged for 'at least one of the next \( n \) trading days'. This helps in forming complex probability expressions by using simple daily movements as building blocks.
Probability Expressions
Probability expressions are valuable tools in quantifying the likelihood of certain events in the stock market. These expressions use mathematical symbols and logic to articulate scenarios where specific events, like stock price changes, occur under defined conditions.
In probability math, we often use concepts like unions and intersections to conjure complex scenarios out of simpler events. For instance, the intersection \( U_i \cap U_{i+1} \) explains a situation where the stock price rises on consecutive trading days. On the other side, union expressions such as \( \bigcup_{i=1}^{n}(U_{i}' \cap D_{i}') \) depict scenarios where at least one condition is met, like the stock price remaining unchanged on any of several days.
These expressions tell us more about patterns and help traders and analysts predict future market trends. Understanding these concepts is essential for better risk management and strategy development for both short-term and long-term investments.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Answer the following question, from the "Ask Marilyn" column of Parade Magazine, March 3, \(1996 .\) My dad heard this story on the radio. At Duke University, two students had received A's in chemistry all semester. But on the night before the final exam, they were partying in another state and didn't get back to Duke until it was over. Their excuse to the professor was that they had a flat tire, and they asked if they could take a make-up test. The professor agreed, wrote out a test and sent the two to separate rooms to take it. The first question (on one side of the paper) was worth 5 points, and they answered it easily. Then they flipped the paper over and found the second question, worth 95 points: 'Which tire was it?' What was the probability that both students would say the same thing? My dad and I think it's 1 in 16 . Is that right?

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