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In a Los Angeles Times poll of 1936 California residents conducted in February 2004 , the following question was asked: Do you favor or oppose an amendment to the U.S. Constitution barring same-sex marriage? The following results were obtained: $$\begin{array}{lccc} \hline \text { Opinion } & \text { Favor } & \text { Oppose } & \text { Don't know } \\ \hline \text { Respondents } & 910 & 891 & 135 \\ \hline \end{array}$$ Determine the empirical probability distribution associated with these data.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The empirical probability distribution associated with the given poll data is: $P(Opinion) \ =\ \begin{cases} 0.47 & \text{if Opinion = Favor} \\ 0.46 & \text{if Opinion = Oppose} \\ 0.07 & \text{if Opinion = Don't Know} \end{cases}$

Step by step solution

01

Identify the total number of respondents

The total number of respondents in the survey is 1936.
02

Calculate the probability of each outcome

To find the probability of each outcome, divide the number of occurrences of the outcome by the total number of respondents. Probability of Favor: \[\frac{910}{1936}\] Probability of Oppose: \[\frac{891}{1936}\] Probability of Don't Know: \[\frac{135}{1936}\]
03

Simplify the probabilities

Now let's simplify the probabilities. Probability of Favor: \[\frac{910}{1936} \approx 0.47\] Probability of Oppose: \[\frac{891}{1936} \approx 0.46\] Probability of Don't Know: \[\frac{135}{1936} \approx 0.07\]
04

Write the empirical probability distribution

The empirical probability distribution can be written as: - \(P(Favor) \approx 0.47\) - \(P(Oppose) \approx 0.46\) - \(P(Don't Know) \approx 0.07\) So, the empirical probability distribution associated with these data is: $P(Opinion) \ =\ \begin{cases} 0.47 & \text{if Opinion = Favor} \\ 0.46 & \text{if Opinion = Oppose} \\ 0.07 & \text{if Opinion = Don't Know} \end{cases}$

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Finite Mathematics
Finite mathematics is a branch of the mathematical sciences that deals with mathematical concepts and techniques that are usually finite in nature. This often involves discrete elements, albeit with a wide range of applications including operations research, finance, and probability theory. Understanding finite mathematics is crucial when analyzing data from polls or surveys since it uses finite sets of elements like the number of respondents and a finite number of responses.

In this case, addressing the survey conducted by the Los Angeles Times, finite mathematics allows us to handle and compute the empirical probabilities of discreet responses to a question from the survey participants. Each response can be counted and analyzed mathematically to help make decisions or policy laws based on public opinion. The calculation of these probabilities relies on finite mathematics techniques such as ratio and proportion within the data set.
Probability Calculation
Probability calculation is the process of determining the likelihood of an event occurring. In the context of this exercise, each respondent's answer—favor, oppose, or don’t know—is an event, and the goal is to find out how likely each response is, given the total number of respondents. We begin by identifying the total occurrences of each outcome and then dividing that by the total number of survey respondents. This gives us the relative frequency of each response, which approximates the empirical probability of the event.

  • The first step involves adding all possible outcomes to achieve the event space total, which was 1936 in this survey.
  • Following that, the probability for each event is calculated by dividing the number of occurrences of that event by the total number of events. We then simplify these results to obtain a decimal that signifies the empirical probability.
Probability calculations like these inform us of trends and public opinions, which can be important for policy-makers, businesses, and researchers who aim to understand a population's stance on certain issues.
Survey Data Analysis
Survey data analysis involves collecting, examining, and interpreting responses from surveys to gain insights into behaviors, opinions, or characteristics of a group of people. The analysis typically begins with a clear understanding of the survey questions and the demographic of the respondents. It progresses by organizing and summarizing the data which often results in tables like the one presented in the Los Angeles Times poll.

By analyzing survey data, we can quantify the opinions or preferences of a population over qualitative data as seen with the poll concerning same-sex marriage. Analyzing the empirical probability distribution assists in presenting the data more concisely. Each response's empirical probability helps in determining the public's majority stance on an issue.

When improving the survey analysis, it's important to ensure that the sample size is large and diverse enough to represent the population accurately. It’s also critical to consider the context of the questions and the possible implications of the findings, as this helps draw meaningful conclusions from the survey data.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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Refer to the following experiment: Urn A contains four white and six black balls. Urn B contains three white and five black balls. A ball is drawn from urn A and then transferred to urn B. A ball is then drawn from urn B. Represent the probabilities associated with this two-stage experiment in the form of a tree diagram.

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