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The mother of a teenager has heard a claim that \(25 \%\) of teenagers who drive and use a cell phone reported texting while driving. She thinks that this rate is too high and wants to test the hypothesis that fewer than \(25 \%\) of these drivers have texted while driving. Her alternative hypothesis is that the percentage of teenagers who have texted when driving is less than \(25 \%\).$$\begin{aligned} &\mathrm{H}_{0}: p=0.25 \\\&\mathrm{H}_{\mathrm{a}}: p<0.25\end{aligned}$$ She polls 40 randomly selected teenagers, and 5 of them report having texted while driving, a proportion of \(0.125 .\) The p-value is \(0.034\). Explain the meaning of the p-value in the context of this question.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The p-value of \(0.034\) signifies a \(3.4\%\) chance of observing a sample proportion of \(12.5\%\) or less if the true proportion is \(25\%\). This indicates a fairly low likelihood of such an observation occurring by random chance if the actual proportion is indeed \(25\%.\) Therefore, the mother's suspicion that the rate may be less than \(25\%\) is statistically supported by this sample data.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Hypotheses

The null hypothesis (\(\mathrm{H}_{0}\)) claims that the proportion of teenagers who text while driving is 25% (\(p=0.25\)). The alternative hypothesis (\(\mathrm{H}_{\mathrm{a}}\)) suggests that the proportion is less than 25% (\(p<0.25\)). The mother thinks that the actual rate is less than 25%, so she is hoping to reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis.
02

Consider the Sample

A random sample of 40 teenagers was taken with 5 of them reporting having texted while driving. This gives a sample proportion of \(0.125\) or \(12.5\%\).
03

Interpret the P-Value

The p-value of \(0.034\) is the probability that we would observe a statistic as extreme as, or more extreme than, our observed sample proportion of \(12.5\%\) if the null hypothesis is true (if the actual proportion is \(25\%\)). In this context, it means there is a \(3.4\%\) chance of getting a sample proportion of \(12.5\%\) (or less) by random chance alone if the actual proportion is truly \(25\%\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null Hypothesis
The null hypothesis, represented by \( H_0 \), is a statement used in statistics that indicates there is no effect or no difference, and it's the hypothesis we presume to be true before conducting a test. It is essentially the skepticism that prompts the need for scientific testing.

In context to the scenario, the null hypothesis is that the true proportion \( p \) of teenagers who text while driving is 25% (\( p = 0.25 \)). This is not a claim that conclusively states the rate is 25% but rather a starting point for analysis. The premise of hypothesis testing is to assess whether there is enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis in favor of a more specific alternative hypothesis.

Statistical tests, including the one concerning the texting teenagers, are designed to assess the probability that the observed data or something more extreme would occur if the null hypothesis were true. If this probability is low enough, the null hypothesis is rejected, which suggests that the alternative hypothesis may be a better explanation of the observed data.
Alternative Hypothesis
The alternative hypothesis, denoted as \( H_a \) or \( H_1 \), presents an assertion that counters the null hypothesis, typically reflecting the specific effect or difference that the researcher suspects or wants to prove. It is what you would believe to be true if you reject the null hypothesis.

In the case of the teenager's mother, her alternative hypothesis is that fewer than 25% of those who drive and use a cell phone report texting while driving, mathematically expressed as \( H_a: p < 0.25 \). She expects that the actual proportion is less than the null hypothesis suggests.

When a researcher has a strong reason to predict the direction of an effect, they may use a directional alternative hypothesis, as seen here. The data collected from a relevant sample will then be used to determine whether there is support for preferring the alternative hypothesis over the null hypothesis. This is often done through a process known as p-value calculation.
P-Value
The p-value stands as one of the most pivotal concepts in hypothesis testing. It is a probability score that helps us determine the significance of our findings. The p-value tells us how likely it is to observe a statistic equal to, or more extreme than, the one we observed from our sample if the null hypothesis of no effect were true.

