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Suppose Chance Chemical Company's management conducts a study and concludes that if Chance expanded its consumer products division (which is less risky than its primary business, industrial chemicals), the firm's beta would decline from 1.2 to \(0.9 .\) However, consumer products have a somewhat lower profit margin, and this would cause Chance's constant growth rate in earnings and dividends to fall from 7 to 5 percent. a. Should management make the change? Assume the following: \(k_{M}=12 \% ; k_{R F}=9 \%\) \(\mathrm{D}_{0}=\$ 2.00\) b. Assume all the facts as given above except the change in the beta coefficient. How low would the beta have to fall to cause the expansion to be a good one? (Hint: Set \(\hat{\mathrm{P}}_{0}\) under the new policy equal to \(\hat{\mathrm{P}}_{0}\) under the old one, and find the new beta that will produce this equality.)

Short Answer

Expert verified
Management should not make the change; beta needs to decrease to 0.67 to justify the expansion.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate Required Rate of Return

First, we'll calculate the required rate of return using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM):\[ k = k_{RF} + \beta(k_M - k_{RF}) \]Given \(k_M = 12\%\), \(k_{RF} = 9\%\), and the initial \(\beta = 1.2\), we have:\[ k_{current} = 9\% + 1.2(12\% - 9\%) = 12.6\% \]
02

Calculate Initial Stock Price

Using the Gordon Growth Model, where \(D_0 = 2.00\), growth rate \(g = 7\%\), and discount rate \(k = 12.6\%\), the stock price is:\[ \hat{P}_{0\, current} = \frac{D_0(1+g)}{k_{current} - g} = \frac{2.00 \times 1.07}{0.126 - 0.07} = \frac{2.14}{0.056} = 38.21 \]
03

Calculate New Required Rate of Return

Now, calculate the new required rate of return with \(\beta = 0.9\):\[ k_{new} = 9\% + 0.9(12\% - 9\%) = 11.7\% \]
04

Calculate New Stock Price

Using the new growth rate \(g = 5\%\) and \(k_{new} = 11.7\%\):\[ \hat{P}_{0\, new} = \frac{2.00 \times 1.05}{0.117 - 0.05} = \frac{2.10}{0.067} = 31.34 \]
05

Compare Stock Prices and Decision

Compare \(\hat{P}_{0\, new} = 31.34\) to \(\hat{P}_{0\, current} = 38.21\). Since the new price is lower, the change is not favorable.
06

Calculate Required Beta for Equivalence

To find the beta that makes the two stock prices equal:Set \(\hat{P}_{0\, new} = \hat{P}_{0\, current} = 38.21\) and solve for \(\beta'\):\[ 38.21 = \frac{2.10}{k_{new}' - 0.05} \]Rearranging gives:\[ k_{new}' = \frac{2.10}{38.21} + 0.05 = 0.105 + 0.05 = 11\% \]Substitute back into CAPM to find new \(\beta'\):\[ k_{new}' = 9\% + \beta'(3\%) \Rightarrow 11\% = 9\% + \beta'(3\%) \Rightarrow \beta' = \frac{2\%}{3\%} = 0.67 \]
07

Final Decision

Beta would need to decrease to 0.67 for the expansion to maintain the stock price, which is substantially lower than 0.9.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Beta Coefficient
The beta coefficient is a measure of a stock's volatility in relation to the overall market. It indicates the risk associated with a particular stock compared to a benchmark, typically the market index. A beta of 1 means the stock's price tends to move with the market. A beta greater than 1 indicates higher volatility, whereas a beta less than 1 shows less volatility than the market.

In the case of Chance Chemical Company, their initial beta is 1.2, suggesting the stock is more volatile than the market, implying a higher risk. If they expand their consumer products division, the beta is expected to drop to 0.9, indicating the stock will become less volatile and hence less risky. Lower risk might appeal to some investors looking for stability, but it might also mean potentially lower returns. Therefore, understanding beta is crucial in assessing risk versus return.
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
CAPM stands for Capital Asset Pricing Model, which is used to determine the expected return on an investment and assess its risk. It helps investors decide whether a stock is a good investment compared to its risk level. The formula is:\[ k = k_{RF} + \beta(k_M - k_{RF}) \]
  • \( k \) = required rate of return.
  • \( k_{RF} \) = risk-free rate of return.
  • \( k_M \) = expected market return.
  • \( \beta \) = beta coefficient.
For Chance Chemical, we used CAPM to calculate both the current and new required rates of return based on the changes in beta (from 1.2 to 0.9). The initial required rate was calculated at 12.6%, while the new rate was 11.7%. A decrease in beta lowered the expected return, reflecting the reduced risk of the investment.
Gordon Growth Model
The Gordon Growth Model helps in evaluating a stock's price based on the assumption that dividends grow at a constant rate. This model is especially useful for stable companies with predictable dividend growth. It is represented by:\[ \hat{P}_{0} = \frac{D_0(1+g)}{k - g} \]
  • \( \hat{P}_{0} \) = current stock price estimation.
  • \( D_0 \) = most recent dividend payment.
  • \( g \) = growth rate of dividends.
  • \( k \) = discount rate (required rate of return).
In the scenario provided, this model helped calculate Chance Chemical's stock prices both before and after the proposed expansion, based on changes in growth rate and discount rate. The change from a 7% to a 5% growth rate significantly decreased the estimated stock price.
Required Rate of Return
The required rate of return is the minimum percentage return an investor expects to earn from an investment, considering its risk. It is influenced by the risk-free rate, the beta, and the market risk premium.

