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a. If a rifleman's gunsight is adjusted incorrectly, he might shoot bullets consistently close to 2 feet left of the bull's-eye target. Draw a sketch of the target with the bullet holes. Does this show lack of precision or bias? b. Draw a second sketch of the target if the shots are both unbiased and precise (have little variation). The rifleman's aim is not perfect, so your sketches should show more than one bullet hole.

Short Answer

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a. The first sketch shows a bias as the shots consistently stray to the left of the bull's-eye. However, precision might still be high if the shots are clustered close together.\n b. The second sketch represents an unbiased and precise shooter. The bullet holes are centered around the bull's-eye and cluster closely together showing little variation.

Step by step solution

01

Draw First Sketch

First, draw a circular target with a bull's-eye in the center. Then, illustrate several bullet holes close to 2 feet left from the bull's-eye. This depicts that the shots are consistently off-target in a specific direction, showing a bias towards left.
02

Interpret First Sketch

The first sketch shows a consistent lack of accuracy, known as a bias, as the shots are consistently off-target to the left. However, the precision may still be high if the shots are consistently clustered close to each other, despite being away from the bull's-eye.
03

Draw Second Sketch

For the second sketch, draw another bull's-eye target. Now, draw several bullet holes very close to the bull's-eye and very close to each other. This will represent an unbiased (accurate) and precise shooter.
04

Interpret Second Sketch

The second sketch shows shots that are both unbiased and precise. This means the shots are centered around the bull's-eye (accurate) and have little variation (precise).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Bias in Measurement
When we hear about bias in measurement, it often refers to a consistent deviation from the true value in a specific direction. Imagine a rifleman who consistently shoots bullets 2 feet to the left of a target's bull's-eye. This scenario perfectly illustrates measurement bias.

Bias indicates a systematic error, where results aren't centered on the true target. Thus, even with highly precise shots, the consistent deviation illustrates bias because every shot misses the bull's-eye consistently in the same way. This doesn't imply a lack of skill; it rather shows a need for calibration or adjustment of the shooting sight.

Here are some key points to understand bias in measurement:
  • It results from systematic errors.
  • It leads to results that are not hitting the true target accurately.
  • Correcting bias often involves recalibration or adjustments.
Understanding and recognizing bias is crucial in ensuring the validity of collected data and interpretations in statistics and measurements.
Statistical Consistency
Statistical consistency often relates to the reliability of a measurement across multiple trials. In simpler terms, if an action (like shooting a rifle) consistently yields similar results (i.e., bullet holes gathered closely together), it is considered consistent.

Let's return to our rifleman. If his shots always cluster together despite being inaccurately 2 feet to the left, they demonstrate statistical consistency. These shots are precise, indicating the rifleman's ability to perform the task reliably, but not accurately toward the bull's-eye.

Key aspects of statistical consistency include:
  • Results are reproducible and display little variation.
  • Measurements are considered robust across trials.
  • Consistency doesn't always equate to accuracy when bias is present.

Consistency is particularly valuable in making predictions and ensuring the reliability of statistical analyses in various fields, promoting trust in repeat measurements.
Variation in Data Analysis
Variation in data analysis sounds technical but is actually straightforward. It concerns how much the data points differ from each other. Lower variation indicates that data points are more closely gathered, while higher variation shows data points spread out over a larger range.

In our example with the rifleman, if his shots around the bull's-eye were tightly grouped, this suggests low variation—which is ideal for demonstrating both accuracy and precision.

Important considerations in understanding variation in data analysis include:
  • Low variation signals consistency and potential accuracy in measurements.
  • High variation can indicate inconsistency, errors, or randomness.
  • Analyzing variation helps in understanding the reliability and quality of data.

Ultimately, understanding variation is key in evaluating the precision and potential biases in data we collect, ensuring sound conclusions and decision-making based on statistical evidence.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A random sample of likely voters showed that \(49 \%\) planned to support Measure \(X\). The margin of error is 3 percentage points with a \(95 \%\) confidence level. a. Using a carefully worded sentence, report the \(95 \%\) confidence interva for the percentage of voters who plan to support Measure \(\mathrm{X}\). b. Is there evidence that Measure \(\mathrm{X}\) will fail? c. Suppose the survey was taken on the streets of Miami and the measure was a Florida statewide measure. Explain how that would affect your conclusion.

A 2017 survey of U.S. adults found the \(64 \%\) believed that freedom of news organization to criticize political leaders is essential to maintaining a strong democracy. Assume the sample size was 500 . a. How many people in the sample felt this way? b. Is the sample large enough to apply the Central Limit Theorem? Explain. Assume all other conditions are met. c. Find a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of U.S. adults who believe that freedom of news organizations to criticize political leaders is essential to maintaining a strong democracy. d. Find the width of the \(95 \%\) confidence interval. Round your answer to the nearest whole percent. e. Now assume the sample size was increased to 4500 and the percentage was still \(64 \%\). Find a \(95 \%\) confidence interval and report the width of the interval. f. What happened to the width of the confidence interval when the sample size was increased. Did it increase or decrease?

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A large collection of one-digit random numbers should have about \(50 \%\) odd and \(50 \%\) even digits, because five of the ten digits are odd \((1,3,5,7\), and 9\()\) and five are even \((0,2,4,6\), and 8\()\). a. Find the proportion of odd-numbered digits in the following lines from a random number table. Count carefully. $$\begin{array}{lll}57.283 \mathrm{pt} & 74834 & 81172 \\\\\hline 89281 & 48134 & 71185\end{array}$$ b. Does the proportion found in part a represent \(\hat{p}\) (the sample proportion) or \(p\) (the population proportion)? c. Find the error in this estimate, the difference between \(\hat{p}\) and \(p\) (or \(\hat{p}-p\) ).

In 2003 and 2017 Gallup asked Democratic voters about their views on the FBI. In \(2003,44 \%\) thought the \(\mathrm{FBI}\) did a good or excellent job. In \(2017,69 \%\) of Democratic voters felt this way. Assume these percentages are based on samples of 1200 Democratic voters. a. Can we conclude, on the basis of these two percentages alone, that the proportion of Democratic voters who think the FBI is doing a good or excellent job has increase from 2003 to \(2017 ?\) Why or why not? b. Check that the conditions for using a two-proportion confidence interval hold. You can assume that the sample is a random sample. c. Construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the difference in the proportions of Democratic voters who believe the FBI is doing a good or excellent job, \(p_{1}-p_{2}\). Let \(p_{1}\) be the proportion of Democratic voters who felt this way in 2003 and \(p_{2}\) be the proportion of Democratic voters who felt this way in 2017 . d. Interpret the interval you constructed in part c. Has the proportion of Democratic voters who feel this way increased? Explain.

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