Scenario analysis Your firm, Agrico Products, is considering a tractor that
would have a net cost of \(\$ 36,000,\) would increase pre-tax operating cash
flows before taking account of depreciation by \(\$ 12,000\) per year, and would
be depreciated on a straight-line basis to zero over 5 years at the rate of
\(\$ 7,200\) per year, beginning the first year. (Thus annual cash flows would
be \(\$ 12,000,\) before taxes, plus the tax savings that result from \(\$ 7,200\)
of depreciation.) The managers are having a heated debate about whether the
tractor would actually last 5 years. The controller insists that she knows of
tractors that have lasted only 4 years. The treasurer agrees with the
controller, but he argues that most tractors actually do give 5 years of
service. The service manager then states that some actually last for as long
as 8 years. Given this discussion, the CFO asks you to prepare a scenario
analysis to determine the importance of the tractor's life on the NPV. Use a
40 percent marginal federal-plusstate tax rate, a zero salvage value, and a
WACC of 10 percent. Assuming each of the indicated lives has the same
probability of occurring (probability \(=1 / 3\) ), what is the tractor's
expected NPV? (Hint: Here straight-line depreciation is based on the MACRS
class life of the tractor and is not affected by the actual life. Also, ignore
the half-year convention for this problem.)