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A test has three parts. Part A consists of four true-false questions, Part B consists of four multiple choice questions with five choices each, and Part \(\mathrm{C}\) requires you to match six questions with six different answers one-to-one. Assuming that you make random choices in filling out your answer sheet, what is the probability that you will earn \(100 \%\) on the test? (Leave your answer as a formula.)

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability of earning a 100% on the test with random choices is \(\frac{1}{7{,}200{,}000}\).

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the probability of a perfect score in Part A

In this section, we have four true-false questions. Since there are two possibilities for each question (true or false), the probability of getting one question right is \(\frac{1}{2}\). All of the questions are independent; therefore, the probability of getting all questions right in this section is the product of the individual probabilities: \(\left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^4 = \frac{1}{16}\).
02

Calculate the probability of a perfect score in Part B

In this section, we have four multiple-choice questions with five choices each. The probability of answering one question correctly is \(\frac{1}{5}\), as there is only one correct answer out of five options. Since the questions are independent, the probability of getting all questions right in this section is the product of the individual probabilities: \(\left(\frac{1}{5}\right)^4 = \frac{1}{625}\).
03

Calculate the probability of a perfect score in Part C

In this section, we need to match six questions with six answers. The probability of matching the first question correctly is \(\frac{1}{6}\), as there is only one correct answer out of six options. After the first match, there are five options for the second question, so the probability of matching it correctly is \(\frac{1}{5}\). Similarly, the probabilities for the subsequent questions are \(\frac{1}{4}\), \(\frac{1}{3}\), \(\frac{1}{2}\), and \(1\). The probability of correctly matching all six questions is the product of these individual probabilities: \(\frac{1}{6} \times \frac{1}{5} \times \frac{1}{4} \times \frac{1}{3} \times \frac{1}{2} \times 1 = \frac{1}{720}\).
04

Calculate the overall probability of a perfect score

To find the overall probability of obtaining a perfect test score, we multiply the probabilities for each part: \(\frac{1}{16} \times \frac{1}{625} \times \frac{1}{720} = \frac{1}{7{,}200{,}000}\). Therefore, the probability of earning a 100% on the test with random choices is \(\frac{1}{7{,}200{,}000}\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

True-False Questions
When dealing with true-false questions, the objective is simple: determine whether a statement is either true or false. There are only two possible answers, which makes calculating probabilities straightforward.
However, it's important to remember that statistically, you will have a 50% chance of guessing each one correctly by random chance.

Here's how it works:
  • Each true-false question has exactly two possible answers.
  • The probability of getting one true-false question correct is \(\frac{1}{2}\) or 50%.
  • If there are multiple true-false questions, such as four questions in the case of our test, the probability of getting all questions correct is the product of the individual probabilities.

This means for four independent true-false questions, you multiply the probability of one correct answer by itself four times: \[\left( \frac{1}{2} \right)^4 = \frac{1}{16}.\]
This is because each question is independent of the others, meaning the outcome of one does not affect another. So, if you are guessing at random, the likelihood of a perfect score becomes quite low as more questions are added.
Multiple Choice Questions
Multiple choice questions are slightly more complex than true-false questions. In these questions, you are given several options to choose the correct answer from. This format is common in standardized testing.

Let’s break it down:
  • Each multiple choice question in our scenario has five possible answers.
  • Only one of those options is correct, giving a probability of \(\frac{1}{5}\) or 20% for each question if guessing.
  • As with true-false questions, if multiple questions are involved, the probability of getting all of them correct is the product of individual probabilities.

For four multiple choice questions:\[\left( \frac{1}{5} \right)^4 = \frac{1}{625}.\]
This demonstrates a more drastic drop in probability as compared to true-false, due to the increased number of options per question. Therefore, randomly guessing yields a much lower likelihood of achieving a perfect score in this section compared to true-false.
Matching Questions
Matching questions involve pairing a set of items correctly. These typically require a one-to-one matching from two groups. This type of question can be particularly tricky because the probabilities drastically reduce as you attempt to match items.

Here's the breakdown:
  • If there are six items to match, the probability of correctly matching the first pair is \(\frac{1}{6}\).
  • After the first match, the choices for the next item reduce, making it \(\frac{1}{5}\), and so on down to the last pair, which is deterministic at \(\frac{1}{1}\).
  • To find the overall probability of matching every item correctly, multiply the probabilities for each pick.

For six matching questions:\[\frac{1}{6} \times \frac{1}{5} \times \frac{1}{4} \times \frac{1}{3} \times \frac{1}{2} \times 1 = \frac{1}{720}.\]
This formula shows how quickly the odds diminish, illustrating the challenge of getting every item correct just by guessing. Matching questions require thoughtful consideration due to their increasingly minimal chances of success through random guessing.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Based on the following table, which shows the performance of a selection of 100 stocks after one year. (Take S to be the set of all stocks represented in the table.) $$ \begin{array}{|r|c|c|c|c|} \hline & \multicolumn{3}{|c|} {\text { Companies }} & \\ \cline { 2 - 4 } & \begin{array}{c} \text { Pharmaceutical } \\ \boldsymbol{P} \end{array} & \begin{array}{c} \text { Electronic } \\ \boldsymbol{E} \end{array} & \begin{array}{c} \text { Internet } \\ \boldsymbol{I} \end{array} & \text { Total } \\ \hline \begin{array}{r} \text { Increased } \\ \boldsymbol{V} \end{array} & 10 & 5 & 15 & 30 \\ \hline \begin{array}{r} \text { Unchanged }^{*} \\ \boldsymbol{N} \end{array} & 30 & 0 & 10 & 40 \\ \hline \begin{array}{r} \text { Decreased } \\ \boldsymbol{D} \end{array} & 10 & 5 & 15 & 30 \\ \hline \text { Total } & 50 & 10 & 40 & 100 \\ \hline \end{array} $$ If a stock stayed within \(20 \%\) of its original value, it is classified as "unchanged." Use symbols to describe the event that a stock's value increased but it was not an Internet stock. How many elements are in this event?

An applicant did not have a Math SAT below 400 .

Based on the following table, which shows the performance of a selection of 100 stocks after one year. (Take S to be the set of all stocks represented in the table.) $$ \begin{array}{|r|c|c|c|c|} \hline & \multicolumn{3}{|c|} {\text { Companies }} & \\ \cline { 2 - 4 } & \begin{array}{c} \text { Pharmaceutical } \\ \boldsymbol{P} \end{array} & \begin{array}{c} \text { Electronic } \\ \boldsymbol{E} \end{array} & \begin{array}{c} \text { Internet } \\ \boldsymbol{I} \end{array} & \text { Total } \\ \hline \begin{array}{r} \text { Increased } \\ \boldsymbol{V} \end{array} & 10 & 5 & 15 & 30 \\ \hline \begin{array}{r} \text { Unchanged }^{*} \\ \boldsymbol{N} \end{array} & 30 & 0 & 10 & 40 \\ \hline \begin{array}{r} \text { Decreased } \\ \boldsymbol{D} \end{array} & 10 & 5 & 15 & 30 \\ \hline \text { Total } & 50 & 10 & 40 & 100 \\ \hline \end{array} $$ If a stock stayed within \(20 \%\) of its original value, it is classified as "unchanged." Compute \(n\left(P^{\prime} \cup N\right)\). What does this number represent?

Tony has had a "losing streak" at the casino - the chances of winning the game he is playing are \(40 \%\), but he has lost five times in a row. Tony argues that, because he should have won two times, the game must obviously be "rigged." Comment on his reasoning.

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