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Four balls are selected at random without replacement from an urn containing three white balls and five blue balls. Find the probability of the given event. Exactly three of the balls are blue.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability of picking exactly three blue balls out of the four selected balls from the urn is \(\frac{1}{24}\), which is approximately 0.0417, or 4.17%.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the Total Number of Possible Outcomes

When you have n objects (in this case, n=8 balls in the urn), and you want to choose r of them without replacement (r=4 in this case), the number of possible combinations is given by the binomial coefficient. The formula for this is: \[\binom{n}{r} = \frac{n!}{(n-r)!r!}\] where n! represents the factorial of n. In our case, we have n=8 and r=4. Calculate the total number of possible outcomes: \[\binom{8}{4} = \frac{8!}{(8-4)!4!}=\frac{8!}{4!4!}\]
02

Calculate the Number of Favorable Outcomes

A favorable outcome occurs when we pick three blue balls and one white ball. Since there are five blue balls and three white balls in the urn, we can calculate the number of favorable combinations by multiplying the combinations for choosing the blue balls and the combinations for choosing the white balls: \[\binom{5}{3} \cdot \binom{3}{1} = \left( \frac{5!}{(5-3)!3!} \right) \cdot \left( \frac{3!}{(3-1)!1!}\right)\]
03

Calculate the Probability

The probability of picking exactly three blue balls is the ratio of the number of favorable outcomes to the total number of possible outcomes: \[P(\text{Exactly 3 blue})= \frac{\text{Number of Favorable Outcomes}}{\text{Total Number of Possible Outcomes}} = \frac{\binom{5}{3} \cdot \binom{3}{1}}{\binom{8}{4}}\] \[P(\text{Exactly 3 blue})= \frac{\left( \frac{5!}{(5-3)!3!} \right) \cdot \left( \frac{3!}{(3-1)!1!}\right)}{\left( \frac{8!}{4!4!}\right)}\]
04

Simplify the Probability Expression

Now, we just need to substitute the factorials and simplify the expression to find the probability: \[P(\text{Exactly 3 blue})= \frac{\frac{5!}{2!3!} \cdot \frac{3!}{2!1!}}{\frac{8!}{4!4!}} = \frac{\frac{5!}{3!} \cdot 3!}{\frac{8!}{4!4!}}=\frac{5!}{\frac{8!}{4!4!}}\] \[P(\text{Exactly 3 blue})= \frac{5! \cdot 4!4!}{8!} = \frac{5!}{\frac{8!}{4!4!}} = \frac{5! \cdot 4!4!}{8!}\] \[P(\text{Exactly 3 blue})= \frac{5! \cdot 4! \cdot 4!}{(5!4!)4!}\] \[P(\text{Exactly 3 blue})= \frac{1}{4!}= \frac{1}{24}\]
05

Interpret the Result

The probability of picking exactly three blue balls out of the four selected balls from the urn is \(\frac{1}{24}\), which is approximately 0.0417, or 4.17%.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Combinatorics
Combinatorics is the branch of mathematics that deals with counting, arrangement, and combination of objects. It helps answer questions like how many different ways you can choose or arrange items. In probability theory, combinatorics is crucial because it helps calculate the number of possible outcomes an event can have. For example, in the original problem, combinatorics is used to decide how many ways we can pick four balls from a total of eight. Understanding this concept aids in solving complex probability exercises easily and correctly.

To dive deeper into this concept:
  • Permutations are arrangements where order matters.
  • Combinations are selections where order does not matter.
In this problem, we used combinations because the order of balls picked doesn't matter!
Binomial Coefficient
The binomial coefficient is a fundamental part of combinatorics. It represents the number of ways to choose a subset of items from a larger set, where order doesn’t matter. It's denoted by \(\binom{n}{r}\). This might seem complex, but it simply counts the number of ways to pick "r" objects from "n" total objects.

The formula for the binomial coefficient is: \\[ \binom{n}{r} = \frac{n!}{(n-r)!r!} \\]

In the example given, we use \(\binom{8}{4}\) to find how many ways we can choose 4 balls from 8. Similar calculations, \(\binom{5}{3}\) and \(\binom{3}{1}\) determine separate counts for picking blue and white balls respectively. Being good at computing binomial coefficients strengthens your grip on solving probability problems efficiently.
Factorials
A factorial, denoted as \(n!\), is the product of all positive integers from 1 to n. It's a handy tool in mathematics and particularly useful in solving problems involving counting methods such as permutations and combinations. Factorials grow fast! For example, 4! = 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 24.

Factorials help calculate binomial coefficients. In our scenario, we calculated the binomial coefficient \(\binom{8}{4}\) using factorials: \(\frac{8!}{(8-4)!4!}\). Here, 8! is worked out as 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1.

Factorials can be found in many fields such as probability theory, and they help solve real-world problems involving large numbers and arrangements.
Probability Calculation
Probability calculations help determine how likely an event is to happen. It’s usually expressed as a number between 0 and 1, where 0 means impossible and 1 means certain. The formula we often use is Probability = Number of Favorable Outcomes / Total Number of Possible Outcomes.

In the exercise, our goal was to find the chance that exactly three of the selected four balls are blue. First, we calculated the total possible outcomes \(\binom{8}{4}\) which considers how all possible selections of balls might occur from the urn. Then, we figured out the favorable ways to draw exactly three blue balls, \(\binom{5}{3}\), and one white ball, \(\binom{3}{1}\), multiplying them together for the favorable outcome formula.

The ratio of these favorable selections to the total possible selections gives us the desired probability, \(P\), which was ultimately calculated as \(\frac{1}{24}\). This means that if you repeatedly pick four balls from the urn under the same conditions, on average, about 4.17% of the time you would draw exactly three blue balls.

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