/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 13 You are given a transition matri... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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You are given a transition matrix \(P\) and initial distribution vector \(v\). Find (a) the two-step transition matrix and (b) the distribution vectors after one, two, and three steps. $$ P=\left[\begin{array}{ll} .2 & .8 \\ .4 & .6 \end{array}\right], v=\left[\begin{array}{ll} .5 & .5 \end{array}\right] $$

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) The two-step transition matrix is: $$ P^2 = \left[\begin{array}{ll} .36 & .64 \\ .32 & .68 \end{array}\right] $$ (b) The distribution vectors after one, two, and three steps are: $$ vP = \left[\begin{array}{ll} .3 & .7 \end{array}\right]\\ vP^2 = \left[\begin{array}{ll} .34 & .66 \end{array}\right]\\ vP^3 = \left[\begin{array}{ll} .3 & .7 \end{array}\right] $$

Step by step solution

01

Compute the one-step distribution vector

Multiply the initial distribution vector \(v\) by the matrix \(P:\) \( vP = \left[\begin{array}{ll} .5 & .5 \end{array}\right] \left[\begin{array}{ll} .2 & .8 \\ .4 & .6 \end{array}\right]=\left[\begin{array}{ll} .3 & .7 \end{array}\right] \)
02

Compute the two-step transition matrix

Raise the transition matrix \(P\) to the power of 2 by multiplying it by itself: \(P^2 = P \cdot P = \left[\begin{array}{ll} .2 & .8 \\ .4 & .6 \end{array}\right] \left[\begin{array}{ll} .2 & .8 \\ .4 & .6 \end{array}\right]=\left[\begin{array}{ll} .36 & .64 \\ .32 & .68 \end{array}\right] \)
03

Compute the two-step distribution vector

Multiply the initial distribution vector \(v\) by the matrix \(P^2:\) \( vP^2 = \left[\begin{array}{ll} .5 & .5 \end{array}\right] \left[\begin{array}{ll} .36 & .64 \\ .32 & .68 \end{array}\right]=\left[\begin{array}{ll} .34 & .66 \end{array}\right] \)
04

Compute the three-step transition matrix

Raise the transition matrix \(P\) to the power of 3 by multiplying \(P^2\) by \(P:\) \(P^3 = P^2 \cdot P = \left[\begin{array}{ll} .36 & .64 \\ .32 & .68 \end{array}\right] \left[\begin{array}{ll} .2 & .8 \\ .4 & .6 \end{array}\right]=\left[\begin{array}{ll} .296 & .704 \\ .304 & .696 \end{array}\right] \)
05

Compute the three-step distribution vector

Multiply the initial distribution vector \(v\) by the matrix \(P^3:\) \( vP^3 = \left[\begin{array}{ll} .5 & .5 \end{array}\right] \left[\begin{array}{ll} .296 & .704 \\ .304 & .696 \end{array}\right]=\left[\begin{array}{ll} .3 & .7 \end{array}\right] \) From these steps, we have found our answers: (a) The two-step transition matrix is: $$ P^2 = \left[\begin{array}{ll} .36 & .64 \\ .32 & .68 \end{array}\right] $$ (b) The distribution vectors after one, two, and three steps are: $$ vP = \left[\begin{array}{ll} .3 & .7 \end{array}\right]\\ vP^2 = \left[\begin{array}{ll} .34 & .66 \end{array}\right]\\ vP^3 = \left[\begin{array}{ll} .3 & .7 \end{array}\right] $$

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Matrix Multiplication
Understanding matrix multiplication is crucial when working with transition matrices in Markov chains. It is the process by which we combine two matrices, say Matrix A and Matrix B, to produce another matrix, C. The key rule here is that the number of columns in Matrix A must be equal to the number of rows in Matrix B for the multiplication to be possible.

The element in the ith row and jth column of Matrix C is calculated by taking the dot product of the ith row of Matrix A and the jth column of Matrix B. This means we multiply corresponding elements and then sum them up. In the context of transition matrices, multiplying a distribution vector by the transition matrix gives us the probability distribution after one step.

