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Delta Air Lines quotes a flight time of 2 hours, 5 minutes for its flights from Cincinnati to Tampa. Suppose we believe that actual flight times are uniformly distributed between 2 hours and 2 hours, 20 minutes. a. Show the graph of the probability density function for flight time. b. What is the probability that the flight will be no more than 5 minutes late? c. What is the probability that the flight will be more than 10 minutes late? d. What is the expected flight time?

Short Answer

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a. Uniform distribution graph from 120 to 140 minutes. b. 0.25c. c. 0.5. d. 130 minutes.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Uniform Distribution

The problem states that the flight times are uniformly distributed between 2 hours (120 minutes) and 2 hours, 20 minutes (140 minutes). This type of distribution is known as a uniform distribution, where every outcome in this range is equally likely. We denote this as a uniform distribution from \(a = 120\) to \(b = 140\).
02

Graph the Probability Density Function

For a uniform distribution, the probability density function (PDF) is constant between \(a\) and \(b\) and zero otherwise. We calculate the height of the PDF by finding \(\frac{1}{b-a}\). Therefore, the height is \(\frac{1}{140-120} = \frac{1}{20}\). Graphically, this is a horizontal line at \(\frac{1}{20}\) from \(x = 120\) to \(x = 140\).
03

Calculate Probability for No More Than 5 Minutes Late

A flight is on time if it takes 125 minutes or less (2 hours, 5 minutes = 125 minutes). We find the probability that the flight takes 125 minutes or less. We use the formula for probability: \(P(X \leq x) = \frac{x-a}{b-a}\). Here, \(a = 120\), \(b = 140\), and \(x = 125\). Thus, \(P(X \leq 125) = \frac{125-120}{140-120} = \frac{5}{20} = 0.25\).
04

Calculate Probability for More Than 10 Minutes Late

A flight is more than 10 minutes late if it takes more than 130 minutes. We find the probability that the flight is greater than 130 minutes using the formula \(P(X > x) = 1 - P(X \leq x)\). Here, \(P(X \leq 130) = \frac{130-120}{140-120} = \frac{10}{20} = 0.5\). Thus, \(P(X > 130) = 1 - 0.5 = 0.5\).
05

Calculate the Expected Flight Time

For a uniform distribution, the expected value (mean) is calculated using the formula \(E(X) = \frac{a+b}{2}\). Substitute \(a = 120\) and \(b = 140\) to get \(E(X) = \frac{120+140}{2} = 130\) minutes.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Density Function
When dealing with uniform distributions, the probability density function (PDF) is pretty simple and straightforward. Think of it like a fair game: every possible outcome between two points is equally probable. For this particular case of flight times between 2 hours (120 minutes) and 2 hours, 20 minutes (140 minutes), each minute in that range is just as likely as the next.
To visualize this, the PDF is a horizontal line on a graph. This line stretches from our starting point, 120 minutes, to the ending point, 140 minutes. Because we have 20 equally likely minutes (from 120 to 140), the height of this line is calculated as \[ \frac{1}{b-a} \] or \[ \frac{1}{140-120} = \frac{1}{20}. \] This means that each minute has a probability of \( \frac{1}{20} \). Outside this range, the value of the PDF drops to zero, making sure we only consider times within the bounds we've set.
Expected Value
In statistics, the expected value is like the average or the mean of a probability distribution. For a uniform distribution, it’s easy to calculate. You're basically looking at the middle point between two values.
Here, our flight times span from 120 to 140 minutes. To find that middle point, we calculate \[ E(X) = \frac{a+b}{2} \]. So by plugging in our numbers, the expected flight time is \[ \frac{120+140}{2} = 130 \] minutes. This expected value, 130 minutes or 2 hours and 10 minutes, gives you an idea of the average flight time you might expect if the flights followed this pattern consistently. It helps in making predictions and planning based on the most likely average outcome.
Flight Time
Flight time variability can be modeled using different types of probability distributions. In our exercise, the uniform distribution was chosen.
The uniform distribution is especially handy when you know the minimum and maximum hours but aren't sure about what happens in between. Here, any minute from 120 to 140 is equally likely.
Let's dive into a couple of scenarios. Firstly, a flight is considered on schedule if it lands not more than 5 minutes past the scheduled time, i.e., by 125 minutes. The chance it meets this criterion is \( P(X \leq 125) = \frac{125-120}{140-120} = \frac{5}{20} = 0.25 \).Then, if you're wondering whether it might arrive more than 10 minutes late, you look at the chances it takes over 130 minutes. This is \( P(X > 130) = 1 - P(X \leq 130) = 1 - \frac{10}{20} = 0.5 \). That’s a 50% chance of being over 10 minutes late. These calculations show both punctuality and delays' probabilities, helping us better understand what to expect from the airline's schedule.

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