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Let \(A\) and \(B\) be two cvents in a sample space \(S\) such that \(P(A)=.6, P(B)=.5\), and \(P(A \cap B)=.2\). Find a. \(P(A \mid B)\) b. \(P(B \mid A)\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
The final conditional probabilities are: a. \(P(A \mid B) = 0.4\) b. \(P(B \mid A) = \frac{1}{3}\)

Step by step solution

01

Calculate \(P(A \mid B)\)

Using the given information and the formula for conditional probability, we have: \[P(A \mid B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} = \frac{0.2}{0.5}\]
02

Simplify \(P(A \mid B)\)

Divide the numerator by the denominator to get the simplified probability: \[P(A \mid B) = \frac{0.2}{0.5} = 0.4\] So, \(P(A \mid B) = 0.4\).
03

Calculate \(P(B \mid A)\)

Similarly, using the formula for conditional probability, we have: \[P(B \mid A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)} = \frac{0.2}{0.6}\]
04

Simplify \(P(B \mid A)\)

Divide the numerator by the denominator to get the simplified probability: \[P(B \mid A) = \frac{0.2}{0.6} = \frac{1}{3}\] So, \(P(B \mid A) = \frac{1}{3}\). The final conditional probabilities are: a. \(P(A \mid B) = 0.4\) b. \(P(B \mid A) = \frac{1}{3}\)

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Theory
Probability theory is a branch of mathematics focused on analyzing random phenomena.
It assigns a likelihood or measure to the potential outcomes of an event occurring.
In simple terms, it helps us quantify how probable an event is to happen.

The main components of probability theory include:
  • Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes in any trial or experiment.
  • Events: Specific outcomes or sets of outcomes from the sample space.
  • Probability Measure: A numerical value assigned to each event, representing the chance of its occurrence.
Using these components, probability theory offers tools like conditional probability to deepen our analysis.
Conditional probability measures the chance of one event occurring given that another event has occurred.
It is calculated using the formula:\[ P(A \mid B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} \] for events \( A \) and \( B \) within the same sample space.
Events in Sample Space
In probability theory, the sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment or event.
Each possible outcome is a point in this space.
Understanding your sample space fully is critical for determining probabilities.

For example, consider rolling a standard die.
The sample space \( S \) is \( \{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6\} \).
All these outcomes are within this defined space.

Events are specific outcomes, or a set of outcomes, which we are interested in.
For instance, getting an even number when rolling a die is an event.
This can be represented as \( A = \{2, 4, 6\} \) in our die-rolling example.

Analyzing events in relation to the entire sample space allows us to compute their probabilities accurately.
The probability of an event is the sum of the probabilities of the outcomes comprising the event.
Intersection of Events
When dealing with probabilities, it's common to explore the intersection of events.
The intersection \( A \cap B \) represents the set of outcomes common to both events \( A \) and \( B \).
It reflects outcomes that satisfy both events simultaneously.

For example, consider two events.
Event \( A \) could be rolling an even number on a die, i.e., \( \{2, 4, 6\} \).
Event \( B \) could be rolling a number greater than 3, i.e., \( \{4, 5, 6\} \).
The intersection \( A \cap B \) would be \( \{4, 6\} \) as these are even numbers greater than 3.

The probability of this intersection can be found using the formula for unconditional probability:
\[ P(A \cap B) \]

Understanding intersections is vital, especially when dealing with dependent events that affect each other.
For conditional probabilities, this concept is essential, as they rely heavily on intersections to determine probabilities of events given specific conditions.

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