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In exercise, you are performing 5 independent Bernoulli trials with \(p=.1\) and \(q=.9 .\) Calculate the probability of each of the stated outcomes. Check your answer using technology. Two successes

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability of obtaining exactly two successes in the 5 independent Bernoulli trials is approximately 0.0729.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Binomial Probability Formula

The Binomial Probability Formula is given by: \[P(X=k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k}\] where \(n\) is the number of trials, \(k\) is the number of successes we want, \(p\) is the probability of success, and \(1-p\) is the probability of failure (or \(q\)). In this case, we have \(n=5\), \(k=2\), \(p=0.1\), and \(q=0.9\).
02

Calculate the Combinations

Using the combination formula, \(\binom{n}{k} = \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!}\), we can calculate \(\binom{5}{2}\) as: \[\binom{5}{2} = \frac{5!}{2!(5-2)!} = \frac{5!}{2!3!} = \frac{120}{(2)(6)} = 10\]
03

Find the Probability of Two Successes

Now, using the binomial probability formula, we can calculate the probability of having exactly two successes: \[P(X=2) = \binom{5}{2} \times p^2 \times q^{5-2}\] Substitute the given values into the formula: \[P(X=2) = 10 \times (0.1)^2 \times (0.9)^3 \] Now, perform the calculations: \[P(X=2) = 10 \times 0.01 \times 0.729 \] \[P(X=2) \approx 0.0729\] So, the probability of obtaining exactly two successes in the 5 independent Bernoulli trials is approximately 0.0729.
04

Check the Answer Using Technology

We can use technology (such as a calculator or programming language) to confirm our calculated probability. For example, in Python, we could use the following code: ```python from math import comb probability = comb(5, 2) * (0.1 ** 2) * (0.9 ** 3) print(probability) ``` Running this code should result in an output close to the calculated probability of 0.0729.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Bernoulli trials
Bernoulli trials are fundamental in understanding many probability problems. A Bernoulli trial is a random experiment with exactly two possible outcomes: "success" and "failure". Each of these trials is independent, meaning the outcome of one trial doesn't affect the others. The probability of success is denoted by \( p \) and 1 minus that probability, \( 1-p \), is the probability of failure.

In the given exercise, you are performing 5 Bernoulli trials. The probability of success (\( p \)) is 0.1, which means there is a 10% chance of achieving success in each individual trial. Conversely, the probability of failure (\( q \)) is 0.9, or 90% chance of failure per trial.

Understanding Bernoulli trials is essential because they form the basis for binomial experiments, where you perform a fixed number of such trials and analyze the number of successful outcomes.
combinatorial calculations
Combinatorial calculations play a crucial role in evaluating probabilities in binomial distributions. They involve determining the number of ways you can choose a specific number of successful outcomes from a series of trials. This is where combinations come into play.

To find combinations, we use the formula \( \binom{n}{k} = \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!}\), where \( n \) is the total number of trials and \( k \) is the number of desired successes. Factorials are used to calculate these combinations, where \( n! \) (read as \( n \) factorial) is the product of all positive integers up to \( n \).

In the exercise provided, you calculate \( \binom{5}{2} \), meaning you seek how many ways you can get exactly two successes in 5 trials. The calculation yields 10, indicating there are 10 different ways to achieve this outcome.
probability theory
Probability theory helps us quantify how likely an event is to occur. One of its main problems is understanding the behavior of random events in a structured form, especially in the context of repeated trials or experiments.

In the setting of the exercise, probability theory is applied through the Binomial Probability formula:

\[ P(X=k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \]

Using this, we calculate the probability of exactly \( k \) successes across \( n \) trials, where \( p \) is the probability of success in a single trial. This formula combines combinatorial calculations with probability, making it a powerful tool for predicting outcomes across multiple trials.

For our problem, plugging in the values, we calculated that the probability of exactly two successes within five trials is approximately 0.0729. This gives a mathematical measure of the likelihood that our desired outcome will occur.
independent events
In probability, independent events are those whose outcomes do not affect each other. This is a pivotal concept because it means each trial’s result has no bearing on others.

In our exercise setup, each of the 5 Bernoulli trials is independent. This independence implies the probability of achieving a success or a failure in one trial remains constant at \( p = 0.1 \) and \( q = 0.9 \), regardless of what happens in the other trials.

This independence is what allows the multiplication of individual probabilities for calculating the overall outcome in a binomial distribution. If events were not independent, their probabilities would somehow influence each other, complicating calculations. Thus, ensuring the independence of trials is critical for applying the Binomial Probability formula accurately.

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