/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 19 The undergraduate grade point av... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

91Ó°ÊÓ

The undergraduate grade point average (GPA) for students accepted at a random sample of 10 medical schools in the United States was taken. The mean GPA for these accepted students was \(3.75\) with a standard error of \(0.06\). The distribution of undergraduate GPAs is Normal. (Source: Accepted.com) a. Decide whether each of the following statements is worded correctly for the confidence interval. Fill in the blanks for the correctly worded one(s). Explain the error for the ones that are incorrectly worded. i. We are \(95 \%\) confident that the sample mean is between ____ \(-\) and ____. ii. We are \(95 \%\) confident that the population mean is between ____. iii. There is a \(95 \%\) probability that the population mean is between ____ and ____. b. Based on your confidence interval, would you believe that the population mean GPA is \(3.80\) ? Why or why not?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The confidence intervals are as follows: Statement i is incorrectly worded, as the sample mean is a constant number, not a range. Statement ii is correctly worded, with the confidence interval being 3.63 to 3.87. Statement iii is also incorrect, as it incorrectly assumes predicting a specific future outcome. Based on the confidence interval, claiming that the population mean GPA is 3.80 is believable, as it falls within the interval.

Step by step solution

01

Creating the Confidence Interval

Using the information provided, a \(95\%\) confidence interval around the sample mean can be calculated \(mean ± z*SE\), where \(z\) is the Z-score, \(SE\) is the standard error. For a \(95\%\) confidence interval, the Z-score is approximately \(1.96\). Plugging in the numbers given by the task, we get: \(3.75 ± 1.96*0.06\) . This results in a confidence interval from \(3.63\) to \(3.87\).
02

Explaining correct and incorrect phrasings

i. This statement is incorrectly worded. The confidence interval relates to the population mean. The sample mean is a fixed value—here it is 3.75—it does not fall within a range. \nii. This is correctly worded. We are \(95\%\) confident that the population mean is between 3.63 and 3.87. \niii. This statement is false as it implies predicting a specific future outcome of the population mean. A confidence interval does not predict individual outcomes, rather it estimates the range within which the population mean may lie with a certain level of confidence.
03

Interpreting the Confidence Interval

Given the calculated confidence interval (3.63 to 3.87), we can say with \(95\%\) confidence that the population mean lies within these boundaries. So if someone argues that the population mean GPA is 3.80, this claim is quite believable as it falls within the limits of the confidence interval.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Standard Error
The standard error (SE) is a measure that indicates the accuracy with which a sample mean estimates the population mean. It essentially quantifies the variation in sample means you might expect to see due to random chance if you were to take multiple samples from the same population.

When calculating confidence intervals, a smaller standard error means our estimate of the population mean will be more precise because there is less variability among sample means. It’s important to note that the standard error decreases as the sample size increases, indicating that larger samples tend to give more reliable estimates of the population parameter.

In the context of GPA for medical school students, the standard error tells us that if we were to take many random samples of 10 medical schools, the mean GPAs from those samples would typically vary from the true population mean by about 0.06, assuming there were no other sources of error.
Normal Distribution
The normal distribution is a bell-shaped curve that is symmetric about the mean and describes how the values of a variable are distributed. Most values cluster around the central peak, and the probabilities for values further away from the mean taper off symmetrically in both directions.

This distribution is important in the context of confidence intervals because, under certain conditions (such as a large enough sample size), the distribution of sample means tends to be normally distributed, regardless of the shape of the population distribution. This result is thanks to the Central Limit Theorem.

In our exercise, it's assumed that the distribution of undergraduate GPAs is normal, which allows us to apply normal distribution properties when calculating confidence intervals and makes the Z-score a suitable measure for constructing intervals.
Z-score
A Z-score is a statistical measurement that describes a value's relationship to the mean of a group of values, measured in terms of standard deviations from the mean. When it comes to confidence intervals, the Z-score gives us a way to state how many standard errors away from the sample mean we must go to capture the central portion of the normal distribution.

For a 95% confidence interval, we typically use a Z-score of about 1.96, which indicates that the interval extends 1.96 standard errors above and below the sample mean. This Z-score corresponds to the central 95% of the normal distribution, which means there is a 2.5% chance that the true population mean could be above or below this range due to random sampling variability.
Population Mean
The population mean is the average of all the individual values in the entire population. It is a fixed but often unknown value, and in many cases, it's the parameter we're trying to estimate when we collect data from a sample.

In this exercise, while we don't know the actual population mean GPA for all medical students, we can estimate it using our sample data and construct a confidence interval to express our certainty about this estimate. It’s critical to comprehend that a confidence interval gives us a range where we expect the population mean to lie, not just a single value.
Sample Mean
The sample mean, on the other hand, is the average of just the values in the sample. It's our best estimate of the population mean based on the data we have at hand. The sample mean is a known value calculated directly from the sample data.

In our example, the sample mean is the average GPA of students accepted into 10 randomly selected medical schools. This mean (3.75) serves as the center point around which we build our confidence interval to estimate the population mean, considering the standard error and the normal distribution.
Statistical Significance
Statistical significance refers to the likelihood that a relationship observed in a data set is caused by something other than random chance. When testing hypotheses, if results are statistically significant, this means we have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis (which typically states that there is no effect or no difference).

In the context of confidence intervals, when we say we're 95% confident, we're asserting that if we were to draw many samples and construct confidence intervals in the same way, 95% of these intervals would contain the population mean. It's critical, however, not to conflate this with the idea that there's a 95% probability that this specific interval contains the population mean. That percentage reflects confidence in the process over many iterations, not the certainty of a single interval's accuracy.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Suppose that 200 statistics students each took a random sample (with replacement) of 50 students at their college and recorded the ages of the students in their sample. Then each student used his or her data to calculate a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the mean age of all students at the college. How many of the 200 intervals would you expect to capture the true population mean age, and how many would you expect not to capture the true population mean? Explain by showing your calculation.

State whether each situation has independent or paired (dependent) samples. a. A researcher wants to know whether pulse rates of people go down after brief meditation. She collects the pulse rates of a random sample of people before meditation and then collects their pulse rates after meditation. b. A researcher wants to know whether professors with tenure have fewer posted office hours than professors without tenure do. She observes the number of office hours posted on the doors of tenured and untenured professors.

The distribution of the scores on a certain exam is \(N(100,10)\) which means that the exam scores are Normally distributed with a mean of 100 and a standard deviation of \(10 .\) a. Sketch or use technology to create the curve and label on the \(x\) -axis the position of the mean, the mean plus or minus one standard deviation, the mean plus or minus two standard deviations, and the mean plus or minus three standard deviations. b. Find the probability that a randomly selected score is between 90 and \(110 .\) Shade the region under the Normal curve whose area corresponds to this probability.

The weights of four randomly and independently selected bags of tomatoes labeled 5 pounds were found to be \(5.1\), \(5.0,5.3\), and \(5.1\) pounds. Assume Normality. a. Find a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the mean weight of all bags of tomatoes. b. Does the interval capture \(5.0\) pounds? Is there enough evidence to reject a mean weight of \(5.0\) pounds?

According to a 2017 report by ComScore .com, the mean time spent on smartphones daily by the American adults is \(2.85\) hours. Assume this is correct and assume the standard deviation is \(1.4\) hours. a. Suppose 150 American adults are randomly surveyed and asked how long they spend on their smartphones daily. The mean of the sample is recorded. Then we repeat this process, taking 1000 surveys of 150 American adults and recording the sample means. What will be the shape of the distribution of these sample means? b. Refer to part (a). What will be the mean and the standard deviation of the distribution of these sample means?

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