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Evaluating lump sums and annuities Crissie just won the lottery, and she must choose between three award options. She can elect to receive a lump sum today of \(\$ 61\) million, to receive 10 end-of-year payments of \(\$ 9.5\) million, or 30 end-of-year payments of \(\$ 5.5\) million. a. If she thinks she can earn 7 percent annually, which should she choose? b. If she expects to earn 8 percent annually, which is the best choice? c. If she expects to earn 9 percent annually, which would you recommend? d. Explain how interest rates influence the optimal choice.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Crissie should choose the lump sum at 7% and 8%, but the 10-year annuity at 9%. Interest rates increase the present value of nearer-term payments.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Present Value

To evaluate the different payment options, we need to calculate the present value (PV) of each option, which is a way to understand how much future cash flows are worth today. This involves using a discount rate that reflects the interest rate Crissie expects to earn.
02

Present Value Formula for Annuities

The present value of an annuity can be calculated with the formula: \( PV = C \times \left(1 - (1 + r)^{-n}\right) / r \) where \( C \) is the annual payment, \( r \) is the discount rate (interest rate), and \( n \) is the number of payments.
03

Calculate PV for 10 Annual Payments at 7%

For 10 end-of-year payments of \( \$9.5 \) million at 7%, the present value is: \( PV = 9.5 \times \left(1 - (1 + 0.07)^{-10}\right) / 0.07 \). Calculate this to find the PV.
04

Calculate PV for 30 Annual Payments at 7%

For 30 end-of-year payments of \( \$5.5 \) million at 7%, the present value is: \( PV = 5.5 \times \left(1 - (1 + 0.07)^{-30}\right) / 0.07 \). Calculate this to find the PV.
05

Compare Options at 7%

Compare the lump sum of \( \$61 \) million to the present values of the 10 and 30 annual payments calculated at 7%. Choose the option with the highest present value.
06

Repeat Steps 3-5 for 8%

Perform the same calculations as in steps 3 to 5 but using an interest rate of 8%. Calculate the present value of both annuities and compare with the lump sum option.
07

Repeat Steps 3-5 for 9%

Repeat the calculations for an interest rate of 9%. Again, determine the present values of each annuity option and compare them to the lump sum.
08

Analyze Interest Rate Impact

Interest rates determine the discount factor applied to future cash flows. Higher rates decrease the present value of future payments, making the lump sum more attractive. Lower rates increase the relative value of future payments, potentially making annuities more appealing.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Annuity
An annuity is a series of equal payments made at regular intervals over a period of time. In Crissie's case, the annuity options are the 10-year and 30-year end-of-year payments. Understanding annuities is crucial because they allow individuals to receive a steady stream of income over time. This can be particularly beneficial for budgeting and managing long-term financial goals.
  • An annuity payment is fixed and predictable, making it easier to plan for future expenses.
  • In present value terms, calculating the worth of an annuity involves assessing these equal payments through a discount rate.
The formula for calculating the present value of an annuity helps you understand what these future payments are worth today. It factors in the number of payments, the discount rate, and the amount of each payment. This is important because the actual worth of the annuity depends significantly on the interest rate expected over time.
Discount Rate
The discount rate in present value calculations refers to the interest rate used to discount future cash flows back to their present value. It's vital because it reflects the rate of return that could be earned if the money was invested elsewhere.
  • A higher discount rate means future cash flows are worth less today, reducing their present value.
  • A lower discount rate increases the present value of future cash flows.
Crissie uses expected annual rates of 7%, 8%, and 9% as her discount rates for evaluating her options. Each rate reflects a different expected return if the funds were invested elsewhere, influencing the attractiveness of each option based on their present values.
Lump Sum Payment
A lump sum payment is a one-time payment received today, in contrast to receiving a series of annuity payments over several years. Crissie's lump sum option is \(\$61\) million. This option immediately provides her with a large amount of money, which she could invest to potentially earn a return.
Choosing a lump sum payment can be beneficial if the expected rate of return from investments is high because it can potentially grow more than the cumulative amount of annuity payments. However, understanding the present value of future annuity payments versus the immediate value of a lump sum is key to making an informed decision.
Interest Rate Impact
Interest rates have a significant impact on present value calculations and decision-making for financial options like the ones Crissie faces.
  • If interest rates are high, future payments are heavily discounted, reducing their present value and making the immediate lump sum more appealing.
  • Conversely, if interest rates are low, longer-term annuity payments may have more value than the lump sum, due to their higher present value.
By changing her expected interest rates from 7% to 9%, Crissie can see how different rates affect the attractiveness of each option. Higher rates tend to favor taking the lump sum now, while lower rates might make annuities more desirable. This illustrates how critical it is to consider the impact of current and expected interest rates when making such financial decisions.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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