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In exercise, you are performing 5 independent Bernoulli trials with \(p=.1\) and \(q=.9 .\) Calculate the probability of each of the stated outcomes. Check your answer using technology. At least three successes

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability of at least three successes in 5 independent Bernoulli trials with \(p=0.1\) and \(q=0.9\) is approximately 0.00856.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the binomial probability formula

The binomial probability formula is given by: \(P(X=k)=\binom{n}{k} p^k q^{n-k}\) Where \(P(X=k)\) is the probability of \(k\) successes in \(n\) trials, \(n\) is the total number of trials, \(k\) is the number of successes we're interested in, \(p\) is the probability of success, and \(q\) is the probability of failure. In this exercise, we will use this formula to find the probabilities of 3, 4, and 5 successes.
02

Calculate the probability of 3 successes

Using the binomial probability formula with \(n=5\), \(k=3\), \(p=0.1\), and \(q=0.9\): \(P(X=3)=\binom{5}{3}(0.1)^3(0.9)^2\) First, calculate the binomial coefficient \(\binom{5}{3}=\frac{5!}{3!(5-3)!}=\frac{5\times4\times3\times2\times1}{(3\times2\times1)(2\times1)}=10\) Next, substitute this value back into the equation: \(P(X=3)=10\times(0.1)^3\times(0.9)^2\approx0.0081\)
03

Calculate the probability of 4 successes

Using the binomial probability formula with \(n=5\), \(k=4\), \(p=0.1\), and \(q=0.9\): \(P(X=4)=\binom{5}{4}(0.1)^4(0.9)^1\) Calculate the binomial coefficient \(\binom{5}{4}=\frac{5!}{4!(5-4)!}=\frac{5\times4\times3\times2\times1}{(4\times3\times2\times1)(1)}=5\) Substitute this value back into the equation: \(P(X=4)=5\times(0.1)^4\times(0.9)^1\approx0.00045\)
04

Calculate the probability of 5 successes

Using the binomial probability formula with \(n=5\), \(k=5\), \(p=0.1\), and \(q=0.9\): \(P(X=5)=\binom{5}{5}(0.1)^5(0.9)^0\) Calculate the binomial coefficient \(\binom{5}{5}=\frac{5!}{5!(5-5)!}=\frac{5\times4\times3\times2\times1}{(5\times4\times3\times2\times1)(1)}=1\) Substitute this value back into the equation: \(P(X=5)=1\times(0.1)^5\times(0.9)^0=0.00001\)
05

Find the probability of at least 3 successes

To find the probability of at least 3 successes, we add the probabilities of 3, 4, and 5 successes: \(P(X\geq3)=P(X=3)+P(X=4)+P(X=5)\approx0.0081+0.00045+0.00001=0.00856\) So the probability of at least three successes is approximately 0.00856.
06

Check the answer using technology

You can use a calculator or software like Microsoft Excel, R, or Python to calculate the binomial probabilities and confirm the answer calculated above. In this case, the calculated probability of at least three successes (0.00856) should match the probability computed using technology.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Bernoulli Trials
In the world of probability and statistics, a Bernoulli trial is a simple experiment that can result in exactly two possible outcomes, often termed as "success" and "failure." Each trial is characterized by a constant probability of success, denoted by \(p\), and a probability of failure, \(q\), where \(q = 1 - p\).
Bernoulli trials are the building blocks for various probability distributions, especially the Binomial distribution. For example, flipping a coin, which has two outcomes (heads or tails), is a Bernoulli trial if we consider getting heads as a success.
  • Bernoulli trials are independent, meaning the outcome of one trial does not affect another.
  • The probability of success \(p\) remains the same across trials.
When you combine multiple Bernoulli trials, they form the basis for the Binomial distribution. In problems like the one given, performing five independent Bernoulli trials with specified probabilities simulates real-world processes, like defective product inspections.
Probability of Success
The probability of success in a Bernoulli trial is a crucial part of calculating binomial probabilities. It is simply the likelihood that our desired outcome, or "success," will happen on any individual trial. In our example, the probability of success, denoted as \(p=0.1\), signifies a 10% chance of achieving success in each of the five trials.
This probability helps determine the likelihood of various amounts of successes across all trials. Notably, it influences the entire binomial calculation since how often we expect a success affects the final probabilities of results.
  • If \(p\) is high, successes are more likely, resulting in higher probabilities for outcomes with many successes.
  • Conversely, if \(p\) is low, fewer successes become more probable, leading to higher probabilities for lower numbers of successes.
This part of the equation is used extensively in fields like quality control, finance, and risk assessment, where outcomes need to be predicted or analyzed over repeated trials.
Binomial Coefficient
The binomial coefficient is a key component in calculating probabilities in a binomial distribution. It represents the number of combinations of picking \(k\) successes out of \(n\) total trials. The coefficient is denoted by \(\binom{n}{k}\), and calculated using the formula: \[\binom{n}{k} = \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!}\]The exclamation mark (!) denotes a factorial, which is the product of an integer and all the integers below it.
In the given problem, the binomial coefficient changes based on the number of successes. For instance, when calculating the probability of 3 successes out of 5 trials:
  • \(\binom{5}{3} = 10\) means there are 10 different ways to get 3 successes.
This component multiplies with powers of \(p\) and \(q\) to determine the exact probability of that particular outcome. Understanding binomial coefficients is fundamental because they help determine various scenarios' possibilities in repeated experiments.

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