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Suppose we wish to test the hypothesis \(H_{0}: \mu=2\) vs. \(H_{1}: \mu \neq 2 .\) We find a two-sided \(p\) -value of .03 and \(a 95 \%\) Cl for \(\mu\) of \((1.5,4.0) .\) Are these two results possibly compatible? Why or why not?

Short Answer

Expert verified
No, these results are incompatible as the p-value indicates significance while the CI suggests \(H_0\) is plausible.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Problem

We need to determine if a two-sided p-value of 0.03 and a 95% confidence interval (CI) for \(\mu\) of (1.5, 4.0) are providing consistent information regarding the hypothesis test about \(\mu\). In this scenario, \(H_0\) is \(\mu=2\) and \(H_1\) is \(\mu eq 2\).
02

Analyzing the P-value

A two-sided p-value of 0.03 suggests that there is a statistically significant difference from \(\mu = 2\) at a significance level of 0.05 (since 0.03 < 0.05), leading us to reject \(H_0\).
03

Interpreting the Confidence Interval

The 95% confidence interval for \(\mu\) is (1.5, 4.0). Since this interval contains the value \(\mu = 2\), it suggests there is no strong evidence to reject \(\mu = 2\) within the interval, implying \(\mu = 2\) is a plausible value.
04

Comparing Results for Compatibility

Despite the p-value indicating statistical significance, the confidence interval including 2 suggests otherwise. These results seem incompatible because the p-value suggests rejecting \(H_0\), while the confidence interval implies \(H_0\) may still be plausible.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Understanding the P-Value
The p-value is a crucial element in hypothesis testing. It helps us decide whether the observed data deviates significantly from the null hypothesis. In our scenario, we have a p-value of 0.03.
This means that there is a 3% probability that the results we observed could happen if the null hypothesis (\(H_0: \mu=2\)) were true.
Because this p-value is lower than the common significance level of 0.05 (or 5%), we consider the results statistically significant.
  • A p-value below 0.05 typically means there is enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis.
  • This suggests the data we have is not consistent with the null hypothesis.
Decoding Confidence Intervals
A confidence interval provides a range of values with which we can be fairly certain the population parameter lies. In this case, the 95% confidence interval is (1.5, 4.0) for \(\mu\).
This range indicates that if we repeat the experiment many times, 95 out of 100 times, the calculated interval will contain the true mean \(\mu\).
Here, the interval is quite wide and includes our null hypothesis value \(\mu = 2\).
  • When an interval includes the hypothesized value, it implies that the value is plausible and we lack strong evidence to reject \(\mu = 2\).
  • Wider intervals suggest more variability in data or a smaller sample size.
Exploring Statistical Significance
Statistical significance is a kind of proof we look for in hypothesis testing to determine if our findings are not due to mere chance. The p-value is often used as a tool to judge this.
When we find that our p-value (0.03) is less than our significance level (0.05), it signals statistical significance, suggesting we reject the null hypothesis.
  • However, statistical significance does not always imply practical significance or importance.
  • The discrepancy between the p-value and the confidence interval results leads us to question the dichotomous nature of statistical significance alone.
This difference can occur due to sample size, variation in data, and the spread of the confidence interval, reminding us that multiple aspects should be considered for sound inference.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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