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Stocks \(X\) and \(Y\) have the following probability distributions of expected future returns: $$\begin{array}{ccc} \text { PROBABILITY } & \mathbf{X} & \mathbf{Y} \\ \hline 0.1 & (10 \%) & (35 \%) \\ 0.2 & 2 & 0 \\ 0.4 & 12 & 20 \\ 0.2 & 20 & 25 \\ 0.1 & 38 & 45 \end{array}$$ a. Calculate the expected rate of return, \(\hat{\mathrm{k}},\) for Stock \(\mathrm{Y}\). ( \(\hat{\mathrm{k}}_{\mathrm{X}}=12 \%\).) b. Calculate the standard deviation of expected returns for Stock X. (That for Stock \(\mathrm{Y}\) is 20.35 percent.) Now calculate the coefficient of variation for Stock \(\mathrm{Y}\). Is it possible that most investors might regard Stock \(Y\) as being less risky than Stock \(X\) ? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The expected return for Stock Y is 21%. Stock Y has a lower coefficient of variation (0.969) than Stock X (2.874), suggesting it is less risky relative to its return.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate Expected Return for Stock Y

To find the expected return for Stock Y, multiply each possible return by its corresponding probability and then sum up these products. The formula is given by:\[ \hat{k_Y} = \sum{(Probability \times Return)} \]Compute each part:- \(0.1 \times 0.35 = 0.035\)- \(0.2 \times 0 = 0\)- \(0.4 \times 0.20 = 0.08\)- \(0.2 \times 0.25 = 0.05\)- \(0.1 \times 0.45 = 0.045\)Add these results:\[ \hat{k_Y} = 0.035 + 0 + 0.08 + 0.05 + 0.045 = 0.21 \]Thus, the expected return for Stock Y is 21%.
02

Calculate the Variance for Stock X

First, recalculate each squared deviation from the expected return, for each return, multiply by its probability, and sum these products. This is used to find the variance, \( \sigma^2_X \), where \( \hat{k_X} = 0.12 \):- \((0.1 \times (-0.10 - 0.12)^2) = 0.0484\)- \((0.2 \times (0.02 - 0.12)^2) = 0.002\)- \((0.4 \times (0.12 - 0.12)^2) = 0\)- \((0.2 \times (0.20 - 0.12)^2) = 0.00128\)- \((0.1 \times (0.38 - 0.12)^2) = 0.06724\)Add these results to get the variance:\[ \sigma^2_X = 0.0484 + 0.002 + 0 + 0.00128 + 0.06724 = 0.11892 \]
03

Calculate Standard Deviation for Stock X

The standard deviation, \( \sigma_X \), is the square root of the variance. Thus:\[ \sigma_X = \sqrt{0.11892} = 0.3449 \]Converted to percentage, the standard deviation is 34.49%.
04

Calculate Coefficient of Variation for Stock Y

The coefficient of variation (CV) is calculated using the formula:\[ CV_Y = \frac{\sigma_Y}{\hat{k_Y}} \]Given \( \sigma_Y = 0.2035 \) and \( \hat{k_Y} = 0.21 \):\[ CV_Y = \frac{0.2035}{0.21} \approx 0.969 \]This implies the coefficient of variation for Stock Y is approximately 0.969 (or 96.9%).
05

Compare Riskiness of Stocks X and Y

Generally, a lower CV suggests less relative risk per unit of return. For stocks X and Y:- \(CV_Y = 0.969\)- \(CV_X = \frac{\sigma_X}{\hat{k_X}} = \frac{0.3449}{0.12} = 2.874\)Since CV_Y is much smaller than CV_X, Stock Y is considered to have lower risk relative to its expected return compared to Stock X, supporting the idea that Stock Y might be perceived as less risky.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Expected Return Calculation
The expected return is a crucial metric in financial risk assessment. It represents the average return that an investor anticipates from an investment over a future period. To calculate it, use the formula: \( \hat{k}_Y = \sum{(Probability \times Return)} \). This involves multiplying each possible return with its probability of occurring, then summing these products.
For example, in Stock Y, each potential return is weighted by its probability to get the expected value:
  • For a 10% probability of 35% return, calculate 0.1 \( \times \) 0.35.
  • For a 20% probability of 0% return, compute 0.2 \( \times \) 0.
  • Continue similarly for other returns and probabilities.
The sum of these is 0.21, or 21%, which shows the expected annual return for Stock Y. Thus, expected return helps investors gauge the profit potential of their investments.
Standard Deviation in Finance
Standard deviation in finance measures the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of values. It reveals how much returns deviate from the expected return. A higher standard deviation signifies a higher risk in investments, as the returns are more spread out.
To determine the standard deviation for Stock X, first calculate the variance. This involves calculating each return's deviation from the mean, squaring it, multiplying by its probability, and summing up these values. The variance for Stock X is 0.11892. Taking the square root of variance gives the standard deviation, which is 0.3449 or 34.49% when expressed in percentage form.
This number helps investors understand the volatility, offering a clearer view of the risks associated with the stock's returns. If an investment has a high standard deviation, it implies more unpredictable returns, hence greater risk.
Coefficient of Variation Analysis
The coefficient of variation (CV) is a standardized measure of risk per unit of return, utilized when comparing the riskiness of investments with different expected returns. It is computed using the formula: \( CV_Y = \frac{\sigma_Y}{\hat{k}_Y} \), where \( \sigma_Y \) is the standard deviation and \( \hat{k}_Y \) is the expected return.
For Stock Y, the CV is calculated as \( \frac{0.2035}{0.21} \), yielding approximately 0.969, or 96.9%. This measure gives the proportion of the standard deviation relative to the expected return. A lower CV typically indicates a more favorable risk-return trade-off.
When compared with Stock X, Stock Y has a significantly lower CV, suggesting it has less risk in relation to its expected returns. For investors, this means that Stock Y, with its lower CV, might be perceived as less risky when considering how much return they can expect for each unit of risk taken.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Suppose you hold a diversified portfolio consisting of a \(\$ 7,500\) investment in each of 20 different common stocks. The portfolio beta is equal to \(1.12 .\) Now, suppose you have decided to sell one of the stocks in your portfolio with a beta equal to 1.0 for \(\$ 7,500\) and to use these proceeds to buy another stock for your portfolio. Assume the new stock's beta is equal to \(1.75 .\) Calculate your portfolio's new beta.