Let's take a simplified example: If we have Matrix A as a 2x3 matrix and Matrix B as a 3x2 matrix, the resulting Matrix C will be a 2x2 matrix. The entire process is a cornerstone for working with Markov chains, which rely heavily on repeatedly multiplying the initial distribution vector by the transition matrix to find future distributions.
Distribution Vector
A distribution vector is a fundamental concept in the study of Markov chains. It represents the state of a system at a particular time point, with each element in the vector indicating the probability of the system being in a specific state. For example, if we have a system with two states, the distribution vector might look like this: \( v = [v_1, v_2] \), where \(v_1\) and \(v_2\) are the probabilities of being in state 1 and state 2, respectively, and they must sum to 1.

It's essential to start with a properly defined initial distribution vector to analyze how a system evolves over time. Multiplication of this vector with transition matrices allows us to see the probability distribution of the system's states after one or more steps, as clearly demonstrated in the step-by-step solution above.
Markov Chain
A Markov chain is a mathematical system that experiences transitions from one state to another on a state space. It is a random process that is characterized by the property of being memoryless, meaning the next state depends only on the current state and not on the sequence of events that preceded it.

Key to Markov chains is the use of transition matrices to describe the probabilities of moving from each state to every other state. These matrices, when multiplied by the distribution vectors, give us the new distribution vectors after each step. The power of Markov chains lies in predicting future states of the system under consideration. The transition matrix can be raised to higher powers, indicating multiple steps, and subsequent multiplication with the initial distribution vector yields the system's status at each step, as showcased in the exercise where we calculate up to three steps.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Based on the following table, which shows the performance of a selection of 100 stocks after one year. (Take S to be the set of all stocks represented in the table.) $$ \begin{array}{|r|c|c|c|c|} \hline & \multicolumn{3}{|c|} {\text { Companies }} & \\ \cline { 2 - 4 } & \begin{array}{c} \text { Pharmaceutical } \\ \boldsymbol{P} \end{array} & \begin{array}{c} \text { Electronic } \\ \boldsymbol{E} \end{array} & \begin{array}{c} \text { Internet } \\ \boldsymbol{I} \end{array} & \text { Total } \\ \hline \begin{array}{r} \text { Increased } \\ \boldsymbol{V} \end{array} & 10 & 5 & 15 & 30 \\ \hline \begin{array}{r} \text { Unchanged }^{*} \\ \boldsymbol{N} \end{array} & 30 & 0 & 10 & 40 \\ \hline \begin{array}{r} \text { Decreased } \\ \boldsymbol{D} \end{array} & 10 & 5 & 15 & 30 \\ \hline \text { Total } & 50 & 10 & 40 & 100 \\ \hline \end{array} $$ If a stock stayed within \(20 \%\) of its original value, it is classified as "unchanged." Use symbols to describe the event that a stock's value increased but it was not an Internet stock. How many elements are in this event?

A company wishes to enhance productivity by running a one-week training course for its employees. Let \(T\) be the event that an employee participated in the course, and let \(I\) be the event that an employee's productivity improved the week after the course was run. a. Assuming that the course has a positive effect on productivity, how are \(P(I \mid T)\) and \(P(I)\) related? b. If \(T\) and \(I\) are independent, what can one conclude about the training course?

Based on the following table, which shows U.S. employment figures for 2007, broken down by educational attainment. \(^{49}\) All numbers are in millions, and represent civilians aged 25 years and over. Those classed as "not in labor force " were not employed nor actively seeking employment. Round all answers to two decimal places. Find the probability that a person was employed, given that the person had attained less than a high school diploma.

Explain how the property \(P\left(A^{\prime}\right)=1-P(A)\) follows directly from the properties of a probability distribution.

\(\nabla\) Describe an experiment in which two coins are flipped and the set of outcomes is \(\\{0,1,2\\}\).

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