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Investors require a 15 percent rate of return on Levine Company's stock (that is, \(r_{s}=15 \%\) ). a. What is its value if the previous dividend was \(\mathrm{D}_{0}=\$ 2\) and investors expect dividends to grow at a constant annual rate of \((1)-5\) percent, (2) 0 percent, (3) 5 percent, or (4) 10 percent? b. Using data from part a, what would the Gordon (constant growth) model value be if the required rate of return were 15 percent and the expected growth rate were (1) 15 percent or (2) 20 percent? Are these reasonable results? Explain. c. Is it reasonable to think that a constant growth stock could have \(g>r_{s}\) ?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Stock values vary with growth rates: reasonable when growth < return; infinite or negative when growth ≥ return, which is not sustainable.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Dividend Discount Model

The value of a stock in terms of future dividends is given by the formula for a perpetuity with growth, known as Gordon's Growth Model: \( P_0 = \frac{D_1}{r_s - g} \). Here, \(D_1\) is the expected dividend for the next year, \(r_s\) is the required rate of return, and \(g\) is the growth rate. \(D_1\) is calculated as \(D_0(1+g)\) where \(D_0\) is the most recent dividend.
02

Part A: Calculating Stock Value with Different Growth Rates

Given \(D_0 = 2\) and \(r_s = 0.15\):1. If \(g = -0.05\), \(D_1 = 2 \times (1 - 0.05) = 1.90\), and \(P_0 = \frac{1.90}{0.15 + 0.05} = 9.50\).2. If \(g = 0.00\), \(D_1 = 2\), and \(P_0 = \frac{2}{0.15 - 0} = 13.33\).3. If \(g = 0.05\), \(D_1 = 2.10\), and \(P_0 = \frac{2.10}{0.15 - 0.05} = 21.00\).4. If \(g = 0.10\), \(D_1 = 2.20\), and \(P_0 = \frac{2.20}{0.15 - 0.10} = 44.00\).
03

Part B: Evaluation with High Growth Scenarios

1. For \(g = 0.15\), \(P_0 = \frac{2 \times 1.15}{0.15 - 0.15}\) leads to division by zero, making the stock price theoretically infinite.2. For \(g = 0.20\), \(P_0 = \frac{2 \times 1.20}{0.15 - 0.20}\). Here \(r_s < g\), leading to a non-sensible result (negative or infinite price). These results demonstrate the model limitations when \(g \geq r_s\).
04

