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91Ó°ÊÓ

On August \(1,\) a portfolio manager has a bond portfolio worth 10 million. The duration of the portfolio in October will be 7.1 years. The December Treasury bond futures price is currently 91-12 and the cheapest-to-deliver bond will have a duration of 8.8 years at maturity. How should the portfolio manager immunize the portfolio against changes in interest rates over the next two months?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The portfolio manager should sell approximately 89 Treasury bond futures contracts to immunize the portfolio.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Duration

Duration is a measure of the sensitivity of the bond's price to changes in interest rates. Here, the portfolio duration is 7.1 years. This means for a 1% increase in interest rates, the portfolio's value is expected to decrease by approximately 7.1%. To immunize or hedge against interest rate changes, adjustments need to be made that account for this sensitivity.
02

Calculating the Futures Contract Price

The quoted bond futures price of 91-12 is a fraction where the whole number is added to the fraction 12/32. This gives the full quotation: 91 + 12/32 = 91.375. This value will be used later on to determine how many futures contracts are needed to offset the portfolio's exposure.
03

Determine the Price of the Futures Contract

The futures price is typically quoted per $100 face value. However, the position to be hedged involves a portfolio worth $10 million. Convert this value relative to the per-$100 basis by multiplying by 100 ($10 million/$100 face value).
04

Calculate the Conversion Factor

The hedge requires finding the price sensitivity of the futures contract. This requires using the modified duration of the cheapest-to-deliver bond when interest rates change. Its duration, at 8.8 years, is longer than the portfolio's, indicating a different sensitivity to interest rate changes.
05

Determine the Number of Futures Contracts Needed

The number of contracts needed is based on matching the interest rate exposure (duration) of the bonds and the futures. Use the formula:\[\text{Number of Futures Contracts} = \frac{\text{Portfolio's value} \times \text{Portfolio's Duration}}{\text{Futures Price} \times \text{Duration of CTD}}\]Substitute the known values where the portfolio value is \(10 million, the portfolio duration is 7.1 years, futures price is \)91.375, and the duration of CTD is 8.8 years.
06

Calculating the Exact Contracts

Substitute the specific values:\[\text{Number of Futures Contracts} = \frac{10,000,000 \times 7.1}{91,375 \times 8.8}\]Calculate this value to find the number of contracts needed to neutralize the interest rate exposure of the entire portfolio.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Interest Rate Risk
Interest rate risk is the risk that changes in interest rates will affect the value of financial instruments such as bonds. When interest rates rise, the price of bonds typically falls, leading to potential losses for investors. This is because the fixed interest payments of bonds become less attractive compared to new bonds issued at higher rates.
For bond portfolio managers, understanding and managing interest rate risk is crucial. They use tools like duration, which measures how sensitive a bond's price is to interest rate changes. A longer duration means more sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations, whereas a shorter duration indicates less sensitivity.
To shield a bond portfolio from adverse interest rate movements, managers often employ strategies to "immunize" or "hedge" against these risks, ensuring that potential losses from rate changes are minimized.
Portfolio Duration
Portfolio duration is a weighted average of the durations of the individual bonds within a portfolio. It reflects the overall sensitivity of the portfolio's value to changes in interest rates. The longer the portfolio duration, the more sensitive it is to interest rate changes.
The formula used to calculate portfolio duration takes into account the duration of each bond and the proportion of the total value they represent. In the given exercise, the portfolio duration is 7.1 years, meaning if interest rates increase by 1%, the portfolio's value would drop by approximately 7.1%.
This concept is essential because it allows managers to predict how changes in interest rates will affect the portfolio, helping them make informed decisions about hedging strategies to manage interest rate risk.
Futures Contracts
Futures contracts are standardized agreements to buy or sell an asset, like Treasury bonds, at a predetermined price on a specified future date. These contracts are used by investors to hedge against risks, including interest rate risk. In bond portfolio management, futures contracts play a critical role in protecting the portfolio's value from rate changes.
In our example, the manager uses December Treasury bond futures to hedge the portfolio. The futures price is converted from the quoted fraction to a decimal to calculate the number of contracts needed for effective hedging. This conversion ensures that the portfolio’s interest rate exposure is appropriately matched with the futures contracts.
Futures provide a way to lock in prices and offset potential losses from adverse market movements, thus stabilizing the portfolio's value over time.
Hedging Strategies
Hedging strategies are techniques used by investors to reduce or eliminate the risk of adverse price movements in assets. In bond portfolio management, hedging against interest rate changes is a common strategy to protect investments.
One effective hedging strategy is to use duration matching, where the portfolio's duration is matched with that of the hedging instrument, such as futures contracts. This involves calculating the number of futures contracts needed to balance the interest rate exposure of the bond portfolio.
The goal is to ensure that any loss in the bond portfolio due to rising interest rates is offset by gains in the futures positions. By carefully selecting and executing these strategies, portfolio managers can maintain the value and performance of the portfolio even when interest rates fluctuate.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Assume that a bank can borrow or lend money at the same interest rate in the LIBOR market. The 90 -day rate is \(10 \%\) per annum, and the 180 -day rate is \(10.2 \%\) per annum, both expressed with continuous compounding and an actual/actual day count. The Eurodollar futures price for a contract maturing in 90 days is quoted as \(89.5 .\) What arbitrage opportunities are open to the bank?

A five-year bond with a yield of \(11 \%\) (continuously compounded) pays an \(8 \%\) coupon at the end of each year. a. What is the bond's price? b. What is the bond's duration? c. Use the duration to calculate the effect on the bond's price of a \(0.2 \%\) decrease in its yield. d. Recalculate the bond's price on the basis of a \(10.8 \%\) per annum yield and verify that the result is in agreement with your answer to (c).

Portfolio A consists of a one-year zero-coupon bond with a face value of 2,000 and a 10-year zero-coupon bond with a face value of 6,000. Portfolio \(B\) consists of a 5.95 -year zero-coupon bond with a face value of \(\$ 5,000\). The current yield on all bonds is 10% per annum. a. Show that both portfolios have the same duration. b. Show that the percentage changes in the values of the two portfolios for a 0.1 % per annum increase in yields are the same. c. What are the percentage changes in the values of the two portfolios for a 5 % per annum increase in yields?

An investor is looking for arbitrage opportunities in the Treasury bond futures market. What complications are created by the fact that the party with a short position can choose to deliver any bond with a maturity of over 15 years?

What is the purpose of the convexity adjustment made to Eurodollar futures rates? Why is the convexity adjustment necessary?

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