In this scenario, the p-value is \(0.034\), which means there is a 3.4% probability of finding a sample proportion as extreme as 12.5% or lower assuming the null proportion is actually 25%. A low p-value indicates that the observed data are unlikely under the assumption that the null hypothesis is true, and thus provides evidence against the null hypothesis.

Typically, a p-value lower than a predetermined alpha level, say 0.05 or 5%, suggests strong evidence to reject the null hypothesis. Therefore, with a p-value of \(0.034\), the mother has a statistically significant reason to reject the null hypothesis that the proportion of teenage drivers who have texted while driving is \(25\%\).
Sample Proportion
Sample proportion is a statistic that estimates the proportion of elements in a sample that are representatives of a specific attribute. It's derived by dividing the number of sample elements exhibiting the attribute by the total number of elements in the sample.

In the example we're exploring, the sample proportion equates to the number of teenagers who self-reported texting while driving (5) divided by the total number surveyed (40), yielding a proportion of \(0.125\) or 12.5%. This figure is an empirical estimate of the true proportion in the population based on the sampled data.

It is important to remember that sample proportions can be subject to sampling error, meaning the proportion you calculate from one sample might differ from another random sample. The validity of the sample proportion as an estimate for the true population proportion depends largely on the randomness and representativeness of the sample. When properly sampled, the sample proportion can provide convincing insights into the proportion of a population with a certain attribute and therefore is a critical statistic in hypothesis testing.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

In the Pew Research social media survey, television viewers were asked if it would be very hard to give up watching television. In \(2002,38 \%\) responded yes. In \(2018,31 \%\) said it would be very hard to give up watching television. a. Assume that both polls used samples of 200 people. Do a test to see whether the proportion of people who reported it would be very hard to give up watching television was significantly different in 2002 and 2018 using a \(0.05\) significance level. b. Repeat the problem, now assuming the sample sizes were both 2000 . (The actual sample size in 2018 was \(2002 .\).) c. Comment on the effect of different sample sizes on the p-value and on the conclusion.

In each case. choose whether the appropriate test is a one-proportion \(z\) -test or a two-proportion z-test. Name the population(s). a. A researcher takes a random sample of 4 -year-olds to find out whether girls or boys are more likely to know the alphabet. b. A pollster takes a random sample of all U.S. adult voters to see whether more than \(50 \%\) approve of the performance of the current U.S. president. c. A researcher wants to know whether a new heart medicine reduces the rate of heart attacks compared to an old medicine. d. A pollster takes a poll in Wyoming about homeschooling to find out whether the approval rate for men is equal to the approval rate for women. e. A person is studied to see whether he or she can predict the results of coin flips better than chance alone.

The National Association for Law Placement estimated that \(86.7 \%\) of law school graduates in 2015 found employment. An economist thinks the current employment rate for law school graduates is different from the 2015 rate. Pick the correct pair of hypotheses the economist could use to test this claim. \(\begin{aligned} \text { i. } \mathrm{H}_{0}: p \neq 0.867 & \text { ii. } \mathrm{H}_{0}: p &=0.867 \\ \mathrm{H}_{\mathrm{a}}: p=0.867 & \mathrm{H}_{\mathrm{a}}: p &>0.867 \\ \text { iii. } \mathrm{H}_{0}: p=0.867 & \text { iv. } \mathrm{H}_{0}: p &=0.867 \\ \mathrm{H}_{\mathrm{a}}: p<0.867 & \mathrm{H}_{\mathrm{a}}: p & \neq 0.867 \end{aligned}\)

When, in a criminal court, a defendant is found "not guilty," is the court saying with certainty that he or she is innocent? Explain.

In the mid-1800s, Dr. Ignaz Semmelweiss decided to make doctors wash their hands with a strong disinfectant between patients at a clinic with a death rate of \(9.9 \%\). Semmelweiss wanted to test the hypothesis that the death rate would go down after the new handwashing procedure was used. What null and alternative hypotheses should he have used? Explain, using both words and symbols. Explain the meaning of any symbols you use.

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