Part C: Reasonableness of g > r_s

Having \(g > r_s\) is not reasonable for constant growth since it implies dividends grow faster than investors' required returns, leading to a non-converging stock price scenario (infinite value or undefined). This violates the assumptions of the model, which require a stable and sustainable growth rate lower than the required return.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Gordon Growth Model
The Gordon Growth Model is a popular method used in finance to determine the intrinsic value of a stock. This model, also known as the Dividend Discount Model, assumes that dividends will continue to grow at a constant rate indefinitely. It simplifies the valuation process by focusing on expected future dividends and the growth rate of those dividends. The formula used is:
  • \( P_0 = \frac{D_1}{r_s - g} \)
Where \( P_0 \) is the price of the stock, \( D_1 \) is the expected dividend in the next year, \( r_s \) is the required rate of return, and \( g \) is the growth rate of the dividends. When applying this model, it is crucial that the growth rate \( g \) is less than the required return \( r_s \) to provide a meaningful result.
The Gordon Growth Model is especially useful for companies that pay regular and steady dividends, such as utility or blue-chip stocks. Investors use this model to estimate whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued based on the potential future cash flows (dividends) it will generate.
Constant Growth Rate
In the context of the Gordon Growth Model, the constant growth rate represents the expected increase in dividends per year. This growth rate is crucial because it affects the valuation of the stock directly. If dividends are expected to grow consistently, they reflect the potential earnings and profitability growth of a company.
The assumption of a constant growth rate simplifies stock valuation but does require realistic expectations. Generally, it should be sustainable and lower than the required rate of return to produce sensible results. For example, in practice:
  • A constant growth rate of 3-5% might be feasible for stable, established companies.
  • A rate higher than the required return is not realistic as it implies dividends grow perpetually faster than investors demand returns.
Investors must adjust their assumptions if a company's growth expectations change, making the constant growth model an adaptable yet precise tool for stock valuation.
Stock Valuation
Stock valuation is the process of determining the worth of a stock based on expected future dividends flowing to the investor. The Gordon Growth Model is a common approach for this, especially for firms with stable dividends.
In stock valuation, understanding the current dividend, future dividends, growth rate, and required rate of return is essential. Here's how you would typically use this model:
  • Calculate the expected dividend for the next year: \( D_1 = D_0(1+g) \).
  • Determine the required rate of return \( r_s \).
  • Substitute these into the Gordon model to find \( P_0 \).
For example, if a stock with a previous dividend (\( D_0 \)) of $2 is expected to grow by 5% each year and investors require a 15% return, the valuation will differ significantly compared to a scenario where dividends grow by 10%. Different growth rates show how sensitive stock valuation is to assumptions about future growth. This approach aids investors in making informed decisions about buying or selling stocks based on intrinsic value.
Required Rate of Return
The required rate of return represents the minimum annual percentage return investors expect to earn from an investment, compensating for its risk level. In stock valuation, it's crucial because it serves as a benchmark for evaluating whether a stock is worth purchasing.
In the Gordon Growth Model, the required rate of return \( r_s \) forms a critical component of the calculation. It is what investors demand to hold a stock given its risk profile. The required return can vary based on factors such as:
  • Market conditions.
  • Investor risk tolerance.
  • Company-specific risk factors.
It must exceed the dividend growth rate \( g \) to ensure that the Gordon Growth Model provides a finite and rational stock price. If \( g \) were higher, it would imply that dividends grow indefinitely at a faster rate than investors expect to recover as returns, which is impractical and unrealistic in the real world. Thus, precise estimation of the required rate of return is key to reliable stock valuation.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Barrett Industries invests a lot of money in \(\mathrm{R\&D}\), and as a result it retains and reinvests all of its earnings. In other words, Barrett does not pay any dividends, and it has no plans to pay dividends in the near future. A major pension fund is interested in purchasing Barrett's stock. The pension fund manager has estimated Barrett's free cash flows for the next 4 years as follows: \$3 million, \$6 million, \$10 million, and \(\$ 15\) million. After the 4 th year, free cash flow is projected to grow at a constant 7 percent. Barrett's WACC is 12 percent, its debt and preferred stock total to \$60 million, and it has 10 million shares of common stock outstanding. a. What is the present value of the free cash flows projected during the next 4 years? b. What is the firm's terminal value? c. What is the firm's total value today? d. What is an estimate of Barrett's price per share?

Robert Balik and Carol Kiefer are senior vice presidents of the Mutual of Chicago Insurance Company. They are co-directors of the company's pension fund management division, with Balik having responsibility for fixed income securities (primarily bonds) and Kiefer being responsible for equity investments. A major new client, the California League of Cities, has requested that Mutual of Chicago present an investment seminar to the mayors of the represented cities, and Balik and Kiefer, who will make the actual presentation, have asked you to help them. To illustrate the common stock valuation process, Balik and Kiefer have asked you to analyze the Bon Temps Company, an employment agency that supplies word-processor operators and computer programmers to businesses with temporarily heavy workloads. You are to answer the following questions: a. Describe briefly the legal rights and privileges of common stockholders. b. (1) Write out a formula that can be used to value any stock, regardless of its dividend pattern. (2) What is a constant growth stock? How are constant growth stocks valued? (3) What are the implications if a company forecasts a constant \(g\) that exceeds its \(r_{s} ?\) Will many stocks have expected \(g > r_{s}\) in the short run (that is, for the next few years)? In the long run (that is, forever)? c. Assume that Bon Temps has a beta coefficient of \(1.2,\) that the risk-free rate (the yield on T-bonds) is 7 percent, and that the required rate of return on the market is 12 percent. What is Bon Temps' required rate of return? d. Assume that Bon Temps is a constant growth company whose last dividend (D), which was paid yesterday) was \(\$ 2.00\) and whose dividend is expected to grow indefinitely at a 6 percent rate. (1) What is the firm's expected dividend stream over the next 3 years? (2) What is its current stock price? (3) What is the stock's expected value 1 year from now? (4) What are the expected dividend yield, capital gains yield, and total return during the first year? e. Now assume that the stock is currently selling at \(\$ 30.29\). What is its expected rate of return? f. What would the stock price be if its dividends were expected to have zero growth? g. Now assume that Bon Temps is expected to experience nonconstant growth of 30 percent for the next 3 years, then to return to its long-run constant growth rate of 6 percent. What is the stock's value under these conditions? What are its expected dividend and capital gains yields in Year 1? Year 4? h. Suppose Bon Temps is expected to experience zero growth during the first 3 years and then to resume its steady-state growth of 6 percent in the fourth year. What would its value be then? What would its expected dividend and capital gains yields be in Year \(1 ?\) In Year \(4 ?\) i. Finally, assume that Bon Temps' earnings and dividends are expected to decline at a constant rate of 6 percent per year, that is, \(g=-6 \%\). Why would anyone be willing to buy such a stock, and at what price should it sell? What would be its dividend and capital gains yields in each year? j. Suppose Bon Temps embarked on an aggressive expansion that requires additional capital. Management decided to finance the expansion by borrowing \(\$ 40\) million and by halting dividend payments to increase retained earnings. Its WACC is now 10 percent, and the projected free cash flows for the next 3 years are \(-\$ 5\) million, \(\$ 10\) million, and \(\$ 20\) million. After Year \(3,\) free cash flow is projected to grow at a constant 6 percent. What is Bon Temps' total value? If it has 10 million shares of stock and \(\$ 40\) million of total debt, what is the price per share? k. For Bon Temps' stock to be in equilibrium, what relationship must exist between its estimated intrinsic value and its current stock price and between its expected and required rates of return? Are the equilibrium intrinsic value and expected rate of return the values that management estimates or values as estimated by some other entity? Explain. l. If equilibrium does not exist, how will it be established? m. Suppose Bon Temps decided to issue preferred stock that would pay an annual dividend of \(\$ 5,\) and the issue price was \(\$ 50\) per share. What would the expected return be on this stock? Would the expected rate of return be the same if the preferred was a perpetual issue or if it had a 20 -year maturity?