You have a \(\$ 2\) million portfolio consisting of a \(\$ 100,000\) investment in each of 20 different stocks. The portfolio has a beta equal to \(1.1 .\) You are considering selling \(\$ 100,000\) worth of one stock that has a beta equal to 0.9 and using the proceeds to purchase another stock that has a beta equal to \(1.4 .\) What will be the new beta of your portfolio following this transaction?

A stock's expected return has the following distribution: $$\begin{array}{lcc} \begin{array}{l} \text { DEMAND FOR THE } \\ \text { COMPANY'S PRODUCTS } \end{array} & \begin{array}{c} \text { PROBABILITY OF THIS } \\ \text { DEMAND OCCURRING } \end{array} & \begin{array}{c} \text { RATE OF RETURN } \\ \text { IF THIS DEMAND } \\ \text { OCCURS } \end{array} \\ \hline \text { Weak } & 0.1 & (50 \%) \\ \text { Below average } & 0.2 & (5) \\ \text { Average } & 0.4 & 16 \\ \text { Above average } & 0.2 & 25 \\ \text { Strong } & 0.1 & 60 \\ & 1.0 & \\ \hline \end{array}$$ Calculate the stock's expected return, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation.

Suppose you are the money manager of a \(\$ 4\) million investment fund. The fund consists of 4 stocks with the following investments and betas: $$\begin{array}{ccc} \text { STOCK } & \text { INVESTMENT } & \text { BETA } \\ \hline \mathrm{A} & \mathrm{S} 400,000 & 1.50 \\ \mathrm{B} & 600,000 & (0.50) \\ \mathrm{C} & 1,000,000 & 1.25 \\ \mathrm{D} & 2,000,000 & 0.75 \end{array}$$ If the market's required rate of return is 14 percent and the risk-free rate is 6 percent, what is the fund's required rate of return?

The tendency of a stock's price to move up and down with the market is reflected in its beta coefficient. Therefore, beta is a measure of an investment's market risk and is a key element of the CAPM. In this exercise you will find betas using Yahoo!Finance, located at http:// finance.yahoo.com. To find a company's beta, enter the desired stock symbol and request a basic quote. Once you have the basic quote, select the "Profile" option in the "More Info" section of the basic quote screen. Scroll down this page to find the stock's beta. a. According to Yahoo!Finance, what is the beta for a company called ELXSI, whose stock symbol is ELXS? b. From Yahoo!Finance obtain a report on MBNA America Bank's holding company, \(\mathrm{KRB},\) whose stock symbol is KRB. What is KRB's beta? c. Obtain and view a report for Exxon Mobil Corporation and identify its beta. Use Yahoo!Finance's look-up feature to obtain Exxon Mobil's trading symbol. To do this, click on symbol lookup, type part of the company name, say Exxon, and then click on Lookup. (Hint: You should find that the company's stock symbol is XOM.) d. Obtain and view a report on Ford Motor Company, and identify its beta. Use Yahoo!Finance's look-up feature to obtain Ford's trading symbol. e. If you made an equal dollar investment in each of the four stocks above, ELXSI, KRB, Exxon Mobil, and Ford Motor Company, what would be your portfolio's beta? a. According to Yahoo!Finance, what is the beta for a company called ELXSI, whose stock symbol is ELXS? b. From Yahoo!Finance obtain a report on MBNA America Bank's holding company, \(\mathrm{KRB},\) whose stock symbol is KRB. What is KRB's beta? c. Obtain and view a report for Exxon Mobil Corporation and identify its beta. Use Yahoo!Finance's look-up feature to obtain Exxon Mobil's trading symbol. To do this, click on symbol lookup, type part of the company name, say Exxon, and then click on Lookup. (Hint: You should find that the company's stock symbol is XOM.) d. Obtain and view a report on Ford Motor Company, and identify its beta. Use Yahoo!Finance's look-up feature to obtain Ford's trading symbol. e. If you made an equal dollar investment in each of the four stocks above, ELXSI, KRB, Exxon Mobil, and Ford Motor Company, what would be your portfolio's beta?

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