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91Ó°ÊÓ

Suppose it is known that \(20 \%\) of students at a certain college participate in a textbook recycling program each semester. a. If a random sample of 50 students is selected, do we expect that exactly \(20 \%\) of the sample participates in the textbook recycling program? Why or why not? b. Suppose we take a sample of 500 students and find the sample proportion participating in the recycling program. Which sample proportion do you think is more likely to be closer to \(20 \%\) : the proportion from a sample size of 50 or the proportion from a sample size of \(500 ?\) Explain your reasoning.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. No, it is not necessarily expected that exactly \(20\%\) of the sample participates in the textbook recycling program due to sampling variability. b. The sample proportion from a sample size of 500 is more likely to be closer to \(20\%\) because, according to the law of large numbers, as the sample size increases, the sample result is more likely to be closer to the population parameter.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Proportions

The proportion of students participating in the textbook recycling program is \(20\%\) in the entire college. However, this does not necessarily mean that a random sample of 50 students will also show \(20\%\) participation. This is due to sampling variability. Each sample is likely to yield a slightly different result.
02

Effect of Sample Size

Even though it’s unlikely that the sample of 50 students will have exactly \(20\%\) participation, we would expect the proportion to be around \(20\%\). The actual percentage could easily be a bit more or less than \(20\%\), due to the inherent variability in random sampling.
03

Comparing Sample Sizes

For the second part of the question, according to the law of large numbers, the larger the sample size, the more likely it is that our sample results will match the actual population parameter. Therefore, the proportion from a sample size of 500 would be more likely to be closer to \(20\%\) than the proportion from a sample size of 50.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Law of Large Numbers
In understanding the law of large numbers, it's essential to recognize how it applies in the context of statistical sampling. This foundational principle suggests that as a sample size increases, the sample's average is likely to be closer to the average of the whole population.

In the given exercise, for instance, when the number of students sampled goes from 50 to 500, the law of large numbers tells us that the proportion of students in the larger sample who participate in the recycling program should more closely reflect the true population proportion—which in this case is known to be 20%. This happens because the larger sample is more representative of the population, reducing the effect of outliers or anomalies.
Sample Proportion
When discussing the sample proportion, we're referring to the percentage of the sample that meets a certain criterion—in our textbook exercise, it's the proportion of students participating in the textbook recycling program.

Sample proportion is a glimpse into the population's behavior, giving us a statistical estimate. However, sample proportions can vary from one sample to another, demonstrating what is known as sampling variability. It's important to note that sample proportions are estimates of the true population parameter, and their accuracy depends on the sample size and randomness of the sample. In our case, neither the sample of 50 nor the sample of 500 students will perfectly mirror the actual 20%, but the larger sample should yield a more precise estimate.
Population Parameter
A population parameter is a value that describes a characteristic of an entire population, such as its average or proportion. It's a fixed value, though often unknown, and we use sample statistics to estimate it.

In the context of our exercise, the population parameter is the true proportion of college students who participate in the textbook recycling program, which is stated to be 20%. Obtaining this parameter directly may require impractical efforts, like surveying every single student. Therefore, we use a random sample to estimate this parameter, acknowledging that sampling variability comes into play, and larger samples tend to provide a more accurate estimate of this true parameter due to the law of large numbers.
Random Sample
The concept of a random sample is crucial in statistics because it ensures that every individual in the population has an equal chance of being included in the sample. This methodology helps in reducing biases and increasing the likelihood that the sample represents the population well.

In the exercise, students are being randomly selected to estimate the proportion of participants in the recycling program. The randomness of the selection is vital as it underpins the validity of the sample proportion to estimate the population parameter. When randomness is maintained, the results from a sample—especially a larger one—are more likely to be generalizable to the population thanks to reduced systematic error.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

To determine if patrons are satisfied with performance quality, a theater surveys patrons at an evening performance by placing a paper survey inside their programs. All patrons receive a program as they enter the theater. Completed surveys are placed in boxes at the theater exits. On the evening of the survey, 500 patrons saw the performance. One hundred surveys were completed, and \(70 \%\) of these surveys indicated dissatisfaction with the performance. Should the theater conclude that patrons were dissatisfied with performance quality? Explain.

Bob Ross hosted a weekly television show, The Joy of Painting, on PBS in which he taught viewers how to paint. During each episode, he produced a complete painting while teaching viewers how they could produce a similar painting. Ross completed 30,000 paintings in his lifetime. Although it was an art instruction show, PBS estimated that only \(10 \%\) of viewers painted along with Ross during his show based on surveys of viewers. For each of the following, also identify the population and explain your choice. a. Is the number 30,000 a parameter or a statistic? b. Is the number \(10 \%\) a parameter or a statistic?

Suppose you attend a school that offers both traditional courses and online courses. You want to know the average age of all the students. You walk around campus asking those students that you meet how old they are. Would this result in an unbiased sample?

In 2003 and 2017 Gallup asked Democratic voters about their views on the FBI. In \(2003,44 \%\) thought the \(\mathrm{FBI}\) did a good or excellent job. In \(2017,69 \%\) of Democratic voters felt this way. Assume these percentages are based on samples of 1200 Democratic voters. a. Can we conclude, on the basis of these two percentages alone, that the proportion of Democratic voters who think the FBI is doing a good or excellent job has increase from 2003 to \(2017 ?\) Why or why not? b. Check that the conditions for using a two-proportion confidence interval hold. You can assume that the sample is a random sample. c. Construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the difference in the proportions of Democratic voters who believe the FBI is doing a good or excellent job, \(p_{1}-p_{2}\). Let \(p_{1}\) be the proportion of Democratic voters who felt this way in 2003 and \(p_{2}\) be the proportion of Democratic voters who felt this way in 2017 . d. Interpret the interval you constructed in part c. Has the proportion of Democratic voters who feel this way increased? Explain.

a. If a rifleman's gunsight is adjusted incorrectly, he might shoot bullets consistently close to 2 feet left of the bull's-eye target. Draw a sketch of the target with the bullet holes. Does this show lack of precision or bias? b. Draw a second sketch of the target if the shots are both unbiased and precise (have little variation). The rifleman's aim is not perfect, so your sketches should show more than one bullet hole.

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