Assume that it is now January \(1,2006 .\) Wayne-Martin Electric Inc. (WME) has just developed a solar panel capable of generating 200 percent more electricity than any solar panel currently on the market. As a result, WME is expected to experience a 15 percent annual growth rate for the next 5 years. By the end of 5 years, other firms will have developed comparable technology, and WME's growth rate will slow to 5 percent per year indefinitely. Stockholders require a return of 12 percent on WME's stock. The most recent annual dividend (D), which was paid yesterday, was \(\$ 1.75\) per share. a. Calculate WME's expected dividends for \(2006,2007,2008,2009,\) and 2010 b. Calculate the value of the stock today, \(\hat{P}_{0}\). Proceed by finding the present value of the dividends expected at the end of \(2006,2007,2008,2009,\) and 2010 plus the present value of the stock price that should exist at the end of 2010 . The year-end 2010 stock price can be found by using the constant growth equation. Notice that to find the December 31,2010 , price, you must use the dividend expected in 2011 , which is 5 percent greater than the 2010 dividend. c. Calculate the expected dividend yield, \(D_{1} / P_{0}\), capital gains yield, and total return (dividend yield plus capital gains yield) expected for 2006 . (Assume that \(\hat{P}_{0}=P_{0 \prime}\) and recognize that the capital gains yield is equal to the total return minus the dividend yield.) Then calculate these same three yields for 2011 d. How might an investor's tax situation affect his or her decision to purchase stocks of companies in the early stages of their lives, when they are growing rapidly, versus stocks of older, more mature firms? When does WME's stock become "mature" for purposes of this question? e. Suppose your boss tells you she believes that WME's annual growth rate will be only 12 percent during the next 5 years and that the firm's long-run growth rate will be only 4 percent. Without doing any calculations, what general effect would these growth-rate changes have on the price of WME's stock? f. Suppose your boss also tells you that she regards WME as being quite risky and that she believes the required rate of return should be 14 percent, not 12 percent. Without doing any calculations, how would the higher required rate of return affect the price of the stock, the capital gains yield, and the dividend yield? Again, assume that the long-run growth rate is 4 percent.

Bruner Aeronautics has perpetual preferred stock outstanding with a par value of \(\$ 100 .\) The stock pays a quarterly dividend of \(\$ 2,\) and its current price is \(\$ 80 .\) a. What is its nominal annual rate of return? b. What is its effective annual rate of return?

C's beta coefficient is \(\mathrm{b}_{\mathrm{C}}=0.4,\) while Stock D's is \(\mathrm{b}_{\mathrm{D}}=-0.5 .\) (Stock \(\mathrm{D}^{\prime}\) s beta is negative, indicating that its return rises when returns on most other stocks fall. There are very few negative beta stocks, although collection agency stocks are sometimes cited as an example.) a. If the risk-free rate is 7 percent and the expected rate of return on an average stock is 11 percent, what are the required rates of return on Stocks \(C\) and \(D ?\) b. For Stock \(C\), suppose the current price, \(P_{0}\), is \(\$ 25\); the next expected dividend, \(D_{1}\), is \(\$ 1.50 ;\) and the stock's expected constant growth rate is 4 percent. Is the stock in equilibrium? Explain, and describe what would happen if the stock is not in equilibrium.

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