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91Ó°ÊÓ

A study is done to see whether a coin is biased. The alternative hypothesis used is two-sided, and the obtained \(z\) -value is 1 . Assuming that the sample size is sufficiently large and that the other conditions are also satisfied, use the Empirical Rule to approximate the p-value.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Approximate p-value is 0.16.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the z-value

We have z-value of 1. This z-value represents that the data is at one standard deviation away from the mean in a normal distribution.
02

Empirical Rule Interpretation

Consider the empirical rule i.e., 68-95-99.7 rule. This rule states that approximately 68% of the data falls within the first standard deviation (between -1 and 1 z-score), 95% falls within two standard deviations (between -2 and 2 z-score), and 99.7% falls within three standard deviations (between -3 and 3 z-scores). Hence, between z-score of -1 and 1, 68% of the data lies.
03

Two-sided Tail Probability Calculation

As we have a two-sided alternative hypothesis, we split the remaning percentage (that is not covered within the interval -1 to 1) on both tails. The total area under the normal curve is 100%. Therefore, the area left on both tails is calculated as 100% - 68% = 32%. Given that we have two tails in this case, we divide this percentage by 2. It becomes 32% / 2 = 16%.
04

Convert Probability into Decimal for p-value

The p-value is represented in decimal format. So, the percentage obtained in the previous step is converted into decimal (16% in decimal is 0.16). Hence, the p-value approximately equals 0.16.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

P-value Calculation
To understand p-value calculation, it's crucial to comprehend what a p-value actually signifies. The p-value measures the probability of obtaining an observed or more extreme result when the null hypothesis is true. It's a tool that helps us determine the strength of the evidence against the null hypothesis. In our example, we had a z-value of 1. Using the Empirical Rule, we found that the probability of our observation occurring within the range of the mean plus or minus one standard deviation is around 68%. That means 32% falls outside that range. With testing being two-sided, we consider both tails, thus each tail has a probability of 16%. Once expressed in decimal form, the p-value becomes 0.16. So, the smaller the p-value, the stronger the evidence against the null hypothesis. Typically, if the p-value is below a certain threshold (often 0.05), it suggests a significant effect, prompting us to reject the null hypothesis.
Two-sided Hypothesis Testing
In two-sided hypothesis testing, we examine whether our observed data significantly differs in either direction from the assumed distribution under the null hypothesis. This approach is used when deviations that are higher or lower could both be considered significant. For instance, while investigating the fairness of a coin, a two-sided test allows us to detect any bias towards heads or tails. The tails in a normal distribution curve correspond to extreme values that differ significantly from the mean. Thus, in our scenario, by considering both tails with probabilities of 16% each, we ensure that both directions of bias are analyzed. Ultimately, a two-sided hypothesis helps in being comprehensive, ensuring no directional bias goes unnoticed. This provides a full picture of the potential deviations from the null hypothesis assumption.
Normal Distribution
Normal distribution is a fundamental concept in statistics, often referred to as the bell curve due to its shape. It describes how the values of a variable are distributed around the mean. This symmetric distribution is characterized by most data points clustering around the center and fewer data points appearing as you move away. The normal distribution is crucial for understanding standard deviations. In our exercise, the z-value of 1 indicated that our observation is one standard deviation away from the mean. Using the Empirical Rule (68-95-99.7 rule), it shows how data is distributed around the mean in a normal distribution, helping in making approximate calculations about the data spread. Understanding normal distribution is essential as it forms the basis for many statistical tests and assumptions, aiding in making informed decisions based on data analyses.
Z-value Interpretation
Z-value, also known as a z-score, is the number of standard deviations a data point is from the mean of a set of data. It puts variables from different units into a common scale without units. This means if you have a z-value of 1, like in our case, the observed value is one standard deviation away from the mean. Z-values are essential in determining the relative position of data points within a normal distribution. They help in identifying how far or close an observation is to the mean. For hypothesis testing, a z-value helps determine the tail probabilities, which are then used for p-value calculations. Accurate interpretation of a z-value empowers us to make more precise statistical conclusions, such as understanding whether a result is within or outside the expected variation range. This interprets data effectively, highlighting significant deviations worth investigating further.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Pew Research published survey results from two random samples. Both samples were asked, "Have you listened to an audio book in the last year?" The results are shown in the table below. $$\begin{aligned}&\begin{array}{l}\text { Listened to an audio } \\\\\text { book }\end{array} & \mathbf{2 0 1 5} & \mathbf{2 0 1 8} & \text { Total } \\ &\hline \text { Yes } & 229 & 360 & 589 \\\&\hline \text { No } & 1677 & 1642 & 3319 \\\&\hline \text { Total } & 1906 & 2002 & \\ &\hline\end{aligned}$$ a. Find and compare the sample proportions that had listened to an audio book for these two groups. b. Are a greater proportion listening to audio books in 2018 compared to 2015 ? Test the hypothesis that a greater proportion of people listened to an audio book in 2018 than in \(2015 .\) Use a \(0.05\) significance level.

Pew Research reported that in the 2016 presidential election, \(53 \%\) of all male voters voted for Trump and \(41 \%\) voted for Clinton. Among all women voters, \(42 \%\) voted for Trump and \(54 \%\) voted for Clinton. Would it be appropriate to do a two-proportion \(z\) -test to determine whether the proportions of men and women who voted for Trump were significantly different (assuming we knew the number of men and women who voted)? Explain.

A researcher studying extrasensory perception (ESP) tests 300 students. Each student is asked to predict the outcome of a large number of coin flips. For each student, a hypothesis test using a \(5 \%\) significance level is performed. If the \(\mathrm{p}\) -value is less than or equal to \(0.05\), the researcher concludes that the student has ESP. Assuming that none of the 300 students actually have ESP, about how many would you expect the researcher to conclude do have ESP? Explain.

In 2016 the Harris poll estimated that \(3.3 \%\) of American adults are vegetarian. A nutritionist thinks this rate has increased. The nutritionist samples 150 American adults and finds that 11 are vegetarian. a. What is \(\hat{p}\), the sample proportion of vegetarians? b. What is \(p_{0}\), the hypothetical proportion of vegetarians? c. Find the value of the test statistic. Explain the test statistic in context.

A true/false test has 50 questions. Suppose a passing grade is 35 or more correct answers. Test the claim that a student knows more than half of the answers and is not just guessing. Assume the student gets 35 answers correct out of \(50 .\) Use a significance level of \(0.05 .\) Steps 1 and 2 of a hypothesis test procedure are given. Show steps 3 and 4, and be sure to write a clear conclusion. Step $$\text { 1: } \begin{aligned}&\mathrm{H}_{0}: p=0.50 \\\&\mathrm{H}_{\mathrm{a}}: p>0.50\end{aligned}$$ Step 2: Choose the one-proportion \(z\) -test. Sample size is large enough, because \(n p_{0}\) is \(50(0.5)=25\) and \(n\left(1-p_{0}\right)=50(0.50)=25\), and both are more than \(10 .\) Assume the sample is random and \(\alpha=0.05\).

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