/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 51 A market survey shows that \(40 ... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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A market survey shows that \(40 \%\) of the population used Brand X laundry detergent last year, \(5 \%\) of the population gave up doing its laundry last year, and \(4 \%\) of the population used Brand \(X\) and then gave up doing laundry last year. Are the events of using Brand \(X\) and giving up doing laundry independent? Is a user of Brand X detergent more or less likely to give up doing laundry than a randomly chosen person?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The events of using Brand X and giving up doing laundry are not independent, as the probability of both events occurring together (4%) is not equal to the product of their individual probabilities (2%). Furthermore, a user of Brand X detergent is more likely to give up doing laundry than a randomly chosen person, with a conditional probability of 10% compared to the overall probability of 5%.

Step by step solution

01

Identify given probabilities

We are given the following probabilities: P(Using Brand X) = 40% = 0.4 P(Giving up laundry) = 5% = 0.05 P(Using Brand X and giving up laundry) = 4% = 0.04
02

Check for independence

Two events are independent if P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B). In our case, we need to check if P(Using Brand X and giving up laundry) = P(Using Brand X) * P(Giving up laundry). Let's calculate P(Using Brand X) * P(Giving up laundry): 0.4 * 0.05 = 0.02 Now, we compare this result with P(Using Brand X and giving up laundry), which is 0.04. Since 0.02 is not equal to 0.04, the events of using Brand X and giving up doing laundry are not independent.
03

Compare conditional probability with overall probability

Now, we need to determine the conditional probability of a person giving up on laundry given they use Brand X: P(Giving up laundry | Using Brand X) For this, we will use the formula: P(Giving up laundry | Using Brand X) = P(Using Brand X and giving up laundry) / P(Using Brand X) P(Giving up laundry | Using Brand X) = 0.04 / 0.4 = 0.1 So, the conditional probability of a person giving up on laundry given they use Brand X is 10%. Finally, compare this conditional probability (10%) with the overall probability of a person giving up on laundry (5%). Since 10% > 5%, a user of Brand X detergent is more likely to give up doing laundry than a randomly chosen person. In conclusion, the events of using Brand X and giving up doing laundry are not independent, and a user of Brand X detergent is more likely to give up doing laundry than a randomly chosen person.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Conditional Probability
When we talk about conditional probability, we are dealing with the likelihood of an event occurring provided that another event has already taken place. This concept is fundamental in understanding how one event influences another within a probability space.

To express this relationship mathematically, we use the formula: \( P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \text{ and } B)}{P(B)} \) where \( P(A|B) \) is the probability of event A occurring given that B has already occurred. For our survey problem, we calculated the conditional probability of someone giving up doing their laundry given that they have used Brand X. Our calculation indicated that this likelihood is 10%, which is higher than the general probability of a random person giving up on laundry. This higher percentage signifies a relationship between using Brand X and the increased inclination to stop doing laundry.

Understanding conditional probability helps us to make informed decisions based on the occurrence of related events. It's especially useful when events are interconnected, as in the case of consumer behavior and product usage.
Independent Events
Now, let's dive into the concept of independent events. In probability, two events are considered independent if the occurrence of one event does not affect the probability of the other. This relationship (or lack thereof) can dramatically change the way outcomes are analyzed.

For events A and B to be independent, the equation \( P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \times P(B) \) must hold true. In the given survey, we initially assumed that the use of Brand X and the decision to give up doing laundry might be independent events. However, after performing the calculation, we concluded that these events are not independent because the probability of both events occurring together is not equal to the product of their individual probabilities. This discovery is crucial as it indicates a certain connection between the two events, which could be a focus for further investigation or analysis in consumer behavior studies.
Probability Calculation
Finally, probability calculation is the numeric method of determining how likely it is for an event to occur. Probability values range from 0 (impossible event) to 1 (certain event). The basic probability formula is \( P(A) = \frac{\text{number of ways event A can occur}}{\text{total number of outcomes}} \).

Calculations can be straightforward for simple events but may involve more complex formulas, like those for conditional probability and independence, for compound events. In our market survey problem, we calculated the probability of using Brand X and giving up laundry by multiplying two independent probabilities together. We also maneuvered through conditional probability calculations to provide additional insights. It’s important to carefully consider the conditions and relationships between events for accurate probability calculation and interpretation. These methods not only allowed us to deduce the relationship between using Brand X and the likelihood to give up doing laundry but also revealed that Brand X users were indeed more inclined to cease their laundry activities compared to the general population.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

According to a study conducted by the Harvard School of Public Health, a child seated in the front seat who was wearing a seatbelt was \(31 \%\) more likely to be killed in an accident if the car had an air bag that deployed than if it did not. \({ }^{50}\) Let the sample space \(S\) be the set of all accidents involving a child seated in the front seat wearing a seatbelt. Let \(K\) be the event that the child was killed and let \(D\) be the event that the airbag deployed. Fill in the missing terms and quantities: \(P(\longrightarrow \mid \longrightarrow)=\longrightarrow P(\longrightarrow \mid \longrightarrow)\). HINT [When we say "A is \(31 \%\) more likely than \(\mathrm{B}\) " we mean that the probability of \(\mathrm{A}\) is \(1.31\) times the probability of B.]

Based on the following table, which shows U.S. employment figures for 2007, broken down by educational attainment. \(^{49}\) All numbers are in millions, and represent civilians aged 25 years and over. Those classed as "not in labor force " were not employed nor actively seeking employment. Round all answers to two decimal places. Your friend claims that a person not in the labor force is more likely to have less than a high school diploma than an employed person. Respond to this claim by citing actual probabilities.

According to a University of Maryland study of 200 samples of ground meats, \({ }^{57}\) the probability that one of the samples was contaminated by salmonella was \(.20\). The probability that a salmonella-contaminated sample was contaminated by a strain resistant to at least one antibiotic was \(.84\), and the probability that a salmonella-contaminated sample was contaminated by a strain resistant to at least three antibiotics was \(.53\). Find the probability that a ground meat sample that was contaminated by an antibiotic-resistant strain was contaminated by a strain resistant to at least three antibiotics.

\(\nabla\) True or false? Every set \(S\) is the sample space for some experiment. Explain.

Astrology Another astrology software package, Java Kismet, is designed to help day traders choose stocks based on the position of the planets and constellations. When I ran it yesterday, it informed me that there was a .5 probability that Amazon.com will go up this afternoon, a \(.2\) probability that Yahoo.com will go up this afternoon, and a \(.2\) chance that both will go up this afternoon. What is the probability that either Amazon.com or Yahoo.com will go up this afternoon?

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