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In exercise, \(X\) is a binomial variable with \(n=6\) and \(p=.4 .\) Compute the given probabilities. Check your answer using technology. $$ P(X \leq 1) $$

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that the binomial variable X is less than or equal to 1 for a binomial distribution with n=6 and p=0.4 is approximately 0.233280. This is calculated by summing up the probabilities for X=0 and X=1 using the binomial probability formula, and the result is verified using technology.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the binomial probability formula

The probability mass function of a binomial random variable X is given by the following formula: $$ P(X=k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} $$ where \(\binom{n}{k} = \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!}\) is the binomial coefficient, n is the number of trials, p is the probability of success and k is the number of successes.
02

Calculate P(X=0)

Using the binomial probability formula, we will calculate the probability of X being equal to 0: $$ P(X=0) = \binom{6}{0} (0.4)^0 (1-0.4)^{6-0} $$ $$ P(X=0) = \frac{6!}{0!(6-0)!} (1)^0 (0.6)^{6} $$ $$ P(X=0) = \frac{6!}{0!6!} (0.6)^6 $$ $$ P(X=0) = 1 (0.046656) $$ $$ P(X=0) \approx 0.046656 $$
03

Calculate P(X=1)

Now we will calculate the probability of X being equal to 1: $$ P(X=1) = \binom{6}{1} (0.4)^1 (1-0.4)^{6-1} $$ $$ P(X=1) = \frac{6!}{1!(6-1)!} (0.4)^1 (0.6)^{5} $$ $$ P(X=1) = \frac{6!}{1!5!} (0.4) (0.07776) $$ $$ P(X=1) = 6 (0.031104) $$ $$ P(X=1) \approx 0.186624 $$
04

Calculate P(X ≤ 1)

Now that we have calculated the probabilities for X=0 and X=1, we will find the probability that X is less than or equal to 1 by summing up the individual probabilities: $$ P(X \leq 1) = P(X=0) + P(X=1) $$ $$ P(X \leq 1) \approx 0.046656 + 0.186624 $$ $$ P(X \leq 1) \approx 0.233280 $$
05

Verify your answer using technology

To verify our answer, we can use a calculator or software that supports binomial probability calculations (such as Wolfram Alpha, R, Python, or any graphing calculator). Enter the parameters n=6 and p=0.4, and ask for the cumulative probability of X being less than or equal to 1: P(X ≤ 1) ≈ 0.233280 Our manual calculations and the technology-based calculations match, which shows that our answer is correct.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Mass Function
In the world of probability theory, the Probability Mass Function (PMF) is a fundamental concept for describing the distribution of a discrete random variable, like a binomial variable. A PMF assigns a probability to each possible outcome, ensuring that the total probability over all outcomes sums to one.
For a binomial random variable, the PMF is given by this formula:
  • \[P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k}\]
This tells us the probability of observing exactly \(k\) successes in \(n\) trials, where each trial has a success probability of \(p\).
In plain words, the PMF helps calculate how likely it is to get a certain number of successes in a series of trials. It provides a complete picture of where a binomial distribution's outcomes will fall.
Binomial Coefficient
The binomial coefficient is a key part of the binomial probability formula. It determines the number of ways to choose \(k\) successes from \(n\) trials. Mathematically, it’s represented as \( \binom{n}{k} \), and calculated by the formula:
  • \[ \binom{n}{k} = \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!}\]
Here, \(n!\) (read as 'n factorial') means multiplying all positive integers up to \(n\). For instance, \(4! = 4 \times 3 \times 2 \times 1 = 24\). Similarly, \(k!\) and \((n-k)!\) are calculated.
In every binomial probability calculation, the binomial coefficient tells us the number of different ways \(k\) successes can occur among \(n\) trials. This makes it essential for understanding the structure of binomial distributions.
Cumulative Probability
Cumulative probability signifies the likelihood that a random variable takes a value less than or equal to a specific value. For binomial distributions, calculating cumulative probabilities entails summing the probabilities from the PMF up to a certain point.
For example, if we need to find \(P(X \leq 1)\), we calculate the probabilities for \(X=0\) and \(X=1\) using the PMF and then sum these probabilities:
  • \[P(X \leq 1) = P(X=0) + P(X=1)\]
This provides the total probability of having 0 or 1 successes in the given trials. Cumulative probabilities are highly useful for understanding how outcomes stack up to a certain threshold, which is crucial in decision making and statistics.
Verification with Technology
In today's data-driven world, verifying calculations using technology has become a standard practice. With regards to binomial distributions, keeping accuracy in check, especially when dealing with many trials, can be easily done with computational tools.
Tools like graphing calculators, software like R or Python, and computational websites such as Wolfram Alpha provide functions to compute binomial probabilities. They quickly return cumulative probabilities given the number of trials \(n\), the probability of success \(p\), and the desired number of successes.
  • For instance, simply inputting the parameters into a graphing calculator to get the outcome for \(P(X \leq 1)\) can save time and reduce errors compared to manual calculations.
Using technology for verification ensures the results are trustworthy and allows students to focus on understanding the concepts rather than getting caught up in arithmetic errors.

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