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A study [12] of incidence rates of blindness among insulindependent diabetics reported that the annual incidence rate of blindness per year was \(0.67 \%\) among 30 - to 39 -year-old male insulin-dependent diabetics (IDDM) and 0.74\% among 30- to 39-year-old female insulin-dependent diabetics. If a group of 200 IDDM 30 - to 39 -year-old women is followed, what is the probability that at least 2 will go blind over a 1 -year period?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that at least 2 women will go blind is approximately 0.4157.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

We need to calculate the probability of at least 2 women going blind in a group of 200 insulin-dependent diabetics aged 30 to 39, given an annual incidence rate of 0.74% for females.
02

Define the Random Variable and Distribution

We define a random variable, say \(X\), as the number of women going blind within the 1-year period. Given each woman has an independent probability of 0.74% of going blind, \(X\) follows a Binomial distribution \(X \sim \text{Binom}(n, p)\), where \(n = 200\) and \(p = 0.0074\).
03

Calculate the Probability of Less Than 2

To find the probability of at least 2 women going blind, we first calculate \(P(X < 2)\), which is the probability of 0 or 1 woman going blind. First, find \(P(X = 0)\) and \(P(X = 1)\).
04

Calculate Probability for X = 0

Use the formula for the binomial probability: \[ P(X = 0) = \binom{200}{0} (0.0074)^{0}(1 - 0.0074)^{200} \approx (1 - 0.0074)^{200}\].Evaluate this to get \(P(X = 0) \approx 0.2357\).
05

Calculate Probability for X = 1

Use the formula: \[ P(X = 1) = \binom{200}{1} (0.0074)^{1}(1 - 0.0074)^{199}\].Calculate as: \[ P(X = 1) \approx 200 \times 0.0074 \times (1 - 0.0074)^{199} \approx 0.3486\].
06

Add Probabilities for X < 2

Combine the probabilities calculated for \(P(X = 0)\) and \(P(X = 1)\): \[ P(X < 2) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) \approx 0.2357 + 0.3486 = 0.5843\].
07

Calculate Probability for At Least 2

Find \(P(X \geq 2)\) by subtracting \(P(X < 2)\) from 1: \[ P(X \geq 2) = 1 - P(X < 2) = 1 - 0.5843 = 0.4157\].

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Calculations
Probability calculations are crucial in understanding the likelihood of different outcomes in random events. In our case, the exercise asks for the probability that at least 2 women out of 200 will go blind, given a known incidence rate. This situation is modeled using the binomial distribution, which is a common way to represent a series of Bernoulli trials—independent events with exactly two possible outcomes like "going blind" or "not going blind." The key steps in probability calculations involve:
  • Identifying the total number of trials (here, 200 women).
  • Determining the probability of a single outcome (here, a 0.74% chance of blindness).
  • Using the binomial probability formula to calculate specific probabilities such as for 0 or 1 woman going blind.
In this exercise, these calculations lead to finding the total probability of the unwanted scenario (less than 2 women blind), and then subtracting this from 1 to get the probability of at least 2 women going blind.
Incidence Rate
The incidence rate is a measure used in epidemiology to describe the frequency with which a disease or condition occurs in a defined population over a specific period of time. For the problem at hand, the incidence rate of blindness among insulin-dependent diabetic women aged 30 to 39 is 0.74% per year. This means, statistically, that for every 100 such women, expect 0.74 cases of blindness each year. Incidence rates provide valuable information:
  • They help public health officials understand and anticipate healthcare needs.
  • In a study context, they provide the probability needed for setting up calculations in problems utilizing distributions such as binomial or Poisson.
Understanding and interpreting incidence rates can often simplify the next steps in statistical problem-solving, as it is a core part of defining probabilities used in these calculations.
Blindness Among Diabetics
Blindness among diabetics, particularly those dependent on insulin, is a significant public health issue. Diabetic retinopathy is one of the most common causes of blindness in this group, and it occurs when high blood sugar levels cause damage to blood vessels in the retina. Factors that influence the incidence of blindness among diabetics include:
  • The duration of the disease, with longer durations leading to higher risk.
  • Effectiveness of diabetes management, as better blood sugar control can reduce risk.
  • Genetic factors may also play a role in susceptibility.
These factors can complicate simple statistical models, but grasping the fundamental statistics, such as the notion of incidence rates and basic probability calculations, lays a strong foundation for deeper study into health statistics and risk factors.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A study [12] of incidence rates of blindness among insulindependent diabetics reported that the annual incidence rate of blindness per year was \(0.67 \%\) among 30 - to 39 -year-old male insulin-dependent diabetics (IDDM) and 0.74\% among 30- to 39-year-old female insulin-dependent diabetics. What is the probability that a 30 -year-old IDDM male patient will go blind over the next 10 years?

A study [12] of incidence rates of blindness among insulindependent diabetics reported that the annual incidence rate of blindness per year was \(0.67 \%\) among 30 - to 39 -year-old male insulin-dependent diabetics (IDDM) and 0.74\% among 30- to 39-year-old female insulin-dependent diabetics. What does cumulative incidence mean, in words, in the context of this problem?

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An experiment is designed to test the potency of a drug on 20 rats. Previous animal studies have shown that a \(10-\mathrm{mg}\) dose of the drug is lethal \(5 \%\) of the time within the first 4 hours; of the animals alive at 4 hours, \(10 \%\) will die in the next 4 hours. What is the probability that 0 rats will die in the 8-hour period?

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