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91Ó°ÊÓ

A survey of magazine subscribers showed that \(45.8 \%\) rented a car during the past 12 months for business reasons, \(54 \%\) rented a car during the past 12 months for personal reasons, and \(30 \%\) rented a car during the past 12 months for both business and personal reasons. a. What is the probability that a subscriber rented a car during the past 12 months for business or personal reasons? b. What is the probability that a subscriber did not rent a car during the past 12 months for either business or personal reasons?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. 69.8% b. 30.2%

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

We know that two percentages are given for renting cars for different reasons: 45.8% for business and 54% for personal. Additionally, 30% of subscribers rented for both purposes. We need to find the probability related to renting either for business or personal (part a) and not renting at all (part b).
02

Identify the Formula for Part (a)

The probability of renting a car for business or personal reasons is given by the union of two events. Formula: \( P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B) \), where \(P(A)\) is the probability of renting for business, \(P(B)\) is the probability of renting for personal reasons, and \(P(A \cap B)\) is the probability of renting for both.
03

Calculate the Probability for Part (a)

Substitute the known values into the formula: \( P(A \cup B) = 0.458 + 0.54 - 0.3 \). Simplify to find \( P(A \cup B) = 0.698 \). This means 69.8% rented for either business or personal reasons.
04

Find the Complement for Part (b)

To find the probability that a subscriber did not rent for either reason, use the complement rule: \( 1 - P(A \cup B) \).
05

Calculate the Probability for Part (b)

Substitute the calculated union probability: \( 1 - 0.698 = 0.302 \). This means 30.2% did not rent for either reason.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Survey Analysis
Surveys are essential tools in statistical research. They allow us to gather large amounts of information and make informed predictions about a population.
In this exercise, a survey was conducted among magazine subscribers to understand their car rental habits. The survey found the percentages of subscribers who rented cars for business, personal, and both reasons over the past 12 months.
Understanding these percentages is crucial. It helps us identify trends and patterns in consumer behavior. Some key points when conducting and analyzing surveys include:
  • Clearly define the purpose of the survey to collect relevant data.
  • Use a representative sample to ensure reliability and validity.
  • Analyze data accurately to interpret results correctly.
By examining this data, businesses and researchers can make decisions about potential marketing strategies or service enhancements. This specific survey helps companies understand the overlap in consumer needs, such as the dual purpose of business and personal travel.
Complement Rule
The Complement Rule is a fundamental concept in probability that makes it easier to calculate the probability of an event not occurring.
In mathematical terms, if you want to find the probability that an event does not happen, you subtract the event's probability from one.
Mathematically, it is expressed as: \[ P(A') = 1 - P(A) \] Where \(P(A')\) is the probability of the event not occurring, and \(P(A)\) is the probability of the event occurring.
This rule was applied in this exercise to find out the probability that a subscriber did not rent a car for either business or personal reasons. After calculating the probability for those who did rent for either reason using the union of events, the complement gives us the remaining subscribers who did not rent for either purpose.
  • Use the complement rule for easier computation when the event in question is complex to calculate directly.
  • Always ensure the total probability sums to one when using complements.

This method is both efficient and powerful, reducing the effort needed in calculating probabilities that might otherwise require additional, complicated steps.
Event Union Probability
Probability can sometimes involve complex overlaps of events, such as in this survey example. This is where Event Union Probability becomes important.
Event Union Probability helps in understanding the likelihood of at least one event, among several, occurring. Using a union allows the calculation to account for any overlap between events.
The formula for the probability of the union of two events \(A\) and \(B\) is: \[ P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B) \] Where \(P(A)\) is the probability of event \(A\) occurring, \(P(B)\) is the probability of event \(B\) occurring, and \(P(A \cap B)\) is the probability of both events occurring simultaneously.
In this specific exercise, calculating the event union probability allowed us to find the chance that a subscriber rented a car for either business or personal reasons.
  • This technique accounts for double-counting in overlapping cases.
  • It's widely used when the intersection of events can't be ignored in probability calculations.
Understanding this concept makes it easier to analyze probabilities where events might overlap, ensuring accurate statistical interpretations in surveys and other studies.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Statistics from the 2009 Major League Baseball season show that there were 157 players who had at least 500 plate appearances. For this group, 42 players had a batting average of 300 or higher, 53 players hit 25 or more home runs, and 14 players had a batting average of .300 or higher and hit 25 or more home runs. Only four players had 200 or more hits (ESPN website, January 10,2010 ). Use the 157 players who had at least 500 plate appearances to answer the following questions. a. What is the probability that a randomly selected player had a batting average of .300 or higher? b. What is the probability that a randomly selected player hit 25 or more home runs? c. Are the events having a batting average of .300 or higher and hitting 25 or more home runs mutually exclusive? d. What is the probability that a randomly selected player had a batting average of .300 or higher or hit 25 or more home runs? e. What is the probability that a randomly selected player had 200 or more hits? Does obtaining 200 or more hits appear to be more difficult than hitting 25 or more home runs? Explain.

Do you think the government protects investors adequately? This question was part of an online survey of investors under age 65 living in the United States and Great Britain (Financial Times/Harris Poll, October 1,2009 ). The number of investors from the United States and the number of investors from Great Britain who answered Yes, No, or Unsure to this question are provided as follows. a. Estimate the probability that an investor living in the United States thinks the government is not protecting investors adequately. b. Estimate the probability that an investor living in Great Britain thinks the government is not protecting investors adequately or is unsure the government is protecting investors adequately. c. For a randomly selected investor from these two countries, estimate the probability that the investor thinks the government is not protecting investors adequately. d. Based upon the survey results, does there appear to be much difference between the perceptions of investors living in the United States and investors living in Great Britain regarding the issue of the government protecting investors adequately?

A decision maker subjectively assigned the following probabilities to the four outcomes of an experiment: \(P\left(E_{1}\right)=.10, P\left(E_{2}\right)=.15, P\left(E_{3}\right)=.40,\) and \(P\left(E_{4}\right)=.20 .\) Are these probability assignments valid? Explain.

Jerry Stackhouse of the National Basketball Association's Dallas Mavericks is the best freethrow shooter on the team, making \(89 \%\) of his shots (ESPN website, July, 2008 ). Assume that late in a basketball game, Jerry Stackhouse is fouled and is awarded two shots. a. What is the probability that he will make both shots? b. What is the probability that he will make at least one shot? c. What is the probability that he will miss both shots? d. Late in a basketball game, a team often intentionally fouls an opposing player in order to stop the game clock. The usual strategy is to intentionally foul the other team's worst free-throw shooter. Assume that the Dallas Mavericks' center makes \(58 \%\) of his free-throw shots. Calculate the probabilities for the center as shown in parts (a), (b), and (c), and show that intentionally fouling the Dallas Mavericks' center is a better strategy than intentionally fouling Jerry Stackhouse.

The Wall Street Journal/Harris Personal Finance poll asked 2082 adults if they owned a home (All Business website, January 23,2008 ). A total of 1249 survey respondents answered Yes. Of the 450 respondents in the \(18-34\) age group, 117 responded Yes. a. What is the probability that a respondent to the poll owned a home? b. What is the probability that a respondent in the \(18-34\) age group owned a home? c. What is the probability that a respondent to the poll did not own a home? d. What is the probability that a respondent in the \(18-34\) age group did not own a home?

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