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A technician services mailing machines at companies in the Phoenix area. Depending on the type of malfunction, the service call can take one, two, three, or four hours. The different types of malfunctions occur at about the same frequency. a. Develop a probability distribution for the duration of a service call. b. Draw a graph of the probability distribution. c. Show that your probability distribution satisfies the conditions required for a discrete probability function. d. What is the probability that a service call will take three hours? e. A service call has just come in, but the type of malfunction is unknown. It is 3: 00 P.M. and service technicians usually get off at 5: 00 P.M. What is the probability that the service technician will have to work overtime to fix the machine today?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) Equal probability for 1, 2, 3, 4 hours: 0.25 each. b) Distribution graph: bars at height 0.25. c) Conditions satisfied. d) Probability for 3 hours: 0.25. e) Overtime probability: 0.5.

Step by step solution

01

Identify Possible Outcomes

The service call can take one, two, three, or four hours. Hence, the possible outcomes are 1, 2, 3, and 4 hours.
02

Assign Equal Probabilities for Each Outcome

Since each type of malfunction occurs with equal frequency, each duration is equally probable. Thus, the probability of each duration is \( \frac{1}{4} = 0.25 \).
03

Probability Distribution Table

Construct a probability distribution table with the duration as the variable \( x \) and probability as \( P(x) \):\[ \begin{array}{c|c}\text{Duration (hours) } x & \text{Probability } P(x) \\hline1 & 0.25 \2 & 0.25 \3 & 0.25 \4 & 0.25 \\end{array} \]
04

Draw Probability Distribution Graph

Create a bar graph with durations on the x-axis and probabilities on the y-axis. Each duration (1, 2, 3, 4) should have a bar with a height of 0.25.
05

Check Conditions for Discrete Probability Distribution

Verify the conditions:1. All probabilities are between 0 and 1.2. The sum of probabilities is 1. \( 0.25 + 0.25 + 0.25 + 0.25 = 1 \). Both conditions are satisfied.
06

Compute Probability for Three-Hour Duration

From the probability distribution, the probability that a service call will take three hours is \( P(3) = 0.25 \).
07

Probability of Overtime

For the technician to work overtime, the service must take more than 2 hours. Thus, the probability is \( P(3) + P(4) = 0.25 + 0.25 = 0.5 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Discrete Probability Function
A discrete probability function is a fundamental concept in probability theory. It gives us a way to assign probabilities to outcomes in a scenario where outcomes are countable and distinct. In this exercise, the duration of a service call is given as either 1, 2, 3, or 4 hours. This means the outcomes are finite, making it a perfect example of a discrete setting.

To develop a discrete probability function, each distinct outcome must be assigned a probability. Here, all outcomes (1, 2, 3, and 4 hours) are equally likely because each malfunction type occurs with the same frequency. Thus, the probability for each is calculated by dividing 1 by the number of outcomes. Since there are 4 possible outcomes, the probability of each is \( \frac{1}{4} = 0.25 \). This ensures that the total probability across all possible outcomes is 1, satisfying one of the key conditions of a valid discrete probability function.

Remember, when constructing a probability distribution function for discrete variables, it's essential that:
  • All probabilities must lie between 0 and 1.
  • The sum of all probabilities equals 1.
Probability Graph
A probability graph provides a visual representation of a probability distribution. For discrete distributions, one of the simplest ways to create this graph is by using a bar graph. In our current exercise, the probability graph illustrates the likelihood of different durations for a service call.

To construct a bar graph in this context:
  • The x-axis represents the duration of the service call (1, 2, 3, or 4 hours).
  • The y-axis shows the probability associated with each duration, which is 0.25 in this case.
  • Beneath each duration value on the x-axis, place a vertical bar with a height corresponding to its probability (0.25).
This approach visually reinforces the equal probability of all durations. The heights of the bars make it immediately clear that each duration is equally likely. Good graphs are not just about correctness but also about clear and effective communication of the data they present.
Probability Table
A probability table is an organized way to present data, displaying variables and their corresponding probabilities. In our exercise, the probability table captures the information about how long a service call might take and the probability of each duration.

This table is set up as follows:
  • The first column lists the possible outcomes, which in this case, are service call durations: 1, 2, 3, and 4 hours.
  • The second column lists the probabilities associated with each outcome: all are 0.25.
Such a table not only simplifies the information but also highlights the key characteristics of a discrete probability distribution. Namely, it is easy to see that each event has an equal probability and that together, the probabilities sum to 1. This reinforces the comprehensive nature of the probability function.

Understanding probability tables is crucial because they provide a quick reference for decision-making, such as determining the likelihood of various outcomes. Additionally, they serve as a foundational tool for building more advanced statistical models.

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