In corporate decisions, like those faced by Chance Chemical, this rate helps determine whether an investment or strategic change is financially viable. Initially, the required rate was 12.6% due to a higher beta and perceived risk. Reducing the beta to 0.9 altered it to 11.7%, reflecting the reduced risk of the proposed expansion. The required rate thus indicates whether an investment offers adequate compensation for its risk.
Stock Price Valuation
Stock price valuation involves estimating the current intrinsic value of a company’s shares. Investors use various models and metrics to determine whether a stock is under or over-valued.

Using the Gordon Growth Model, as illustrated in Chance Chemical's example, helps project the stock's future value. The change in stock price from $38.21 to $31.34 highlighted the potential downside of reducing the company’s growth rate, despite the lowered beta and implied risk. Understanding these shifts in valuation allows investors to make informed decisions about buying, holding, or selling their shares.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Assume that the average firm in your company's industry is expected to grow at a constant rate of 6 percent and its dividend yield is 7 percent. Your company is about as risky as the average firm in the industry, but it has just successfully completed some \(\mathrm{R} \& \mathrm{D}\) work that leads you to expect that its earnings and dividends will grow at a rate of 50 percent \(\left[\mathrm{D}_{1}=\mathrm{D}_{0}(1+\mathrm{g})=\mathrm{D}_{0}(1.50)\right]\) this year and 25 percent the following year, after which growth should match the 6 percent industry average rate. The last dividend paid \(\left(\mathrm{D}_{0}\right)\) was \(\$ 1.00 .\) What is the value per share of your firm's stock?

You buy a share of The Ludwig Corporation stock for \(\$ 21.40 .\) You expect it to pay dividends of \(\$ 1.07, \$ 1.1449,\) and \(\$ 1.2250\) in Years \(1,2,\) and \(3,\) respectively, and you expect to sell it at a price of \(\$ 26.22\) at the end of 3 years. a. Calculate the growth rate in dividends. b. Calculate the expected dividend yield. c. Assuming that the calculated growth rate is expected to continue, you can add the dividend yield to the expected growth rate to obtain the expected total rate of return. What is this stock's expected total rate of return?

It is now January \(1,2002 .\) Wayne-Martin Electric Inc. (WME) has just developed a solar panel capable of generating 200 percent more electricity than any solar panel currently on the market. As a result, WME is expected to experience a 15 percent annual growth rate for the next 5 years. By the end of 5 years, other firms will have developed comparable technology, and WME's growth rate will slow to 5 percent per year indefinitely. Stockholders require a return of 12 percent on WME's stock. The most recent annual dividend (D) , which was paid yesterday, was \(\$ 1.75\) per share. a. Calculate WME's expected dividends for \(2002,2003,2004,2005,\) and 2006 b. Calculate the value of the stock today, \(\hat{\mathrm{P}}_{0}\). Proceed by finding the present value of the dividends expected at the end of \(2002,2003,2004,2005,\) and 2006 plus the present value of the stock price that should exist at the end of \(2006 .\) The year-end 2006 stock price can be found by using the constant growth equation. Notice that to find the December \(31,2006,\) price, you use the dividend expected in \(2007,\) which is 5 percent greater than the 2006 dividend. c. Calculate the expected dividend yield, \(D_{1} / P_{0}\), the capital gains yield expected in 2002 , and the expected total return (dividend yield plus capital gains yield) for 2002 . (Assume that \(\mathrm{P}_{0}=\mathrm{P}_{0},\) and recognize that the capital gains yield is equal to the total return minus the dividend yield.) Also calculate these same three yields for 2007 . d. How might an investor's tax situation affect his or her decision to purchase stocks of companies in the early stages of their lives, when they are growing rapidly, versus stocks of older, more mature firms? When does WME's stock become "mature" in this example? e. Suppose your boss tells you she believes that WME's annual growth rate will be only 12 percent during the next 5 years and that the firm's normal growth rate will be only 4 percent. Without doing any calculations, what general effect would these growthrate changes have on the price of WME's stock? f. Suppose your boss also tells you that she regards WME as being quite risky and that she believes the required rate of return should be 14 percent, not 12 percent. Again, without doing any calculations, how would the higher required rate of return affect the price of the stock, its capital gains yield, and its dividend yield? Again, assume that the firm's normal growth rate will be 4 percent.

Thomas Brothers is expected to pay a \(\$ 0.50\) per share dividend at the end of the year (i.e., \(D_{1}=\$ 0.50\) ). The dividend is expected to grow at a constant rate of 7 percent a year. The required rate of return on the stock, \(\mathrm{k}_{\mathrm{s}}\), is 15 percent. What is the value per share of the company's stock?

What will be the nominal rate of return on a preferred stock with a \(\$ 100\) par value, a stated dividend of 8 percent of par, and a current market price of \((\mathrm{a}) \$ 60,(\mathrm{b}) \$ 80,(\mathrm{c})\) \(\$ 100,\) and \((d) \$ 140 ?\)

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